Trainee Manual
Module 4
TRAINING COURSE ON THE TDA/SAP APPROACH IN THE GEF
INTERNATIONAL WATERS PROGRAMME
TRAINEE MANUAL
MODULE 4: JOINT FACT-FINDING 2 - CAUSAL CHAIN
ANALYSIS, GOVERNANCE ANALYSIS, INTEGRATION AND
SUBMISSION OF THE TDA
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MODULE 4
JOINT FACT-FINDING 2
9
Causal Chain analysis
9
Governance analysis
9
Integration and Submission of the TDA
1. This Module
This module and Module 3 cover the two stages of the execution of the TDA, which are
carried out by the Technical Task Team after the project development phase (covered in
Module 2).
This module deals with the completion of the TDA, which was started in Module 3. Module
3 reached the point where the transboundary problems were identified and prioritised, and
their environmental impacts and socio-economic consequences established.
Module 4 has two parts. The first is the main subject of the module the development of
causal chains for the priority transboundary problems, including the role of governance
analysis.
The second part concerns the integration of the component parts of the TDA and its
submission as a draft document.
The formulation of the SAP is covered in Module 5.
1.1 Stepwise approach to joint fact-finding
The flow diagram shown in Figure 1 identifies the major steps taken towards the development
of the TDA document in both Modules 3 and 4.
Each step described in this flow diagram is further expanded in Sections 3 and 4 of this
module.
You will find a contents list of Module 4 at the end of this document.
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Description
Module
section
TDA preparation
Module 3
information and data `stock taking' exercise
3.1
Identification and initial prioritisation
Module 3
Identification of transboundary problems
3.2
Initial prioritisation of transboundary problems
3.3
Analyse impacts/consequences of each problem
Module 3
Analysis of environmental impacts
4.1
Assessment of socio-economic consequences
4.2
Detailed final prioritisation of transboundary problems
4.4
Causal chain analysis
Module 4
Analysis of causal chains (identification of immediate,
3.1
underlying and root causes of each priority transboundary
problem)
Governance analysis
3.4
Production and Submission of Complete Draft TDA
Module 4
Integration of the component parts of the TDA
4.1
Drafting the TDA
4.2
The TDA review process and submission for final approval
4.3
Figure 1 Major steps taken towards the development of the Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis
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1.2 Module Objectives
At the end of the module, you should be able to:
Causal Chain Analysis
1. Describe the purpose and principles of causal chain analysis, the difficulties of identifying
causes, and the complexity of the process.
2. Describe different approaches used to develop causal chains (Case studies 1 to 6).
3. Explain the benefits and difficulties in using a sectoral-based approach.
4. Define the immediate sources/causes, the underlying socio-economic causes and the root
causes of a particular transboundary problem.
5. Explain the incorporation of governance analysis into the TDA.
6. Critically review causal chains.
Integration and submission of the TDA
7. Construct an integrated framework for a draft TDA (based on case study material).
8. Describe the process involved in the production of a draft TDA.
9. Explain the most appropriate methods available for presenting data and information.
10. Explain the linkages between the content of the TDA document and the SAP.
11. Describe the process of submitting the draft TDA for approval.
Module Activities
In this module, you will be invited to:
1. Complete a short self-assessment test.
2. Complete three exercises analysing the approach used in several real case-
studies.
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2. General principles
2.1 What is causal chain analysis?
A causal chain is a series of statements linking the causes of a problem with its effects. Each
link in the chain is forged by answering the question "why? - what is the cause?"
A causal chain must be described for each priority transboundary problem which, as you saw
in Module 3, will already have been analysed as far as its environmental impacts and socio-
economic consequences1. These therefore form the starting-point for the casual chain analysis.
At its simplest, a causal chain is one-dimensional like an iron chain:
Problem
Immediate Cause
Underlying Cause
Root Cause
But in our transboundary problems there are always two other dimensions:
Interlinking between several causes and the same effect, or the same cause
producing several different effects;
Sectoral: Each sector (Agriculture, Transport, etc.) has its own set of causes and
effects, but these interact with other sectors.
The diagrams on the next page illustrate these other dimensions.
Figure 2 merely reminds you that in each of the sectors involved there will be a sectoral
causal chain, which is connected at some points to the chain of another sector.
1 In the DPSIR framework discussed in Module 3, immediate physical causes are known as `Pressures' and
underlying social and economic causes are known as `Drivers'.
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Urbanisation
Industry
Immediate Transport
Causes
Immediate
Energy
Causes
Immediate
Fisheries
Causes
Immediate
Agriculture
Underlying
Causes Immediate
Underlyi
Causes
ng
Causes Immediate
Causes
Underlying
Causes
Causes
Underlyi ng
Causes Underlyi ng
Root
Causes Underlying
Root
Causes
Causes
Causes
Root
Causes
Root Root
Causes
Causes
Root
Causes
Figure 2 - The Sectoral Dimension in Theory
Unfortunately, the sectoral split in causal chains is not quite as simple as Figure 2 suggests.
Immediate causes, and root causes, tend to span several sectors. It is often only at the
underlying causes level that there is a clear sectoral distinction where each sector may have
causes of a different nature. The picture is not so clear, as Figure 3 tries to suggest.
Immediate Causes
Underlying
Causes Underlying
Causes Underlying
Urbanisation
Causes Underlying Underlying
Industry
Causes
Underlying
Causes
Transport
Causes
Energy
Fisheries Agriculture
Root Causes
Figure 3 - The Sectoral Dimension in Real Life
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The effect of this complication will be seen later, when a step-wise approach to developing
the causal chain is proposed.
2.2 The Generic Sectors
The sectors selected for illustration in Figures 2 and 3 are generic, not necessarily the way the
government structure of any individual country. Generic sectors are used wherever possible
when constructing causal chains, because of their ease of use. Formal sectors (e.g. ministries)
in individual governments differ widely in their titles and mandates. For example, in some
countries, "urbanisation" issues may be the responsibility of various ministries as well as
regional administrations and municipalities. In the case of "fisheries", this sector is sometimes
included as part of the Ministry of Agriculture.
But it is usually possible to aggregate information into the following generic set of sectors:
·
Agriculture
·
Fisheries and aquaculture
·
Urbanisation
·
Industry/mining
·
Energy Production
·
Transport/infrastructure
·
Tourism, leisure and recreation
·
Defence
2.3 Reaching a Holistic View through a Sectoral Approach
As indicated above, the analysis has to be carried out sector by sector, because that is the way
modern society is organised and governed. However:
9
sectors interact
9
sectors may share root causes
9
one sector may cause effects in other sectors
and so on.
This fact led the UN Conference on Environment and Development, in 1992, to stress that
environmental problems should be dealt with at their roots, irrespective of sectoral or
geographical boundaries. This has been called a "holistic approach". The challenge is how to
analyse problems both sectorally and holistically; then develop strategies holistically; and
finally design responses which act within the sectoral and geographical boundaries of society.
The causal chain approach described here is a response to this challenge.
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Causal chain development is not an end in itself; it is an analytical tool which provides
information for further decision-making steps, at later stages of the TDA/SAP process.
A mixture of expertise is needed to carry out the causal chain analysis: scientific for the
immediate causes, and social and economic for the underlying causes, because immediate
causes are predominantly physical, whereas the underlying causes are predominantly social
and economic.
2.4 Immediate causes
Immediate causes (sometimes known as primary causes) are usually the direct technical
causes of the problem. They are predominantly tangible (e.g. enhanced nutrient inputs, and
with distinct areas of impact (with the exception of causes such as atmospheric deposition).
But at this starting-point in the chain, there is a danger of confusing transboundary problems
and immediate causes.
For example, `pollution hot spots' is a term that often confuses causes and problems. The
problem in this case is chemical or biological pollution. What is commonly described as a
`hot spot' is the cause (e.g. a polluting factory or sewage discharge). The consequence to the
environment may be the death of aquatic species.
Immediate causes, being usually technical in nature, should be quantified, prioritised and
geographically located using maps. Indicators used for quantifying the immediate causes can
be used again later as stress reduction indicators in the SAP (see Module 5).
Examples of immediate causes for 3 transboundary problems (modification of stream flow,
chemical pollution and loss or modification of ecosystems) are shown in Table 1.
2.5 Underlying causes
Underlying causes are those that contribute to the immediate causes. They can broadly be
defined as:
Underlying resource uses and practices, and their
related social and economic causes.
Resource uses and practices can include:
· land use
· waste discharges
· damaging or unsustainable practices
· uses of water (diversion, storage etc).
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Table 1 - Examples of immediate causes
Problem
Immediate cause
Modification of stream
Changed diversions:
flow
Domestic and industrial water supply
Agricultural uses
Trans-basin transfers
Changes in storage:
Reservoirs
Lakes
Changes in land use:
Deforestation
Changes in agricultural practice
Artificial banking of rivers
Chemical pollution
Pollution from diffuse sources
Runoff
Emissions from storage of chemical products
Solid waste, liquid wastes
Emissions from transport
Accidental releases (e.g. shipping, industry)
Pollution from point sources
Operational discharge of liquids and gaseous effluents
Emissions from storage of chemical products
Solid waste, liquid wastes
Emissions from transport)
Loss or modification
Loss or modification of aquatic habitats
of ecosystems
Changes in land use (Urbanisation, agro-forestry, etc.)
Introduced species
Changes in the sediment transport regime
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The social and economic causes can include:
· increased sectoral development
· investment, operation and maintenance
· waste minimisation procedures
· demand and supply side management, etc.
Example
A typical agricultural practice contributing to eutrophication for example, would be
the excessive application of fertilizers. One reason for excessive fertilizer
application is the use of economic subsidies and the lack of `polluter pays' taxes.
To identify these underlying causes we need to understand which sector they fall in (e.g.
within agriculture or industry), and the governance framework within which they operate.
Unfortunately, different sectors often act independently. This makes it very difficult to
achieve a coordinated inter-sectoral response. Although both policymaking and information
are generally sharply divided between sectors, their environmental impacts are not.
2.6 Root causes
Beyond the underlying social and economic causes and sectoral pressures are the root causes
of environmental degradation.
Root causes are often related to fundamental aspects of macro-economy, demography,
consumption patterns, environmental values, and access to information and democratic
processes. Most of these are beyond the scope of GEF intervention, but it is useful to
document them for two reasons:
1. Some proposed solutions may be unworkable if the root causes of the problem
are overwhelming.
2. Actions taken nearer to the root causes are more likely to have a lasting impact
on the problem.
Root causes can be divided into the following categories:
·
Governance
·
Population pressure and demographic change
·
Poverty, wealth and inequality
·
Development models and national macro-economic policies
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·
Social change and development biases
·
Education and formulation of values
In terms of importance to the degradation of aquatic environment, root causes are often the
most difficult to assess. Within each of the above categories, the underlying causes or
pressures will link to numerous social/economic/governmental causes, at scales and levels
that may vary significantly from region to region.
For example, in the case of eutrophication, a root cause might be a cultural change in diet
such as an increase in meat consumption that leads to a market demand for cheap meat, and
the intensification of animal farming resulting in higher nitrogen and phosphorus emissions.
Clearly the GEF would not be able to intervene here, but we must understand the driving
force for the chain when deciding whether or not to intervene at all.
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Self-assessment Test 4.1
At this point, you have covered all the main principles of causal chain analysis, and you may
want to check what you have learnt with a short test. After this you will be invited to analyse
some real case-studies.
1. Indicate whether each of the following statements is True or False:
True False
A causal chain should be analysed for each
a)
priority transboundary problem.
The immediate causes of an problem are often
b)
predominantly social / economic.
Underlying causes usually span several sectors.
c)
Generic sectors are not necessarily the way the
d)
government structure is organised.
The health sector is not normally included in a
e)
casual chain study.
The study of immediate causes is mainly a
f)
scientific or technical analysis.
2. The term `Governance' embraces actions in several fields which are permanent and
on-going, such as laws and policies. Can you name any active responses to a
situation which are of a short-term or fixed-term nature.
Answer: ...........................
3. When a causal chain analysis has shown that existing legislation in the area needs to
be harmonised, what deeper solution might be indicated by a governance analysis?
Answer..........................................................................................
...........................................................................
Correct answers are given in the pink pages at the end of
this module.
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Exercise 4.1 General principles of Causal Chains
Now please analyse how a causal chain analysis worked out in actual practice in the South
China Sea TDA. You will find this TDA on the CD-ROM disc.
The South China Sea
Causal Chains
Although causal chains were not presented in the South China Sea TDA, causal
chain analysis was done by each country, for each identified water-related
problem, prior to the development of the national reports.
Some of the outputs from this process are presented in Table 3.70, pp. 76-98).
In addition, the immediate and underlying causes of each principal transboundary
problem were described in detail in the TDA text
Review Chapter 3 (State of the Environment) and consider the following:
Q.1 Do you feel that the overall approach is logical? Is it easy to navigate and
interpret the results?
Q.2 This approach does not use causal chains (tabular or flow diagrams). Much of
the information is provided in the text. In your opinion, does the lack of causal
chain diagrams or tables make it difficult to conceptualise the hierarchy of the
causes?
Q.3 How would you present the information in this TDA?
Q.4 Can you locate the root causes of the problems in the TDA?
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Exercise 1 (continued)
Root causes are often difficult to track down. As a practice for this, you may like to try the
following exercise, on the Mediterranean Sea TDA that you reviewed in Module 3.
The Mediterranean Sea
Causal Chains
A similar approach to the Black Sea and Benguela Current TDAs was used in the
1997 Mediterranean Sea TDA. The 2003 Mediterranean TDA has not undertaken
casual chain analysis although the `root' causes of each problem are listed.
Review Section 1 (Perceived Major Problems) and Section 2 (Analysis of Problems
and their Root Causes) in the 1997 TDA and consider the following:
Q.1 Do you feel that the overall approach is logical? Is it easy to navigate and
interpret the results?
Q.2 Examine the perceived major problems in Table 1.1 and the problems and
their root causes in 2.1.1.1.Is the linkage obvious? How does this compare to
the approach used in the Benguela Current TDA?
Q.3 Do you feel that the root causes are well defined in this example?
Review Section 10 (issue Impact Matrix) and the general text for the 2003 TDA and
consider the following:
Q.4 The root causes are presented in the Issue/Impact Matrix (Section 10). Do you
feel that the root causes are well defined in this example?
Discuss these questions with the Tutor, Project Manager
and your colleagues
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3. Causal chain analysis
3.1 Sectoral analysis of causal chains
As discussed earlier, the causal chain approach recommended here represents a co-ordinated
response to the causal chain problem in a way that transcends sectoral and geographical
boundaries, to achieve a holistic result. It examines the separate role of various economic
sectors in a given region and then integrates the results in a single framework.
This `sectoral analysis' approach helps to translate the findings into potential actions in the
SAP.
Figure 4 shows the various steps in constructing a causal chain using this approach. Each step
is described below. Please also refer to the causal chain diagrams for the Dnipro Basin TDA
(Figures 5 and 6) as these are used as examples to illustrate each step.
It is advisable to kick off with an initial TTT brainstorming meeting to determine the key
elements of each of these steps. Following this, key members of the TTT should work
intersessionally to finalise the causes and construct the causal chains. Finally, the complete
draft causal chains should be presented to the TTT for their approval. Further details on this
process are described in Section 3.3.
3.1.1 Identify the immediate causes of each problem
The first step in this process is the identification of the immediate causes of each
transboundary problem. It is possible that a number of them will have been identified during
the stakeholder analysis and the earlier stages of the TDA development.
Remember from Section 2.4, immediate causes (sometimes known as primary causes) are
usually the direct technical causes of the problem. They are predominantly tangible (e.g.
enhanced nutrient inputs, and with distinct areas of impact (with the exception of causes such
as atmospheric deposition).
3.1.2 Identify the sectors that contribute to the problem
In parallel with the identification of the immediate causes, the TTT should also identify all of
the relevant sectors that are contributing to each transboundary problem.
We recommend the following generic sectors as a starting point: agriculture; fisheries and
aquaculture; urbanisation; industry/mining; energy production; transport/infrastructure;
tourism, leisure and recreation.
3.1.3 Link the sectors to the appropriate immediate causes
In this step it is necessary to link the sectors and the immediate causes for each transboundary
problem. It is also useful at this stage to determine which sectors and immediate causes are of
greatest priority.
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For example, agriculture, industry and urbanisation may all play an important
role in eutrophication whereas fisheries and aquaculture, and transport may
only play a minor role.
In the case of agriculture, the immediate causes may be diffuse sources of
pollution from run-off and point sources from emissions from the storage of
liquid animal wastes.
3.1.4 Identify all the underlying resource uses and practices
For each transboundary problem and immediate cause the TTT will need to determine the
underlying sectoral resource uses and practices.
As described in Section 2.5, underlying sectoral resource uses and practices are those that
contribute to the immediate causes and can include causes such as land use; waste discharges;
damaging or unsustainable practices; uses of water (diversion, storage etc).
For example, the underlying resource uses and practices in agriculture that
contribute to eutrophication could include:
· Inefficient agricultural practices
· Inadequate
waste
management
· Lack of storage facilities for liquid and solid wastes
· Lack of cultivation margins
· Over application/ incorrect use of fertilisers in agriculture
· Over
ploughing
· Concentration of agro-industrial facilities and Intensive livestock
production
3.1.5 Identify the underlying social, economic, legal and political causes
The TTT must also determine the social, economic, legal and political causes that link to the
underlying sectoral resource uses and practices and contribute to the immediate causes.
For example, the social, economic, legal and political causes that contribute to
eutrophication (from agriculture and a number of other sectors) could include:
· Lack of human/ technical capacity
· Limited capital Investment
· Lack of land tenure
· Lack of incentives (subsidies)
· Inadequate economic sanctions (taxes)
· Deficiencies in implementation of regulations, monitoring and
enforcement
· Ineffective national/regional policies/management plans
· Deficiencies in institutional capacity
· Deficiencies in legislation
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Please note, at this level, many of the causes are cross-sectoral (e.g. limited capital
investment, or deficiencies in the implementation of regulations, monitoring and
enforcement). Furthermore, these causes are often very close to, or indeed, may be the root
cause of the transboundary problem.
3.1.6 Link the resource uses and practices, and social, economic, legal and
political causes
This step is potentially very difficult and will require good leadership from the TTT
facilitator/manager. At this point it is necessary to link the resource uses and practices, and
social, economic, legal and political causes. This can be done in one of two ways:
(a) Sectorally, i.e. by repeating the cross-sectoral causes in each sector (e.g. ineffective
national/regional policies/management plans may be repeated for agriculture, industry,
urbanisation etc.)
(b) Intersectorally, i.e. all of the sectors are linked towards the top of the causal chain (e.g.
deficiencies in institutional capacity could be common to all sectors).
The simplest approach is (a), purely because not all of the resource uses and practices, and
social, economic, legal and political causes are cross-sectoral which can result in confusion
when trying to ascertain the linkages. Figures 5 and 6 show how both approaches can be
visually portrayed. Figure 4 shows a sectoral causal chain whereas Figure 6 describes the key
cross-cutting causes (or intersectoral causes).
This stage of the casual chain is best accomplished intersessionally by a smaller working
group made up of key TTT members.
3.1.7 Determine the root causes
Finally, the TTT needs to determine the root causes that drive the underlying social and
economic causes and sectoral pressures.
As described in Section 2.6, root causes are often related to fundamental aspects of macro-
economy, demography, consumption patterns, environmental values, and access to
information and democratic processes.
Of course, most are beyond the scope of GEF intervention but as described in Section 2.6, it is
useful to document them for two reasons:
· Some proposed solutions may be unworkable if the root causes of the problem are
overwhelming.
· Actions taken nearer to the root causes are more likely to have a lasting impact on the
problem.
Therefore it is important to identify where the root causes are having most effect. One way of
doing this is shown in Figure 5, where the root causes are identified by the use of small
arrows.
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Identify the immediate causes of each issue
Examples: Point or diffuse sources of pollution; changes in land use; abstraction of water
Identify the sectors that contribute to the issue
Examples: Industry, agriculture, urbanisation
Link the sectors to the appropriate immediate causes
For each sector, identify all the underlying resource uses
and practices that contribute to each immediate cause
Examples: Failures in operation and maintenance; excessive demand;
inefficient use of abstracted water, drainage of land
For each sector, identify the underlying social, economic,
legal and political causes of each immediate cause.
Examples: Lack of finance/capital investment; human/technical
capacity, lack of incentives/tariffs, ineffective policy; deficiencies in
legislation
Determine the root causes
Link the resource uses and practices,
and social, economic, legal and political
Examples: Population pressure, poverty
causes
THE CAUSAL CHAIN !
Fig. 4 - The Stepwise Sectoral Analysis Approach to Developing a
Causal Chain
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3.2 Other approaches used in developing causal chains
This section describes a number of different approaches that have been used to develop causal
chains. Some follow the GEF recommended approach whereas others don't. Further, some are
very complex and others very simplistic. Please acquaint yourself with each.
3.2.1 Dnipro Basin TDA
A good example of the development of causal chains was the Dnipro Basin TDA, a causal
chain for which is shown in Figure 5.
Here each causal chain was substantiated with text that described and quantified the
immediate causes, the underlying sectoral causes, priority inter-sectoral issues and a
justification for the priority sectors.
A further refinement of this process is shown in Fig 6 below. This useful conceptual device
(called the SAP decision-making management tool) shows how some underlying resource
uses and practices are sector specific, while others cut across several sectors. This also applies
to some of the underlying political, economic and governance causes of the problem. The
identification of cross-cutting (or `over-arching') causes is an important part of the approach.
The development of the causal chains was undertaken over a series of regional TTT
workshops and was continued between sessions by selected members of the TTT and
international experts. Considerable effort was required to develop them and several iterations
of the analysis were required, with a significant input from the international experts.
However, the result of this process was a set of well prepared and very detailed causal chains
for the priority problems.
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This figure is presented in a
separate PowerPoint file
in the supporting materials for
this Module
Figure 5 - Causal chain for the problem of eutrophication
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This figure is presented in a
separate PowerPoint file
in the supporting materials for
this Module
Figure 6 - Dnipro Pollution - Cross-cutting and Sector Specific Causes
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3.2.2 Caspian Sea TDA
The Caspian Sea TDA also attempted a sectoral analysis of root, primary and secondary
causes. This work was done over 2 regional workshops and the results were presented in
Volume 2 and 3 of the TDA.
An example of a causal chain from the Caspian Sea TDA is given in Fig.7. Each causal chain
was supported by information on the major causes, sectors and stakeholders. Again, as with
problem prioritisation, the Caspian Sea TDA encouraged the participation of the stakeholder
group. The Stakeholder Analysis questioned approximately 50 survey participants on the root
causes of the 6 existing/emerging problems which were ranked as low, mid and high priority.
DAMAGE TO SHORE ZONE INFRASTRUCTURE
INSUFFICIENT
INADEQUATE USE OF
AREA
COASTAL AREA
RESOURCES
Narrow co
astal
Narrow coastal zones on
Historical
Non-existent
zones as marine
Eastern side due to
development of
integrated coastal
alluvial strips
bordering to deserts
coastal areas
area management
Natural conditions
·
Non-existent knowledge about water fluctuations
(geo
morphology, climate, flooding)
·
Weak economic situation
·
Increase of population
·
Inadequate enforcement of existing regulatory
instruments
· Inadequate
legislation
·
Insufficient regional planning (legislation, planning
procedures, funding, investments)
Figure 7 - Caspian Sea Causal Chain
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3.2.3 The Benguela Current TDA tabular approach
The Benguela Current TDA presents the causes of the problems in an elegant and logical set
of tables (examples of which are presented in Tables 2 and 3 below).
The Synthesis Matrix lists the 7 perceived major problems, their major root causes and 3
activity areas where action is proposed. A second set of tables' link the activity areas in the
Synthesis Matrix with their causes, impacts, socio-economic consequences and solutions.
Explanatory text was also provided for each table.
This approach is relatively straightforward but the linkages between problems, immediate
causes and underlying sectoral causes is lost.
3.2.4 TDAs that used other approaches
You may want to look at some of the other TDAs on the course CD ROM. Some points you
may observe are:
Causal chain analysis was not carried out in the Lake Tanganyika TDA, although an
examination of the immediate causes (termed the specific problems) of the four main threats
to biodiversity was carried out. These were ranked (low, medium or high) according to the
severity of problem; the feasibility of the potential solutions, and any additional benefits
gained. The root causes were not determined although four crosscutting institutional problems
were identified. These were: lack of resources; poor enforcement of existing regulations; lack
of appropriate regulations for Lake Tanganyika; and lack of institutional coordination.
Causal chains were not presented in the South China Sea TDA, although prior to the
development of the national reports causal chain analysis was done by each country for each
identified water-related problem. Some of the outputs from this process are presented at the
end of the TDA. The tables describe the economic and social value, and the disturbances and
threats at specific locations (e.g. Mekong River, Lake Songkhla) in the individual countries
that make up the South China Sea TDA. The immediate and underlying causes of each
principal transboundary problem were described in the TDA text. Unfortunately, although
these were described in some detail, the lack of causal chain diagrams or tables makes it
difficult to conceptualise the hierarchy of the causes.
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Table 2 - Benguela Current TDA Synthesis Table
MAJOR PROBLEMS
MAIN ROOT CAUSE
1 Complexity of ecosystem and high degree of
·Changing state of the Benguela
variability (resources and environment)
·Inadequate information and understanding
·Difficulty in monitoring and assessment
·Poor predictability
2 Inadequate capacity development (human
and infrastructure) and training
·Colonial/political past
·Institutional downsizing and brain drain
·Limited inter-country exchange (training)
3 Poor legal framework at the regional and
·Regionally incompatible laws and regulations
national levels
·Ineffective environmental laws and regulations
4 Inadequate implementation of available
·Inadequate compliance and enforcement (over
regulatory instruments
fishing, pollution)
·Indifference and poor communication
·Posts not filled (some inappropriately)
5 Inadequate planning at all levels
·Inadequate intersectoral coordination
·Poorly planned coastal developments
·Limited time horizon of planners
·Rapid urbanisation and informal settlements
6 Insufficient public involvement
·Lack of awareness and public apathy
·Conflicts about rights of access
7 Inadequate financial mechanisms and
·Low country GDPs
support
·Ineffective economic instruments
·Insufficient funding for infrastructure and
management; poor salaries
Areas Where Action is Proposed
A
Sustainable management and
·Facilitation of optimal harvesting of living resources
utilization of resources
·Assessment of mining and drilling impacts and policy
harmonization
·Responsible development of mariculture
·Protection of vulnerable species and habitats
·Assessment of non-harvested species and role
B
Assessment of environmental
·Reducing uncertainty and improving predictability
variability, ecosystem impacts
·Capacity strengthening and training
and improvement of
·Management of consequence of harmful algal blooms
predictability
C
Maintenance of ecosystem
·Improvement of water quality
health and management of
·Prevention and management of oil spills
pollution
·Reduction of marine litter
·Retardation/reversal of habitat destruction/alteration
·Conservation of biodiversity
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Table 3 - Benguela Current TDA Synthesis Table
Benguela Current TDA - Analysis table of causes, impacts and solutions of identified problems
Risk/
Socio-economic
Trans-boundary
Activities/
Problems Causes Impact
Priority
Uncertainties
consequences
consequences
solutions
A1. Non optimal
Fishing
High by-catch &
Irreversible
Variable and
Most harvested
Provision of
1
harvesting of living overcapacity
undersize catch
ecosystem change uncertain job market resources are
information: to
resources:
shared between
facilitate regional
Inadequate tools
Fisheries impacting
Biodiversity
Loss of national
countries or cross
assessments of
Non optimal
productivity
Change
revenue
national borders.
shared resources
harvesting includes
cycle
Over fishing in one
and ecosystem
over harvesting,
Non-sustainable
country can cause
impacts.
such as overfishing,
utilization of
Habitat destruction Lack of food
depletion in
as well as wastage
resources
Ecosystem change
security: artisanal
neighbour country. Joint surveys and
through dumping of
Collapse of
/industrial
assessments
1
bycatch and the
Lack of
Resource depletion
commercially
Common problems
catching and
collaborative
important stocks
Erosion of
dumping of under-
assessment/
Gathering and
Human population
sustainable
size fish. It also
monitoring
Shared solutions
calibration of
movements (local &
livelihoods
includes not taking
baseline information
regional)
1
advantage of
Inadequate
Missed opportunities
resources with the
information
Analysis of
Large variation in
(under-utilization &
potential to offer
socioeconomic
landings
wastage)
sustainable
consequences for
Inadequate
1
development
the whole
management
Loss of competitive
opportunities (e.g.
Variation in food
ecosystem
edge on global
seaweed, some
supply for birds, seals
markets
invertebrates). This
Inadequate control etc.
Establish a regional
often results from a
forum for stock and
lack of technology or Lack of
Conflict (e.g. artisanal
ecosystem
knowledge of the
collaborative
vs. commercial vs.
assessment and
2
opportunities
management of
recreational; conflict
annual advice
available.
shared resources
with mining)
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3.3 Potential difficulties in developing causal chains
As shown above, different approaches have been employed in different regions to determine
the causes of environmental degradation in the aquatic environment. As a general rule they
can be divided into two groups:
· Table (or matrix) based causal chains are generally simpler to produce but provide less
information and do not show linkages between causes.
· Flow diagrams are more difficult to construct but they are generally more informative
and show the linkages between causes.
Causal chain type
Advantages and disadvantages
Table or matrix
Simpler to produce
(e.g. Benguela current)
Conceptual y easy for the expert to produce
Provide less information
Difficult to show linkages between causes
Conceptual y difficult for the reader to understand
More difficult to identify SAP interventions
Flow diagram
Generally more informative
(e.g. Dnipro Basin)
Show linkages between causes
Work well using the sectoral approach
Conceptual y easy for the reader to understand
Difficult to construct
Conceptual y difficult for the expert to produce
Time consuming
In both cases, there are difficulties. Some points of advice are:
· Do not underestimate the time needed to carry out this process. This will not be
completed in one TTT workshop. It will probably need a number of sub meetings or
workshops and the work will need to be continued between sessions.
· Ensure that the TTT members working on this process cover all the areas of expertise
needed. In particular, good social, legal, political and economic experts will be required.
· Work in a stepwise manner. Start with the immediate causes and work towards the
underlying causes (see Figure 4).
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· Although causal chains need to be produced step by step, different aspects can be
carried out in parallel. For example, separate working groups can develop the root
causes and carry out the institutional analysis.
· Try to be well prepared prior to the main causal chain workshops. Have your
methodology well developed and understood by key members of the TTT.
· The causal chain process can be difficult for people to conceptualise, so ensure that the
TTT are adequately briefed prior to any workshop and do not be over ambitious.
A simple chain that clearly reflects the situation in a region
will be more useful than a complicated chain
that is difficult to understand.
3.4 Governance Analysis in the TDA
In parallel with the development of causal chains, the TTT needs to carry out a detailed
governance analysis. Note: In order to understand the dynamics and synergies between the
causes of transboundary problems and possible failures in governance, it is vital that there is
regular feedback between those carrying out the causal chain analysis and those undertaking
the governance analysis.
The follow section gives an overview of the process. A more detailed explanation is given in
Module 6.
Governance analysis should describe the dynamic relations within political and social
structures that underpin such aspects as legislative and regulatory frameworks, decision-
making processes and budgetary allocations. In carrying out the causal chain analysis, many
cross-cutting underlying causes will be found to be governance issues. For example, in the
eutrophication causal chain described above, the following higher level root causes identified
are governance issues:
- ineffective national/regional policies/management plans
- deficiencies in institutional capacity
- deficiencies in legislation
- deficiencies in enforcement
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The absence of effective governance is not in itself the cause of
a pressure on the environment. It is rather a failure to deal with a
pre-existing cause.
For example, lack of enforcement of pollution control regulations is not only a cause of
pollution, it is also a result of weak governance. External interventions can deal both with
removal of the causes (e.g. zero waste technology) and with improvement of governance itself.
The governance analysis explained in Module 6 provides an overview of basic institutional or
policy/legal frameworks. The TTT must be familiar with these draft documents before
undertaking the causal chain analysis. The reason for this is that governance frameworks
provide the context within which human actions (whether as drivers or as responses) take
place.
Without a basic understanding of the institutional relationships and responsibilities at all
levels, and existing policy/legal frameworks (what has been done, what has worked, what has
not), decisive issues may be overlooked or wrongly perceived, and impractical
recommendations may emerge.
For example, the causal chain exercise may reveal that, apparently:
9
the absence of more stringent regulations are behind a particular problem
yet the governance analysis could reveal that existing regulations would be
enough, but are not enforceable because there are overlapping responsibilities
between two agencies, both of whom are short of financial and human resources,
so there is little incentive to ensure compliance;
9
legislation for a particular area needs to be harmonized
yet the governance analysis could reveal that most of the existing legislation is
outdated and that there are conflicts with other sectoral policies, so there is a need
to reformulate the nature of the problem and the overall policy;
9
institutional weakness in a government agency is the reason behind the lack of
compliance with certain regulations
yet the governance analysis could reveal that there are strong Community Based
Organisations (CBOs) that have been sidelined; that this is a substantial part of the
problem; and that their full participation could increase levels of compliance at a
much lesser cost.
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A governance failure for example inadequate formulation, implementation
and enforcement of water quality regulations can have cross-cutting
impacts on a range of issues highlighted in a causal chain.
Governance analysis can be a challenging exercise, given the complex relationships by which
societies are governed, and the sectoral character of human organisation. However, as the
causal chain approach described in this module has a sectoral structure, this complexity can be
handled.
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Exercise 4.2 - Alternative Approaches
Having seen alternative approaches to causal chain analysis, you may wish to confirm your
appreciation of the alternatives by trying the following exercise. In this you are asked to
consider the Dnipro and the Benguela Current cases jointly.
The Dnipro Basin TDA used an approach similar to the `Stepwise Sectoral Analysis
Approach' to developing a causal chain. The immediate causes, sectors and
underlying causes are presented in a single flow diagram for each priority problem.
The Benguela Current TDA presents the causes of the perceived major problems in a
Synthesis Matrix (Level 1, p.14) and a set of more detailed Analysis Tables (Level 2,
pp.19-60). Explanatory text was also provided for each table.
Q.1
Do you feel that both overall approaches are logical? Is it easy to navigate
and interpret the results?
Q.2 The development process in constructing these causal chains as the
example of the Dnipro is complex, but what are the advantages of this
approach? The tabular approach used by the Benguela Current TDA is
simple to develop but what are the disadvantages of this approach?
Q.3
What method would you suggest for your project?
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4. Production and Submission of Complete Draft TDA
4.1 Integration of the component parts of the TDA
The various TTT meetings conducted during the TDA development will have produced a great
deal of material. This now needs to be integrated into one document.
The work of integration of the various components is conducted under the supervision of the
Project Manager, but can be carried out in a number of ways:
·
Appointment of a consultant/specialist/academic to act as a single author
reporting to the Project Manager
·
Appointment of TTT experts to draft individual Chapters of the TDA , with an
appointed TTT Manager as a focal point reporting to the Project Manager
·
TTT experts all contribute to the drafting process, and report individually to the
Project Manager.
4.2 Drafting the TDA
Irrespective of the approach used, the TDA document should follow standard principles.
Executive Summary
There should be a jargon-free Executive Summary, no more than 2 pages long.
A good executive summary will sell your TDA. Remember that the TDA will be given to
politicians, policy makers (national and international), donors and managers. They will not
read the entire document.
The Main Text
This should be lucid and concise.
A verbose and long-winded document is difficult to navigate and interpret. Worse still, it will
not be read!
Don't present too much text.
Don't overburden the document with pages of figures and tables. Supporting data (either
figures or tables) should be presented in separate Annexes.
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Language
If the TDA is not written in English, a translation will be needed (for the GEF, UN
implementing agencies, and international donors). It may be useful to hire a native English
expert to fully edit the translated document. Don't use a non-expert, because technical
language is used.
Maps
It is important to include simple maps (either sketch, GIS or photographic) illustrating the
geographic scale and scope of the priority transboundary problems, impacted areas and the
location of immediate causes (such as hot spots, river diversions, urban developments, etc.).
An example is given in Figure 8 on the next page.
Technical Reports
Complex technical reports should be published separately or as annexes.
Contents List
Provide a Contents List and a Glossary of all terms employed. Examples of content lists from
the Dnipro Basin and the Benguela Current are shown in Tables 5.2 And 5.3.
Acknowledgements
Include a full list of contributing specialists, and annexes containing lists of identified
stakeholders.
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Sketch Maps to be provided
Figure 8 Two simple maps illustrating the geographic scale and
scope of two priority transboundary problems, their impacted areas
and the location of the immediate causes.
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Table 4 - Example of a TDA contents List the Dnipro Basin
Executive summary
1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1 Background
2.2 Dnipro Basin TDA methodology
2.2.1 Identification of the priority transboundary problems
2.2.2 Development of an indicator based approach for the state of the environment report
and environmental impact assessment
2.2.3 Development of causal chains for the priority transboundary problems
3. Description of the Basin
3.1 Physical and geographical characteristics
3.1.1 Water resources and major water bodies in the Basin
3.1.2 Land resource
3.1.3 Forests
3.1.4 Mineral resources
3.1.5 Biological resources
3.1.6 Nature reserves and protected areas
3.2 Socio-economic situation
3.2.1 Demographic processes
3.2.2 Migration processes
3.2.3 State of economy in the Dnipro Basin
3.2.4 Industry
3.2.5 Agriculture
3.2.6 Social development and living conditions in the Dnipro Basin
3.2.7 Municipal utility sector
3.2.8 Sanitary situation
3.2.9 Water-borne diseases
3.2.10 Water uses in the Basin
3.3 Ecological status of the Basin
3.3.1 Global trends in the environmental situation in the Dnipro Basin
3.3.2 Review of the 2000-2001 field survey results. Assessment of impact of
transboundary pollution transport on the environmental situation in the Basin (local
and global effects)
3.3.3 Identification of hot spots and evaluation of their potential transboundary impact
3.3.4 Radioactive pollution sources within the Dnipro Basin
4. Priority Transboundary Problems
4.1 Key transboundary problems and priority scores
4.2 Key sectors and immediate causes
4.3 Hydrological problems
4.3.1 Modification of hydrological regime of surface waters
4.3.2 Changes in the groundwater regime
4.3.3 Flooding events and elevated groundwater levels
4.4 Water resource pollution problems
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Table 4 - Example of a TDA contents List the Dnipro Basin
(Continued)
4.4.1 Chemical pollution
4.4.2 Microbiological pollution
4.4.3 Radionuclide pollution
4.4.4 Suspended solids
4.4.5 Eutrophication
4.4.6 Solid waste
4.4.7 Accidental spills and releases
4.5 Modification and loss of ecosystems or ecotones and decreased viability of biological
resources due to contamination and disease
4.6 Impact on biological and genetic diversity
4.7 Priority transboundary problems, immediate causes and sectors
4.8 Root causes of transboundary environmental problems
5. Institutional, Legal and Policy Factors to Overcome
5.1 Political map of the Dnipro Basin
5.2 National environmental strategies adopted by the riparian countries
5.3 National environmental programmes
5.4 Key areas of national environmental policy development in the riparian countries
5.5 Institutional framework of environment protection and management in the riparian
countries
5.6 Environmental legislation of the riparian countries of the Dnipro Basin
5.7 Water quality regulations
5.8 Legal framework for international cooperation in the Dnipro Basin
5.9 The need for further development of environmental legislation in the riparian countries
6. Public and Stakeholder Participation
6.1 Introduction
6.2 Tasks, objectives and activity areas of environmental NGO's
6.3 Structure of public environmental organisations
6.4 Environmental NGO membership
6.5 Relations of Environmental NGOs with other Social Institutions and Stakeholder Groups
6.6 Environmental NGOs and the Dnipro Basin Rehabilitation Programme
7. Findings and Conclusions
7.1 Suggestions to the National Plans and Strategic Action Programme
7.2 Proposed options for addressing the identified problems
Glossary of terms used in the TDA
Abbreviations and acronyms
Annex 1. Pressure, state and impact indicators developed
Annex 2. Definition of terms used in casual chain analysis
Annex 3. Participants in the TDA process
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Table 5 - Example of a TDA contents List Benguela Current
Background and Introduction
The Benguela: a unique environment
Fragmented management: a legacy of the colonial and political past
The need for international action
The success story of BENEFIT
The emerging BCLME Programme
What has been achieved
Towards a sustainable future: the next steps
Users Guide to the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
Definitions and TDA objective
Design of the TDA
(a) Level One: Synthesis
(b) Level Two: Specifics
More information
BCLME Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
Geographic scope and ecosystem boundaries
Level One: Synthesis
Level Two: Overview
Analysis Tables and Explanatory Notes
Synthesis Matrix
A: Sustainable management and Utilization of resources
B: Assessment of Environmental variability, ecosystem impacts and
improvement of predictability
C: Maintenance of ecosystem health and management of pollution
Supporting Documents
Report on First Regional BCLME Workshop
Report on Second Regional BCLME Workshop
Thematic Reports 1-6
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4.3 The TDA review process and submission for final approval
Review process
The review of the draft TDA should involve at least two key meetings. The first should
involve the main stakeholders and may include review by a wider audience according to the
public involvement plan. The second should be a series of review meetings for the
Interministry committees. For the purposes of both, the draft executive summary should be
made available in relevant languages. The graphical representation of the impacts and
immediate causes (using sketch maps as described above) will also be very useful at this stage.
Submission for final approval
To have official standing, the TDA should be formally adopted by the Project Steering
Committee following any technical and stakeholder reviews that may be advisable. This
adoption gives a seal of authority on the document as an input into the more political process
of the SAP.
4.4 Relationship between the TDA document and the SAP
The TDA is an objective assessment. It is not a negotiated document, and can therefore make
no recommendations for action. However, the findings from the TDA, particularly those
relating to the priority problems, sectors and causes will be used in the first stages of the SAP
development.
The SAP takes the process into the political arena. A good TDA will make it easier to develop
logical, sustainable and politically acceptable solutions. This is why so much emphasis should
be given to the groundwork. The SAP process is described in full in Module 5. However, the
TDA TTT needs to understand how the TDA outputs will be used.
· The first step in the SAP is to examine the `vision' for each priority problem. What would
be an acceptable environmental status signifying a solution for each problem? This
statement of status becomes the long-term Ecosystem Quality Objective. The long term
EcoQOs should be tangible, measurable and easily communicated to the public, and they
should flow from the priority problems, sectors and causes identified in the TDA.
· Following this step, a brainstorming meeting is carried out to ensure full stakeholder
participation in SAP planning. The meeting finalises the work of the TTT and sets the
agenda for the SAP development. The meeting discusses the EcoQOs and agrees on final
drafts. It then examines each EcoQO and identifies possible options for achieving them.
The process involves developing a matrix of options and identifying which part of the TDA
causal chain they address. The matrix should also show priorities, timeframes for
implementation, responsibilities and rough costs.
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Exercise 4.3 - Production and submission of the draft TDA
Please discuss with your Tutor and project Manager how much time you should spend on this
exercise, and whether you should carry it out individually or in cooperation with other
colleagues.
Q.1
You have read that there are three ways in which the TDA integration and
drafting process can be carried out. Which way do you feel is most
appropriate for your current project, and why?
Q.2
Which particular parts of the TDA do you think are most important for the
formulation of the SAP, and why?
Q.3
Based on the Case Studies and the examples described in this module,
draft a Contents List for your TDA.
That is the end of Module 4.
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Correct Answers to Self-assessment Test 4.1
1.
True
False
g)
A causal chain should be analysed for each
priority transboundary problem
h)
The immediate causes of an problem are often
predominantly social / economic
i)
Underlying causes usually span several sectors
j)
Generic sectors are not necessarily the way the
government structure is organised
k)
The health sector is not normally included in a
casual chain study
l)
The study of immediate causes is mainly a
scientific or technical analysis
2. The term `Governance' embraces actions in several fields which are permanent and on-
going, such as laws and policies. Can you name any active responses to a situation
which are of a short-term or fixed-term nature?
Answer: Projects
3. When a causal chain analysis has shown that existing legislation in the area needs to be
harmonised, what deeper solution might be indicated by a governance analysis?
Answer: That the existing legislation is outdated and needs to face up to a
re-formulation of the problem and the overall policy.
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MODULE 4 Contents List
1. This Module
1.1 Stepwise approach to joint fact-finding
1.2
Module
Objectives
2. General principles
2.1
What
is
causal
chain
analysis?
2.2
The
Generic
Sectors
2.3 Reaching a Holistic View through a Sectoral Approach
2.4
Immediate
causes
2.5 Underlying causes
2.6
Root
causes
Self-assessment
Test
4.1
Exercise 4.1 General principles of Causal Chains
3.
Causal
chain
analysis
3.1
Sectoral
analysis
of
causal
chains
3.1.1 Identify the immediate causes of each problem
3.1.2 Identify the sectors that contribute to the problem
3.1.3 Link the sectors to the appropriate immediate causes
3.1.4 Identify all the underlying resource uses and practices
3.1.5 Identify the underlying social, economic, legal and political causes
3.1.6 Link the resource uses and practices, and social,
economic, legal and political causes
3.1.7
Determine
the
root
causes
3.2 Other approaches used in developing causal chains
3.2.1
Dnipro
Basin
TDA
3.2.2
Caspian
Sea
TDA
3.2.3 The Benguela Current TDA tabular approach
3.2.4
TDAs
that
used
other
approaches
3.3 Potential difficulties in developing causal chains
3.4
Governance
Analysis
in
the
TDA
Exercise
4.2
Alternative
Approaches
4. Production and Submission of Complete Draft TDA
4.1 Integration of the component parts of the TDA
4.2 Drafting the TDA
4.3 The TDA review process and submission for final approval
4.4 Relationship between the TDA document and the SAP
Exercise 4.3 Production and submission of the draft TDA
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