1	Module 4 JOINT FACT-FINDING 2 Causal Chain analysis Governance analysis Integration and Submission of the TDA
2	STRUCTURE OF THE MODULE
3	OBJECTIVES After examining Module 4, you should be able to: Causal Chain Analysis Describe the purpose and principles Describe different approaches used to develop causal chains Explain the benefits and difficulties in using a sectoral-based approach Define the immediate sources/causes, the underlying socio-economic causes and the root causes of a particular transboundary problem Explain the incorporation of governance analysis into the TDA Critically review causal chains
4	OBJECTIVES (Continued) Integration and submission of the TDA Construct an integrated framework for a draft TDA (based on case study material) Describe the process involved in the production of a draft TDA Explain the most appropriate methods available for presenting data and information Explain the linkages between the content of the TDA document and the SAP Describe the process of submitting the draft TDA for approval
5	PART 1 GENERAL PRINCIPLES
6	WHAT IS CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS? A causal chain is a series of statements linking the causes of a problem with its effects Each link in the chain is forged by answering the question “why? - what is the cause?”
7	3 DIMENSIONS OF A CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS
8	THE SECTORAL DIMENSION IN THEORY IN PRINCIPLE…… in each of the sectors involved there will be a sectoral causal chain, which may be connected at some points to the chain of another sector
9	THE SECTORAL DIMENSION IN REAL LIFE HOWEVER…… Immediate causes, and root causes, tend to span several sectors. It is often only at the underlying causes level that there is a clear sectoral distinction
10	THE GENERIC SECTORS Agriculture Fisheries and aquaculture Urbanisation Industry/mining Energy Production Transport/infrastructure Tourism, leisure and recreation Defence
11	WHY SECTORAL ANALYSIS? BECAUSE…… that is the way modern society is organised and governed HOWEVER…… sectors interact sectors may share root causes one sector may cause effects in other sectors
12	A ‘HOLISTIC’ APPROACH ‘Environmental problems should be dealt with at their roots, irrespective of sectoral or geographical boundaries’ 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development
13	THE CHALLENGE…… …… is how to analyse problems both sectorally and holistically; then develop strategies holistically
14	EXPERTISE NEEDED TO CARRY OUT THE CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS
15	IMMEDIATE CAUSES USUALLY, IMMEDIATE CAUSES ARE: The direct technical causes of the problem. They are predominantly tangible Have distinct areas of impact (with the exception of causes such as atmospheric deposition)
16	IMMEDIATE CAUSES Should be quantified, prioritised and geographically located using maps Pressure Indicators used for quantifying the immediate causes can be used again later as stress reduction indicators in the SAP
17	EXAMPLES 0F IMMEDIATE CAUSES Examples of immediate causes are shown on Page 8 of your Manual Discussion
18	UNDERLYING CAUSES Underlying causes are those that contribute to the immediate causes They can broadly be defined as:
19	UNDERLYING CAUSES
20	EXAMPLE OF UNDERLYING RESOURCES & PRACTICES IN AGRICULTURE…..
21	EXAMPLES OF SOCIAL, ECONOMIC, LEGAL AND POLITICAL CAUSES…..
22	ROOT CAUSES Root causes are often related to fundamental aspects of macro-economy, demography, consumption patterns, environmental values, and access to information and democratic processes In terms of importance to the degradation of aquatic environment, root causes are often the most difficult to assess
23	ROOT CAUSES ROOT CAUSES CAN BE DIVIDED INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES: Governance Population pressure and demographic change Poverty, wealth and inequality Development models and national macro-economic policies Social change and development biases Education and formulation of values
24	GEF INTERVENTION? Most of these are beyond the scope of GEF intervention, but it is useful to document them for two reasons:
25	EXAMPLE OF A ROOT CAUSE
26	PART 2 CAUSAL CHAIN ANALYSIS
27	SECTORAL ANALYSIS OF CAUSAL CHAINS WHAT STEPS ARE INVOLVED?: Initial TTT brainstorming meeting to determine the key elements of each STEP Key members of the TTT should work intersessionally, to finalise the causes and construct the causal chains The complete draft causal chains should be presented to the TTT for their approval
28	POINTS OF ADVICE Do not underestimate the time needed to carry out this process Ensure that the TTT members working on this process cover all the areas of expertise needed Work in a stepwise manner. Start with the immediate causes and work towards the underlying causes Different aspects can be carried out in parallel
29	POINTS OF ADVICE (Cont.) Prior to the workshop (s), have your methodology well developed and understood by key members of the TTT Do not be over ambitious and …….remember:
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32	OTHER APPROACHES USED IN DEVELOPING CAUSAL CHAINS
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35	OTHER APPROACHES USED IN DEVELOPING CAUSAL CHAINS
36	CASPIAN SEA CAUSAL CHAIN
37	BENGUELA CURRENT ANALYSIS TABULAR APPROACH IN 3 SYNTHESIS MATRIX TABLES: Table 1: 7 Major Problems and 3 Main Root Causes Table 2: Areas Where Action is Proposed Table 3: Analysis Table of Causes, Impacts and Solutions of Identified Problems
38	BENGUELA CURRENT ANALYSIS
39	Potential difficulties in developing causal chains
40	Governance Analysis in the TDA
41	Why Governance Analysis? BECAUSE…… Governance frameworks provide the context within which human actions (whether as drivers or as responses) take place Without a basic understanding of the institutional relationships and responsibilities at all levels, and existing policy/legal frameworks, decisive issues may be overlooked or wrongly perceived, and impractical recommendations may emerge
42	What should governance analysis consist of? Governance analysis should describe the dynamic relations within political and social structures that underpin such aspects as legislative and regulatory frameworks, decision-making processes and budgetary allocations.
43	CROSS-CUTTING CAUSES IDENTIFIED AS GOVERNANCE ISSUES Example: Underlying causes of eutrophication: Ineffective national/regional policies/management plans Deficiencies in institutional capacity Deficiencies in legislation Deficiencies in enforcement
44	PART 3 PRODUCTION & SUBMISSION OF COMPLETE DRAFT TDA
45	PROCEDURE WHO IS RESPONSIBLE? The Project Manager OPTIONS TO CARRY OUT THE INTEGRATION: Appointment of a consultant/specialist/academic to act as a single author reporting to the Project Manager Appointment of TTT experts to draft individual Chapters of the TDA , with an appointed TTT Manager as a focal point reporting to the Project Manager TTT experts all contribute to the drafting process, and report individually to the Project Manager
46	DRAFTING THE TDA
47	THE TDA REVIEW PROCESS & SUBMISSION Review Steps Main stakeholder meeting (may include review by a wider audience) Review meetings for the Interministry committees.
48	RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TDA AND THE SAP A good TDA will make it easier to develop logical, sustainable and politically acceptable solutions The findings from the TDA, particularly those relating to the priority problems, sectors and causes will be used in the first stages of the SAP development The long-term Eco/WR QOs should flow from the priority problems, sectors and causes identified in the TDA SAP development should involve developing a matrix of options and identifying which part of the TDA causal chain they address