Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis - Socio-Economic Assessment
Okavango River Basin Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis: Socio-Economic
Assessment
Final report
J. Barnes. et al.
September 2009
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
____________________________________________
Okavango River Basin Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis: Socio-Economic
Assessment
Final report
J. Barnes, R. Saraiva, G. Mmopelwa, J. Mbaiwa,
L. Magole & D. Wamunyima
September 2009
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Acknowledgements
This study was funded by the Global Environment Facility (GEF), and managed by the
EPSMO/PAGSO Project, through the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) of the United
Nations, and under the overall guidance of OKACOM.
We wish to thank the EPSMO TDA Project Management Team, the Angolan, Namibian and
Botswana country teams, and the Environmental Flows Assessment (EFA) team.
Special assistance, including advice, data, data collection, and data analysis, was received
during the project from C. Rajapakse, B. Aylward, M. Quintino, J. King, C.A. Brown A.
Joubert, H. Beuster, C. Bonyongo, S. Bethune, L. Namene, T. Molefi-Mbui, N. Nashipili, P.
Liebenberg, B. Ngwenya, C. Vanderpost, W. Masamba, M. Chimbari, C.J. Brown, G.
Khwarae, C. Ortmann, M. Pereira, T. Campos de Carvalho and C. Paxton, among numerous
others.
We are grateful to all the people in the basin, natural resource users, farmers, tourism
operators, officials, and others (too numerous to mention by name) who provided data,
information, and responses during surveys and research.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of abbreviations ..................................................................................................... 5
1.
Introduction ..................................................................................................... 10
2.
Methodology .................................................................................................... 11
3.
Basin delineation and socio-economic indicators .................................... 14
4.
Demographic characteristics and trends .................................................... 19
5.
Social, cultural and health characteristics .................................................. 23
6.
Economic characteristics and values ........................................................... 27
7.
Socio-economic scenario analysis ................................................................ 44
7.1 Short term scenario analysis ........................................................................... 44
7.2
Long term scenario analysis ........................................................................... 49
8
Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 64
9
References......................................................................................................... 65
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Table of Figures
Figure 2. 1: Depiction of economic values: direct river system values considered for
the EFA (1), additional broader basin direct values considered for the TDA (2), and
indirect linked values in the national economy (3) ...................................................................... 12
Figure 3. 1: Schematic layout of the integrated units of analysis (IUAs) in the
Okavango river basin. ......................................................................................................................... 16
Figure 3. 2: List of socio-economic indicators used in the EFA and their links to the
broader economy .................................................................................................................................. 18
Figure 4. 1: The estimated human population in the basin (881780) by country,
showing split between urban and rural .......................................................................................... 22
Figure 6. 1: Estimated annual contributions of Okavango river/wetland-based
natural resources to household livelihoods (Live), direct gross national income (Dir
Econ) and direct and indirect gross national income (Tot Econ) in Angola, Namibia,
Botswana (US$, 2008) ........................................................................................................................... 32
Figure 6. 2: Estimated livelihood value of Okavango river/wetland based natural
resource use in Angola in 2008 .......................................................................................................... 34
Figure 6. 3: Estimated livelihood value of Okavango river/wetland based natural
resource use in Namibia in 2008 ....................................................................................................... 35
Figure 6. 4: Estimated livelihood value of Okavango river/wetland based natural
resource use in Botswana in 2008 ..................................................................................................... 35
Figure 6. 5: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 2 in Angola, 2008 ..................................................................................................................... 36
Figure 6. 6: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 6 in Angola, 2008 ..................................................................................................................... 36
Figure 6. 7: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 8 in Namibia, 2008 .................................................................................................................. 37
Figure 6. 8: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 9 in Namibia, 2008 .................................................................................................................. 37
Figure 6. 9: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 10 in Botswana, 2008 .............................................................................................................. 38
Figure 6. 10: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 11 in Botswana, 2008 .............................................................................................................. 38
Figure 6. 11: Estimated total direct and indirect impact of Okavango river/wetland
based natural resource use in the Angolan basin on the Angolan economy in 2008 ........... 39
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Figure 6. 12: Estimated total direct and indirect impact of Okavango river/wetland
based natural resource use in the Namibian basin on the Namibian economy in
2008 .......................................................................................................................................................... 39
Figure 6. 13: Estimated total direct and indirect impact of Okavango river/wetland
based natural resource use in the Botswana basin on the Botswana economy in 2008 ....... 40
Figure 7. 1: The short term implications for livelihoods in the whole Okavango river
basin with present day (PD), low development (Low Dev), medium development
(Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water use scenarios (US$, 2008) .................. 45
Figure 7. 2: The short term implications for direct economic income in the whole
Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low Dev), medium
development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water use scenarios
(US$ 2008) ............................................................................................................................................... 46
Figure 7. 3: Expected short term changes in tourist numbers predicted by tourism
operators in Botswana (% of present day (PD), which equal 100%), in the face of
four different changes to average flooding levels (2008) ............................................................ 47
Figure 7. 4: The short term implications for livelihoods in the Angolan part of the
Okavango river basin with present day (1), low development (2), medium
development (3) and high development (4) water use scenarios (US$, 2008) ........................ 48
Figure 7. 5: The short term implications for livelihoods in the Namibian part of the
Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low Dev), medium
development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water use scenarios
(US$, 2008) .............................................................................................................................................. 48
Figure 7. 6: The short term implications for livelihoods in the Botswana part of the
Okavango river basin with present day (1), low development (2), medium
development (3) and high development (4) water use scenarios (US$, 2008) ........................ 49
Figure 7. 7: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resource use in the Angolan Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios ........................................................................................................ 51
Figure 7. 8: Effect on direct economic contribution of all household use of fish in the
Angolan Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low Dev),
medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water use
scenarios ................................................................................................................................................. 52
Figure 7. 9: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resources use in the Namibian Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios ........................................................................................................ 54
Figure 7. 10: Effect on direct economic contribution of all household use of
river/wetland natural resources in the Namibian Okavango river basin with present
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
day (PD), low development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high
development (High Dev) water use ................................................................................................. 54
Figure 7. 11: Effect on direct economic contribution of river/wetland based tourism
in the Namibian Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development
(Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev)
water use scenarios .............................................................................................................................. 55
Figure 7. 12: Effect on direct economic contribution of household use of floodplain
grass in the Namibian Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios ........................................................................................................ 55
Figure 7. 13: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resource use in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios ........................................................................................................ 57
Figure 7. 14: Effect on direct economic contribution of all household river/wetland
natural resources use in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD),
low development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high
development (High Dev) water use sc ............................................................................................ 57
Figure 7. 15: Effect on direct economic contribution of use of river/wetland natural
resources for tourism in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD),
low development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high
development (High Dev) water use s .............................................................................................. 58
Figure 7. 16: Effect on direct economic contribution of household use of fish in the
Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low
Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water
use scenarios .......................................................................................................................................... 58
Figure 7. 17: Effect on direct economic contribution of household use of floodplain
grass in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios ........................................................................................................ 59
Figure 7. 18: Effect on direct economic contribution of household floodplain grazing
in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development
(Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev)
water use scenarios .............................................................................................................................. 59
Figure 7. 19: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resource use in the Okavango river basin as a whole with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios ........................................................................................................ 61
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Table of Tables
Table 3. 1: description and characteristics of original socio-economic IUAs, which
were carried forward to the consolidated IUA map (Figure 3.1) ............................................... 15
Table 5. 1: Comparative human wellbeing, health, and human development
indicators for Angola, Namibia and Botswana (2008 unless otherwise stated) .................... 24
Table 6. 1: Some economic characteristics for Angola, Namibia and Botswana ................... 27
Table 6. 2: The proportions of household income in Angola Namibia and Botswana
which are derived from river/wetland resources that can be influenced by flow
change ..................................................................................................................................................... 29
Table 6. 3: Estimated contributions of Okavango river/wetland-based natural
resources to livelihoods and the national economies in Angola, Namibia, Botswana
and the basin as a whole (US$, 2008) ............................................................................................... 31
Table 6. 4: Financial and economic analysis of commercial tourism and irrigated
agriculture in the Okavango river basin, Namibia (shading indicates viability) (% or
N$, 2008) ................................................................................................................................................. 43
Table 7. 1: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) for direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Angolan part of the Okavango river basin (US$, 2008) ........... 51
Table 7. 2: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) of direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Namibian part of the Okavango river basin (US$, 2008) ........ 53
Table 7. 3: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) of direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Botswana part of the Okavango river basin (US$, 2008) ......... 56
Table 7. 4: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) of direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Okavango river basin as a whole (US$, 2008) ............................ 61
Table 7. 5: Proportion of income lost by the average rural household in Angolan,
Namibian, and Botswana parts of the Okavango river basin and the whole basin,
with low, medium, and high water use scenarios ........................................................................ 62
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
List of abbreviations
AIDS
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome
ADB
African Development Bank
CBNRM Community-based
natural resource management
EFA
Environmental flows assessment
EPSMO
Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the
Okavango River Basin Project
FAO
Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations
GDP
Gross domestic product
GEF
Global Environment Facility
GEP
Gabinete de Estudos e Planeamentos
GNI
Gross national income
GNP
Gross national product
HDI
Human development index
HIV
Human immunodeficiency virus
IUA
Integrated unit of analysis
MET
Ministry of Environment and Tourism
NGO
Non-governmental organisation
ODMP
Okavango Delta Management Plan
OKACOM
Permanent Okavango River Basin Water Commission
PAGSO
Projecto de Protecção Ambiental e Gestão Sustentável da Bacia
Hidrográfica do Okavango
PRB
Population Reference Bureau
SAM
Social accounting matrix
TDA
Transboundary diagnostic analysis
UNHDR
United Nations Human Development Reports
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
1. Introduction
This document reports on the socio-economic assessment for the transboundary diagnostic
assessment (TDA) of the Okavango River Basin. It forms one of the key supporting
documents for the TDA.
The tasks of the socio-economic assessment team may be described as the following:
· Delineate socio economic areas within the basin that are homogeneous in terms of
livelihoods, household income and economic activity: Integrated Units of Analysis
(IUAs),
· Describe the basin in terms of its demographic, cultural, health, and economic
characteristics, in particular assessing the current link between river resources and
HIV/AIDS,
· Assess livelihoods reliance on river and associated resources for household income
for each IUA within the basin,
· Assess the economic value and economic impact of all river-related natural resource
use for each IUA in the basin and its importance in terms of poverty alleviation, and
development,
· Assess the impact of three examples of water use development scenarios, selected
by OKACOM, on the livelihoods and economic wellbeing in the basin and its
countries.
The core of the TDA has been the environmental flows assessment (EFA) through which a
model of the river basin was developed. The EFA incorporated hydrological flow and flood
models of the basin, which informed biophysical models reflecting conditions in the basin,
which in turn informed socio-economic models assessing livelihoods and economic values in
the basin. The EFA is described in detail in an accompanying background report.
The report contains sections on the approaches and methodologies used in valuation, the
delineation of basin IUAs, the demography, cultural and health characteristics of the basin,
the livelihood and economic values associated with river/wetland resources use, and the
assessment of likely impacts on these values from water use development scenarios.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
2. Methodology
The country teams collated, reviewed and summarised all available published and
unpublished information on the social and economic characteristics in their parts of the
basin. Other related, published and unpublished information on livelihood and economic
values in similar environments and in other river systems of the southern African region was
also scanned. The study drew heavily on the numerous background reports produced by
country and process team members, including those of Bergman (2008), Chimbari (2009),
Liebenberg (2009), Magole (2009), Masamba (2009), Mbaiwa (2009), Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa
(2009), Mmopelwa (2009a, 2009b), Nashipili (2009), Ngwenya (2009), Ortmann (2009),
Paxton (2009), Pereira (2009), Saraiva (2009) and Vanderpost (2009).
A rapid multidisciplinary field survey was carried out by the TDA/EFA core team, with
assistance within each country from the relevant country teams. Eight target sites, three in
Angola, two in Namibia, and three in Botswana, were visited to collect basic data for all
disciplines. Socio-economic data was collected at these sites through focus group
discussion meetings with basin community members and from key informants.
The 12 integrated units of analysis (IUAs), developed in the EFA process (described below),
as relatively homogeneous socio-economic zones, were delineated based on a
multidisciplinary analysis. These were used to guide data gathering, and as the basis for
extrapolation and aggregation of livelihood and economic values for the present day basin.
Two specific surveys were carried out to address important data gaps. First, a detailed
household and community level survey was carried out in the Angolan part of the basin.
Here a stratified sample of 551 households was surveyed in accessible parts of the Angolan
basin in Kuando Kubango (51%), Bié (24%), Huambo (17%), and Huíla (8%). To support the
quantitative survey, qualitative assessment with focus discussion groups and participatory
rural appraisal was also used. The results are presented in Saraiva (2009).
Second, a small quantitative questionnaire survey was carried out among tourism operators
in the Botswana part of the basin. Here a systematic sample of 48 tourism operators, were
surveyed with the aim of measuring the likely effects that river flow change, and associated
flood change, might have on tourism incomes. The results of this were described by Mbaiwa
& Mmopelwa (2009).
Empirical results from literature and the surveys were used to develop natural resource use
and tourism enterprise models. These formed the basis for valuation. Most of the enterprise
models were adapted from those developed during a recent, detailed valuation of wetland
values in the Okavango delta (Turpie et al. 2006).The economic analysis for the EFA model
was focused only on the river and wetland values, i.e., those values that could be affected by
flow change. These included values for household use of river-based natural resources such
as fish, reeds, floodplain grass, floodplain gardens and floodplain grazing, as well as
commercial river- and floodplain-based tourism. For the TDA as a whole, the value of all
natural resource uses including those making up water use development scenarios within
the active basin were included. Figure 2.1 shows how river resources are embedded in and
linked to broader basin resources.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Figure 2. 1: Depiction of economic values: direct river system values considered
for the EFA (1), additional broader basin direct values considered for the TDA (2),
and indirect linked values in the national economy (3)
The economic analyses measured the private wellbeing of the basin inhabitants, as well as
the national wellbeing of the basin countries. Private wellbeing was measured as the net
change in household livelihoods. This is the net gain in welfare, due to the resources of the
river basin and its functions, experienced by households. It is the net profits earned by
households in their income-earning activities. Private wellbeing as affected by intangible
factors such as water quality was subjectively assessed, but not included in livelihood
measures. National wellbeing was measured as the direct net change in national income. In
this case the enterprise models were used to measure the value added to the national
income by the enterprise (see box). The specific national income measure used was gross
national product.
Measurement of the direct contribution to the national income was extended to illustrate the
total direct and indirect impact of resource use the on national economies (Figure 2.1). This
was done using multipliers calculated from social accounting matrix (SAM) models (Lange et
al. 2004; Turpie et al. 2006). National wellbeing as affected by indirect use values, or
ecosystem services, was also measured in terms of national income. National wellbeing as
affected by non-use value (existence, bequest and option value) was assessed in terms of
willingness to pay for preservation at local, national and international levels.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
In all valuation work, values were first estimated in the national currency concerned and then
converted to United States Dollars (US$ or USD) to allow comparison. Exchange rates
applied were those encountered in 2008, where US$1.00 was worth 75.20 Angolan Kwanza
(Kz or AKZ), 8.16 Namibia Dollars (N$ or NAD), and 7.16 Botswana Pula (P or BWP).
Box 1: What is the difference between private and national wellbeing?
Private values effectively measure how the investor, in the basin context usually a
household, loses or benefits from natural resource use. This means his/her net gain from
the activity in terms of either own consumption or money. Thus a fisher household
acquires fishing gear, makes annual expenditures in time, bait and repairs to gear, and
catches fish, either to eat or sell. The difference between the annual value of fish caught
and the annual fishing and capital depreciation costs is the annual profit or loss (the private
livelihood value of fishing). Similarly, in a larger tourism lodge investment the investor
builds a lodge, buying all equipment and vehicles needed. He spends annually on fuel,
food for guests, staff wages, and capital depreciation of loan repayments, and earns
income though guest tariffs. The difference between income and expenditures is the net
profit of the enterprise.
National values effectively measure how the national economy gains or loses from the
natural resource use activity. This means the change in all income, and not just the
profit/loss of the private investor. Thus in a tourism lodge enterprise, income may be
earned by the investor as net profit, the employees as salaries and wages, the owners of
any loan capital invested as interest, the landholders as rentals, and the government
through various taxes and levies. All these income categories constitute the value added
by the enterprise. National income is the aggregate of all the value added in all the
production units of the economy. National wellbeing is measured as the direct net change
in national income. The specific national income measure used is gross national product.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
3.
Basin delineation and socio-economic indicators
Table 3.1 describes 14 zones within the basin, identified as being homogeneous socio-
economically. During the environmental flows analysis (EFA), these were reconciled with
biophysical zones, which had been similarly defined by the biophysical working groups, to
create a map with 12 integrated units of analysis (IUAs). Figure 3.1 shows the schematic
layout of these consolidated IUAs as delineated in the basin. The process is described by
Bethune et al. (2009).
Angolan IUAs 1 to 4 were delineated in the Cubango arm of the basin. In the Cubango arm,
floodplains are rare and river courses are relatively incised. The basement geology has
mostly been exposed, leaving little Kalahari sand cover. The IUAs here were delineated on
the basis of topography, ecology, population density, urbanisation and the future likely water
use developments. Thus, IUA 1 covers the high rainfall, high altitude upper reaches where
parallel tributaries drain an open upland savanna, the soils are medium textured, and there
is a high density of people. Rainfed crop production with maize is the most important land
use. IUA 2, including the town of Cuchi, is similar but lower, less incised, slightly drier,
slightly less densely settled and it contains small areas of Kalahari sand woodlands. It
contained field study site 2, at Mucundi. IUA 3 is specific to the Cuebe river catchment and
includes the city of Menongue. Here the situation is similar to that of IUA 2 but there are
some water quality issues surrounding the city, and there is some irrigation of crops and
plans for much more. The field study site 1 at Capico was included here.
Angolan IUAs 5 to 7 were delineated for the Cuito arm of the basin. These are relatively
uninhabited, pristine, and occupied by Kalahari sand woodlands. Floodplains are more
significant here than in the Cubango arm, and water flow variation is much more seasonally
stable. The three IUAs here were separated on the grounds of rainfall (from humid to semi-
arid), on the basis of crops grown (cassava is the main crop grown in the upper part), the
presence of an urban area (Cuito Cuanavale) and on the basis of future water use
developments (likely to be in the lower reaches). Field study site 3 at Cuito, was situated in
IUA 6.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Additional
Zone Country River
Description
Basic
characteristics
features
Upper Cubango reaches
Dense population, dryland maize dominated
1 Angola
Cubango
from source to line between
-
subsistence production few livestock
Kubango and Mumbué
Several urban
Central Cubango from
Moderate population maize and millet few
zones, irrigation
2 Angola
Cubango Kubango to line between
livestock. Some fish use, charcoal
potential, direct
Mucundi and Machai
production.
water use
Lower Cubango from
Inactive basin low population millet some
3 Angola
Cubango Mucundi to riverine zone
-
livestock
below Catamoué
Upper Cuito from source to
Low population, mandioca production no
Some timber
4 Angola Cuito
140 latitude
livestock.
potential
Some urban
Central Cuito from 140
5 Angola Cuito
Low population, millet and few livestock.
development,
latitude to 160 latitude
timber potential.
Lower Cuito from160
Low population millet few livestock some
Some tourism
6 Angola Cuito latitude to confluence with
timber potential. Flood attenuation. Some
potential
Cubango
timber production
One large urban
110,000 people. Dense population in riparian
Cubango/
Immediate terraces of river
centre (Rundu) and
Angola/
strip. Millet production with livestock fishing
7
Okavang
in Angola and Botswana
associated tourism.
Namibia
(53% of people) and some plant use.
o
from Catamoué to Divundu
Trans border
Irrigation development. Aquaculture.
movement.
Protected areas, Mahango
Okavang
Game reserve, Bwabwata
Tourism, biodiversity protection, Some use
8 Namibia
Tourism potential
o
National Park and
of upland and wetland plant resources.
conservancies
River- based
25,000 people. Wetland plants use (20%)
tourism (mainly
Panhandle from Mohembo
and fish use (11%) important in natural
Botswan
Okavang
angling) fairly
9
to Seronga. Permanently
resource use. Dryland millet production
a
o
important. Potential
flooded wetlands
(9%), livestock (45%) and upland plants use
for wildlife based
(15%) also important.
tourism.
17,000 people. Wetland plants use (9%),
Western edge of Delta, west
Botswan
Okavang
Molapo crop production (6%) fairly important Some Delta-based
10
of Buffalo fence, from Ikoga
a
o Delta
in Natural resource use. Livestock (74%)
tourism.
to 10km south of Nokaneng.
and upland plant use (10%) important.
South western edge of
9,200 people. Limited wetland resource use
Delta SW from Buffalo
Wetland plants (4%) Molapo crops (1%),
Botswan
Okavang
11
fence, between 10km south
mainly in Xudum, Thamalakane channels.
-
a
o Delta
of Nokaneng to 10 km west
Livestock (81%) very important, upland
of Komana.
plants (11%) fairly important.
53,500 people (including Maun). Wetland
South eastern edge of Delta
plants (12%) and fish (1%) and Molapo
Botswan
Okavang
from 10km west of Komana
crops (2%) of natural resources use.
Includes urban
12
a
o Delta
to the Buffalo fence in north Livestock important (64%) and upland plants
centre of Maun.
west and north.
(17%) fairly important. Tourism directed at
Delta very important.
1,500 people. Delta based tourism extremely
important. Small human population makes
Community-based
important use of wetland resources. Fish
Botswan
Okavang
Central Delta north and east
natural resource
13
(26%), Wetland plants (20%), Molapo crops
a
o Delta
of the Buffalo fence.
use (CBNRM)
(5%). Use of upland wild resources (38%)
important.
fairly important and livestock (8%)
unimportant.
All
Urban centres with more than 10,000 people
Urban centres Menongue,
14
countrie
Various
and peri-urban surrounds. Specific demands
-
Rundu, Maun.
s
on river flows, pollution, etc.
Table 3. 1: description and characteristics of original socio-economic IUAs, which
were carried forward to the consolidated IUA map (Figure 3.1)
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Figure 3. 1: Schematic layout of the integrated units of analysis (IUAs) in the
Okavango river basin.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Two IUAs, each with two subdivisions, were defined for Namibia, based on the presence or
absence of a floodplain, flooding regime, and whether or not there is a human population.
IUA 8 covered the river along the Angolan border, where human population density is high
and a moderate floodplain is present. It contained the urban area of Rundu, and field study
site 4 at Kapako. It was subdivided between the parts above and below the Cuito junction,
which differ slightly in terms of seasonal flow regime. IUA 9 covered the river below Mukwe,
where a floodplain is mostly absent and some rocky exposures occur in the river bed. IUA 9
was subdivided into that section with a resident human population and that which is
protected as Bwabwata National Park. It contained field study site 5 at Popa.
Three IUAs were defined for the Botswana part of the basin, based primarily of flooding
patterns. IUA 10 formed the panhandle with a fairly wide, mostly permanently flooded plain
and a moderately dense, relatively ethnically distinct human population. It contained field
study site 6 at Mohembo. Fishing, and non-floodplain crops are characteristic. IUA 11
covered most of the Delta with a complex pattern of seasonal, permanent, frequent, and
occasional flooding. It contained two subdivisions; moderately dense human settlement in
the west, and natural protected areas used mostly for tourism in the north east. Filed study
site 7 at Xakanaka was in the latter subdivision. IUA 12 covered the most distal part of the
active basin and as such contained ephemeral channels and more restricted, less commonly
flooded floodplain. Fairly dense human settlement is present here including the urban centre
of Maun. It contained field study site 8 at Boteti.
The economic activities in the basin were identified and described. They were then
examined and assessed to select those that might exhibit measurable value change if the
river/wetland system would be subjected to flow change. These were then used as the
socio-economic indicators in the EFA process. Figure 3.2 shows the full list of socio-
economic indicators. Most indicators are applicable to all of the eight field study sites and 12
IUAs in the basin. The exceptions apply where, for example, there is no floodplain of
significance, and thus no floodplain grazing or floodplain crop production, or where, for
example, there are no resident people.
It is important to stress that the indicators selected are limited to values that are expected to
change under differing water use scenarios. Some natural resource uses associated with the
riverine environment provide livelihood and economic value but are unlikely to change with
flow change. An example is use of riparian tree fruits, and another is irrigated commercial
agricultural production. Some 2,600 hectares are irrigated in this way in the Namibian basin,
contributing significant income and employment for local residents. But irrigated crop
production draws water regardless of flow change. New irrigation will also form part of water
use development scenarios, itself affecting water flow.
17
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Figure 3 .2 List of socio-economic indicators used in the EFA and their links to the
broader economy
Possible indicators affecting human wellbeing are those related to health and disease, such
as malaria, bilharzia and diarrhoea were examined. These although their incidence is linked
to the aquatic environment were found to not be affected specifically by flow change. Other
possible indicators included natural resource uses such as water lily use (Nymphaea sp.) for
food, and use of the sedge (Cyperus papyrus) for mat making, were rejected as indicators
either because they were considered of small import or because in some sites their use was
unlikely to be affected by flow changes. Further not all indicators have been assigned
values. Where data are unavailable some relatively minor resources have been treated only
in discussion, despite being recognised as possibly responsive to flow change.
The indicators in Figure 3.2 are divided firstly into those affecting both local household
income, or livelihoods (indicators 1 to 8) and the broader economy, and secondly those
impacting directly on the broader economy or on societal well-being (9.1 to 9.4). The table
shows how these all contribute ultimately to overall social and economic wellbeing.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
4.
Demographic characteristics and trends
The human population in the basin is dominantly rural and, for each country, the basin
populations are very remote relative to the capital and the main centres of economic activity.
Table 4.1 shows some indicative figures describing the general demographic features of
Angola, Namibia and Botswana, and then some specific ones for the Okavango river basin
within those countries.
Table 4.1: Comparative demographic characteristics of Angola, Namibia, and
Botswana (2008 unless otherwise stated)
Characteristic Angola
Namibia
Botswana
National values
Population
16,752,000
2,089,000
1,842,000
Population density (people/square km)
13
3
3
Birth rate (number of births per 1,000 people)
47
25
24
Death rate (number of deaths per 1,000 people)
21
15
14
Rate of natural increase (% per annum)
2.7%
1.0%
0.9%
Infant mortality rate (deaths per 1,000 live births)
132
47
44
Total fertility rate (number of children per woman)
6.8
3.6
2.9
Proportion of population aged less than 15 (%)
46%
41%
38
Urbanisation rate (% of population)
57%
35%
57%
Rate of change of urban population (2005-2010, %)
4.4%
2.9%
2.5%
Urban population living in slums (%)
86%
34%
-
Gross national Income (PPP per capita, US$)
$4,400 $5,120 $12,420
Motor vehicles (number per 1,000 people, 2000-2005)
20
-
106
Okavango river basin-specific values
Basin population (estimated, 2008)
505,000
219,090
157,690
Basin population as proportion of national total (%)
3.0%
10.5%
8.6%
Basin households (number)
126,250 35,120 33,550
Basin household size (people)
4.0
6.2
4.7
Urbanisation rate in basin (% of population)
48%
20%
30%
Basin rural population (people)
262 600
175,270
110,630
The national level data were extracted from several websites, including UNHDR Human
Development Reports (http://hdr.undp.org), World Bank Key Development Data & Statistics
(http://web.worldbank.org), and Population Reference Bureau (PRB) (http://www.prb.org).
19
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
The demographic figures at country level provide useful comparison reflective generally of
conditions within the basin. Angola has a population of some 17 million compared with
around two million for each of Namibia and Botswana. The overall national density of people
in Angola is 13 per square kilometer compared with 3 per square km for both Namibia and
Botswana. This reflects the better rainfall and generally higher agricultural productivity found
in most of Angola. Angola has higher birth and death rates than the others and a higher
annual population growth rate (2.7%), compared with the other countries (around 1%).
Over the last 30 years, evidence suggests that Namibia and Botswana have been
undergoing a demographic transition, where, due to factors such as urbanisation, female
education, and generally improving household income, fertility rates and population growth
rates have slowed (Mendelsohn et al. 2002; Dorrington et al. 2006). This can be explained
by the fact that by most measures, social and economic development in Botswana and
Namibia has been good. However, this transition has been overshadowed by the effects of a
very severe HIV/AIDS pandemic which has developed in both these countries in the last 20
years. This has further reduced population growth mainly by increasing mortality rates.
Angola has experienced a much less noticeable demographic transition, with its population
growth rate only very recently showing signs of slowing. This can be explained to a large
extent by the fact that social and economic development has been curtailed by war. Angola
has experienced high rates of urbanisation and this would normally have been a factor
inducing a reduction on birth rates, but urbanisation in this case was primarily displacement
due to war, and it was not accompanied by better education or higher incomes, and most of
the urban populations live without services. Another difference between Angola and both
Botswana and Namibia is the fact that it has not been affected to nearly the same extent as
them by HIV/AIDS.
Conflicting forces appear to be at work in the demography of Botswana and Namibia and
Botswana. Since the 1970s, on the one hand, improved human development indices,
including reduced child mortality, have had the effect of reducing fertility. On the other hand
since the 1990s HIV/AIDS has dramatically increased mortality, including child mortality. The
long term result of these influences is hard to predict, but results of a rigorous study by
Dorrington et al. (2006) would suggest that low population growth rates due to HIV/AIDS will
persist for some time.
With the advent of peace and a resource-rich economy, Angola's population could well be on
a path towards reduced child mortality and a reduced fertility. If the current low influence of
HIV/AIDS can be maintained, this could represent the start of a permanent demographic
transition.
The lower part of Table 4.1 shows demographic data relevant to the basin portions of the
three countries. Based on data from Saraiva (2009), it is estimated that with 505,000 people,
the Angolan basin contains some 3% of the national population. Some 48% percent of this is
urban, within the larger centres including Cubango, Chitembo, Mumbué, Cuchi and the
largest, Menongue, with some 122,300 inhabitants. This is a lower urbanisation rate than
that for the country as a whole, which is 57%, but still very high. As stated, the high urban
proportion is largely the result of war. There appears to be a current tendency for people to
move back to settle on rural land, but this is not rapid because most people lack the means
to start farming, and there is still a threat from un-removed land mines in many areas.
Some 126,250 households are represented in the Angolan basin. The average household
size is 4 persons, which small for the basin as a whole. Why this is so is not clear, given the
relatively high fertility, and it may be another effect of the war. The rural population of the
20
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Angolan part of the basin is the one most relevant to the analysis of river related resource
use, below, is estimated to be 262,600, represented by some 65,650 households. Rural
populations are likely to grow faster than urban ones, and so it might be expected that the
growth rate in the basin has been higher than that for the nation. However, there was likely
some emigration from the basin during the war. It is thought that the population growth rate
in the basin has been and is growing at around 2.5% per annum. The density of the
population in the Angolan basin is less than 1 person per square km, significantly lower than
that for the whole country (13).
Based on data from Mendelsohn et al. (2002) and Mendelsohn & el Obied (2003), it is
calculated that the Namibian part of the basin has an estimated 219,090 people, amounting
to some 10.5% of its national population. Some 94% of these people live within 5 km of the
river. Some 20% of them are urban, living in Rundu. This basin urbanisation rate is lower
than that for the whole country, which is 35%. Household size is some 6.2 persons and thus
the Namibian basin contains some 35,120 households. Most relevant to the analysis of river
related resource use are the rural population and the number of rural households. These are
estimated to be 175,270 and 22,600 respectively. The population density of the Namibian
part of the basin is, unlike that in the rest of the basin, much higher than the national average
for Namibia. This reflects the fact that the active basin here is narrow and that the fairly
significant population is concentrated along the river.
Population growth rate in the Namibian basin population has been very high, up to 7% per
annum between 1981 and 1991 (Mendelsohn & el Obeid 2003). This is partly due to natural
increase, but mainly to immigration from Angola, for security and economic reasons during
the Angolan civil war. The position has since stabilized somewhat and current and future
population growth is expected to be slightly higher than that for the nation as a whole. A rate
of 1.5% has been assumed to reflect future population-driven, natural resource use.
Based on data from ODMP (2008) and Dorrington et al. (2006) The Botswana part of the
basin contains an estimated 157,690 people, which comprises some 8.6% of the national
population. Some 30% of this urban, mostly concentrated in Maun but also in Gumare and
Shakawe. This is lower than the national urbanisation rate of 57%. Average household size
is some 4.7, so that some 33,550 households are present. The rural population, which
primarily makes use of river and floodplain related natural resources, is estimated at
110,630, with 23,540 households. The population density in the Botswana basin was
estimated by ODMP (2008) at 1.1, about one third of the national density.
Detailed analysis by Dorrington et al. (2006) indicates that the population growth in the
Botswana part of the basin has been influenced by the same factors as the national one, but
that the rate is slightly higher. This would make sense, given that the population is more
rural. The current and future rate of growth of the Botswana basin rural population natural
resource use is expected to be in the region of 1.5%. This is based on the projections of
Dorrington et al. (2006), in which the effects of increasing ARV use, and change in fertility,
were taken into account.
Generally, it is clear that the human populations within in the Okavango basin have many of
the characteristics of the broader populations in the countries concerned. However, as can
be expected in parts of those countries that are remote, they tend to be more rural, tend to
have higher population growth rates, and are generally less developed.
21
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Angola Rural
Angola Urban
Namibia Rural
Namibia Urban
Botswana Rural
Botswana Urban
Figure 4. 1: The estimated human population in the basin (881780) by country,
showing split between urban and rural
22
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
5.
Social, cultural and health characteristics
In all parts of the basin outside the bigger towns, land is public, held by the state or the local
traditional authorities. Households throughout practice predominantly small scale traditional
land and natural resource uses. It is common for households and communities to be settled
close to or on river banks or floodplain to give access to water and the richer natural
resources in those setting. Significant parts of the lower basin in Botswana are protected and
given over to conservation and tourism.
There are five ethno-linguistic groups within the population of the Angolan basin. The fairly
densely settled Ombundo occupy the upper reaches of the Cubango. The Ganguela and
Lunda-Kioko are strongly, represented in the centre of, and occupy most of, the study area.
The Namibian border on the west is occupied by the Ambó, and on the east it is occupied by
the Xindonga.
Five ethnic groups occupy the Namibian basin from west to east along the river. These are
listed as Kwangali, Mbunza, Shambyu, Gciriku, and Mbukushu by Yaron et al. (1992).
Linguistically, the first two groups, almost half the people, speak Rukangwali. The Shambyu
and Gciriku speak Rumanyo, and the Mbukushu speak Thimbukushu. About a third of
Rundu residents and 15% of rural inhabitants speak an Angolan language, reflecting their
origin.
Ethnically the Botswana basin population is rather mixed with about seven groups, but it is
dominated by the Bahambukushu in the panhandle area, the Bayeyi in the western delta,
central delta, and south eastern delta, and the Batawana in the southern and eastern parts
of the delta (Turpie et al. 2006).
Table 5.1 shows a selection of indicative national-level social cultural and health
characteristics for Angola, Namibia and Botswana. The data were extracted and synthesised
from several websites, including UNHDR Human Development Reports (http://hdr.undp.org),
World Bank Key Development Data & Statistics (http://web.worldbank.org), and Population
Reference Bureau (PRB) (http://www.prb.org).
23
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Characteristic Angola
Namibia
Botswana
National values
Population with access to improved water sources (2006, %)
51% 93% 96%
Population using improved drinking water (urban, %)
62% 99% 100%
Population using improved drinking water (rural, %)
39% 90% 90%
Literacy rate, ages 15-24 (female, %, 2000-2004)
63% 94% 93%
Literacy rate, ages 15-24 (male, %, 2000-2004)
83% 91% 86%
High school enrolment (female, 2000-2004, % of age group)
17% 66% 75%
High school enrolment (male, 2000-2004, % of age group)
21% 59% 70%
Underweight children, age <5 (%)
28% 20% 11%
Human poverty index (HPI-1) (%) (2005)
89%
26.5%
31.4%
HIV/AIDS among adults, ages 15-49 2001 (%)
1.6% 14.6% 26.5%
HIV/AIDS among adults, ages 15-49 2007 (%)
2.1% 15.3% 23.9%
Undernourished population (2002-2004, %)
35% 24% 32%
Life expectancy at birth (years)
44
47
49
Human development index (1990)
-
0.65
0.68
Human development index (2000)
0.45
0.64
0.62
Human development index (2005)
0.48 0.63 0.66
Table 5. 1: Comparative human wellbeing, health, and human development
indicators for Angola, Namibia and Botswana (2008 unless otherwise stated)
The situation in Namibia and Botswana is generally better than that in Angola. Thus only
about half (51%) of Angolans have access to improved water sources, whereas that figure is
between 93% and 96% in Namibia and Botswana. The access is even lower for rural
Angolans. Current plans suggest that access will be improved significantly within the basin in
the next few years (Administração Municipal do Cuchi 2008; Administração Municipal de
Menongue 2008; GEP/Gabinete de Estudos e Planeamentos 2007; FAO/ADB Cooperative
Programme 2007).
Literacy rates among 19-24 year olds in Namibia and Botswana are high at around 90%
while these are lower for Angola, especially for females, at 63%. Educational enrolment
among high school age people is fairly high in Namibian and Botswana at between 60% and
75%. This is much lower for Angola at around 20%. In Angola some 30% of children under 5
years of age are underweight. This measure is 20% for Namibia and 11% for Botswana. The
incidence of poverty as reflected in the HPI-1 human poverty index is between 25% and 30%
for Namibia and Botswana, while it is much higher for Angola at 89%.
A big difference between Angola and the other countries exists in the incidence of HIV/AIDS.
Among adults it is 2.1% in Angola, but up to 15.3% Namibia and 23.9% in Botswana. The
prevalence grew very fast in the latter two countries between the mid 1980s and the late
1990s (Dorrington et al. 2006). The high rate of growth has slowed, and the proportions of
people infected have tended to stabilise, not increasing very much in the eight years since
2000. The infection rate in Botswana has even gone down slightly.
The effect of HIV/AIDS is to significantly increase mortality among people of reproductive
age and in young children. This has had a large impact on the life expectancy at birth in
24
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Namibia and Botswana, which has been reduced from around 60 years in the early 1990s to
47 and 49, respectively, close to that of Angola which is 44 years. The result is a significant
reduction in population growth. In the last few years, the introduction of anti-retroviral
treatment (ART) programmes has reduced death rates, particularly in Botswana, but this
effect is only partial.
The human development index (HDI) provides a useful overall measure of how a country is
meeting it Millennium Development Goals. It is calculated as an average of three indices: life
expectancy, educational attainment and income. The HDIs presented in Table 3.4.2 that
Namibia and Botswana both have higher values, between 62 and 66, and are classified as
having medium human development, while Angola has lower ones, between 45 and 48, and
is classified as having low human development. These values can be compared with the HDI
for Norway, a developed country, which is 97, and that for Niger, a least developed country,
which is 37.
There is an increase for Angola, between 200 and 2005, but in Namibia and Botswana there
have been declines since 1995. As Levine (2007) shows for Namibia, these declines are due
entirely to the effect of the HIV/AIDS epidemic which has drastically reduced life expectancy,
despite marked improvements in the education and income indices. Botswana and Namibia,
along with several other southern African countries (not including Angola), are unusual in
that their HDIs have been declining.
The social conditions in the Okavango basin parts of Angola, Namibia and Botswana can be
expected to resemble the national level ones fairly closely. In each of the three countries,
partly because the river affects people differently between the countries, and partly because
the countries are themselves different, the prominent social issues differ between them. Data
available tend to reflect this and the discussion below thus highlights the prominent
characteristics for each country.
The main differences are expected to relate to the remoteness of the basin from the national
centres. In the Angolan basin, data from the recent household survey (Saraiva 2009)
indicated that less than 4% of households have access to improved water supplies, much
less than the 51% for the nation as a whole. The results from this survey would also suggest
that households in the basin are more likely to be living in huts of wood, mud and grass,
more dependent on wood and charcoal for fuel, and less likely to have access to electricity,
than in the country as a whole. 54% of rural households and 14% of urban ones make use of
the river system for water.
In Namibia, some good data providing comparison between the socio-economic conditions
in the Okavango basin, as represented by the Kavango Region, and those at national level
are available. A recent poverty analysis (CBS 2008) shows that Kavango has the highest
incidence of poverty among all 13 regions in Namibia. In Kavango, 57% of households are
classified as poor (with expenditure of N$262 or less per adult equivalent per month), and
36% of households are classified as severely poor (with expenditure of N$186 or less per
adult equivalent per month). This can be compared with the incidence for the whole country
where 27.6% of households are poor or severely poor, and 13.8% are severely poor.
In Kavango the incidence of poor among rural households (which make up 80% of the total
number) is 62%, while that among the urban population (20% of the total) is only 33%.The
high incidence of poverty would underline the importance of natural resources harvesting in
the coping strategies of households. Government has an obligation both to target these
households for poverty reduction as well as to avoid interventions which might exacerbate
their poverty. Levine (2007) used a multi-dimensional human poverty index (HPI) which
accounts for survival, literacy and income to show that poverty in Kavango, despite
25
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
remaining the highest among the nation's regions, actually declined between 1991-1994 and
2001-2004.
The high level of poverty is associated with high dependency ratios (around 46% of the
population is below 15 years, or older than 64 years, of age). Data from (Mendelsohn & el
Obeid 2003) indicate that the incidence of HIV infection in the basin is slightly lower than that
for most other northern regions in Namibian as well as slightly lower than for the national as
a whole. Average life expectancy has declined from 57 in 1991 to 40 years in 2000, as a
result of AIDS, and this has impacted negatively on the human development index (HDI),
despite improvements in other HDI component measures such as education and income.
This pattern is the same as that for the nation as a whole, although the national life
expectancy, at 47 is slightly higher. Levine (2007) showed that the average HDI for Kavango
declined from 0.48, between 1991 and 1994, to 0.41, between 2001 and 2004. As expected,
the human development index (HDI) for Kavango is lower than that for Namibia as a whole.
Between 2001 and 2004 the average HDI was 0.41 for Kavango, while it was 0.53 for
Namibia.
High poverty levels have also contributed to high incidence of tuberculosis (TB), malaria,
acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea, and urinary bilharzia, intestinal bilharzia, and
malnutrition in the Namibian basin. Some of these are secondary to AIDS and increased as
a result of the AIDS epidemic. Others such as malaria, which affects half the population each
year, are linked to the summer rains and associated standing water. Urinary and intestinal
bilharzia are water-borne diseases and both are prevalent in the river. Their incidence
appears to have increased dramatically between 1990 and 2000 (Mendelsohn & el Obeid
2003).
Evidence suggests that the Botswana basin has socio-economic conditions that resemble
those of the country as a whole, but that are slightly less favourable. Thus, ODMP (2008)
provided data that suggest the literacy rate is lower than that for the whole country. The
HIV/AIDS incidence between the basin and the country as a whole has been similar on
average and has shown similar pattern.
Overall the data suggest that the Okavango basin contains people who are poorer, less
healthy, and less well educated on average, than those of the countries they represent.
Indeed, as described above, the Kavango region, in the Namibian part of the basin, is the
poorest region in Namibia. This, given the highly unequal distribution of wealth in these
countries, suggests that poverty alleviation in the basin should be a major investment target
for the governments. The ambitious water use development plans inherent in the scenarios
suggest that this is the case, particularly in Angola and Namibia.
Poor rural communities tend to depend on natural resources, more directly so than
communities in urban centres or those involved in commercial economic activities. They
commonly lack alternative ways of making a living. Hudson & Wright (1997) showed that in
Botswana those in the poorest quartile depend even more than others on natural resources.
Wild natural resources such as fish and wild plants, being of open access, commonly
constitute 'safety nets' for poor communities in adverse times. When these natural resources
decline for whatever reason, the poor commonly have few options other than to continue
using them. Pressure on the resources increases and a vicious circle ensues, in which use
becomes less and less sustainable and resources fall under greater and greater pressure.
Change can result from poverty through the responses of governments and others to
alleviate it, but also as a result of the vulnerability of and the responses of the poor to natural
resource decline.
26
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
6.
Economic characteristics and values
The evidence above shows that the Okavango basin is relatively unaffected by human
development. With a few exceptions ecosystem integrity has remained largely intact. This is
not surprising as the basin is remote within all three countries which all have low population
densities. Based on their incomes, Botswana and Namibia can be ranked as being at the
lower end of the medium income category, while Angola is ranked near the upper end of the
low income category. The total income and per capita income values for the three countries
are shown in Table 6.1. Botswana is the richest and Angola is the poorest in terms of per
capita income. The distribution of income in all three countries is uneven. They have Gini
indices, measuring inequality of income, which are among the highest in the world.
Characteristic Angola
Namibia
Botswana
National values
Gross domestic product (US$ billion,
2007)
52.2 7.4 10.8
Gross domestic product (per capita, US$, 2007)
3,068
3,573
5,739
Unemployment rate (2006/7)
20%
34%
18%
Gini index of inequality (2007/8)
- 74.3
60.5
Natural habitat remaining
95% >95% 90%
Table 6. 1: Some economic characteristics for Angola, Namibia and Botswana
Table 6.1 also shows a rough estimate of the amount of natural habitat remaining in each
country. All countries have very high values, and this is also the case specifically within the
Okavango basin.
The economic incomes generated, within the Okavango river basin, are nearly all direct use
values. Resident households derive much of their income from direct use of the basin's
natural resources, and this use is dominated by use of wild natural resources, such as fish,
wood and grass, use of natural habitats for small scale agriculture, such as crop and
livestock production, and use of natural habitats for providing tourism services. Tourism is
very important in the lower parts of the basin and it earns considerable income both for
households, mostly through salaries and wages, and for investors in the broader economies.
Households in the lower parts of the basin earn considerable parts of their income through
local employment in tourism and government, through remittances from non-local
employment, and through pension payments and remittances. In a few localities in Namibia,
river water is extracted for irrigation of commercial crops. The economic value of this is
potentially very high, but driven down by the remoteness of the basin and the long distances
from markets (Liebenberg 2009).
Fish are caught throughout the basin in river channels and on floodplains where seasonal
floods can bring a marked peak in catch. Only in Botswana and only in the Panhandle area
is fishing done commercially in groups of semi-motorised small scale fishers. Elsewhere
27
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
fishing is small scale at household level and traditional gear (locally made traps), gill nets
hook, and line and dugout canoes are used.
Households throughout the basin harvest fuelwood, poles and non-timber forest products in
the form of wild plants and animals for food, medicines, and raw materials. Barnes et al.
(2005) measured the value of forest use in detail for the Kavango Region which embraces
the Namibian basin. It is generally not river/wetland- related, and takes place in the very
extensive humid to semi-arid woodlands of the basin. One forest product that is harvested is
thatch grass. Certain, specific, high quality thatch grass species are also harvested on
floodplains. Reeds and sedges are harvested from the wetter parts of floodplains and
riverbanks, and used for building, and craft making.
Households throughout the basin grow crops. In Angola crop production is the most
important source of household income and food earning some 80% of household income
(Saraiva 2009). Here the sub-humid and humid climate makes it possible to grow crops in
uplands. In the lower semi-arid parts of the basin the growth of crops is carried out in both
uplands and on floodplains, where additional wetness and fertility enhance yields by some
40%. Crop production is small-scale in gardens and tillage is limited largely to that by hand
or by draft livestock. Very limited tractor power is available, and mainly in the Namibian and
Botswana parts of the basin. In Namibia and Botswana crop production is of lesser
importance for households because yields are low and losses to wildlife such as elephant
can be significant.
Livestock are very important for households in the lower basin, providing a range of
household utilities, such as meat, milk, draft power, and store of value. Their value further up
the basin is less, mainly because many households in Angola lack stock, and the money to
buy stock. The keeping of livestock is mostly small scale, household-based, and primarily
subsistence in nature. Some 22% of small scale livestock-keeping value is attributable to
use of floodplain grasslands where wetness enhances production. In Botswana and Namibia
medium scale livestock production takes place around boreholes (cattle posts) in the
uplands away from the river. The value of livestock in the Botswana basin has been studied
in detail by Barnes et al. (2008).
Tourism in the Namibia and Botswana basin areas is overwhelmingly non-consumptive,
nature-based, and focused on wildlife viewing, although some guided recreational fishing
and hunting operations are involved. Medium to large scale lodges and camps with between
10 and 30 beds, serving middle and upper market tourists are most common. Self-drive
camping and guided mobile operations are also present in significant numbers. Nearly all the
value of this tourism is attributable to the presence of the river/wetlands, although the
activities offered can be either land- or water-orientated. Most tourism income for local
households comes through wages and salaries, but to some extent local households directly
provide small-scale services, such as guided canoe trips, to tourists, supplementing the
commercial lodge operations.
Indirect use values, or ecosystem service values, have only been studied in the Botswana
basin (Turpie et al. 2006) and not in great detail. The values involved are dominated by
carbon sequestration, wildlife refuge function, flood attenuation, provision of clean water and
educational-scientific value. Non-use values have been studied even less, and only through
tourists. The global willingness to pay or existence value for the delta is likely to be very
significant as the area is widely known and respected as a conservation site.
The use of natural resources in and out of the wetland areas in Botswana has been studied
and valued in detail by Turpie et al. (2006) and others (Mmopelwa (2009a, 2009b; Mbaiwa
2009; Magole 2009). The use of some 20 different natural resources was studied empirically
28
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
and valued in terms of livelihoods and economic contribution. Further data on values for the
rest of the basin has been provided by Mendelsohn & el Obeid (2004), Mendelsohn et al.
(2006), and Saraiva (2009). Through this work, and through the environmental flows
assessment (EFA) exercise, fairly reliable data are available on the value of use of natural
resources by households in the basin. In particular the natural resources that can be affected
by flow change, i.e., the socio-economic indicators used for the EFA model (Figure 3.2,
above), have been studied in detail.
Table 6.2 derived from Saraiva (2009), Mendelsohn and el Obeid (2003; 2004), Turpie at al.
(2006), and Mmopelwa (2009a, 2009b), shows the estimated proportions of household
income provided by river and wetland natural resources which can be affected by flow
change, i.e., those that formed the EFA indicators. An important influent on this is the
amount of floodplain present, which increases from the upper basin in Angola to the delta in
Botswana. Thus in Angola, households only derive some 19% of their income from
river/wetland resources. There are only limited amounts of floodplain and river wetland
resource use is limited mostly to fish from the river channels, and reeds and grass from the
river banks. As stated, crops are important for Angolan households but these are nearly all
grown in upland positions. Similarly, Angolan livestock grazing, and much thatch grass
harvesting, take place in the uplands, along with all forest products harvesting. Almost no
income is derived from tourism in the Angolan basin.
In Namibia there is a higher incidence of floodplains and a fair amount of tourism
development which allows households in the basin to derive a higher proportion (32%) of
their income from river/wetland resources. The floodplains provide some income from
wetland crop production, where better water relations and humic soils enhance crop
production in small scale gardens. Similarly, as stated Namibian households graze livestock
for part of the time on the floodplain and derive enhanced productivity from the better water
relations and specific grassland communities there. In both cases the enhancement of crop
and livestock value is counted as being river/wetland based. The river and wetlands allow
tourism activities which would not be there without the river. These take the form of some 30
private commercial, medium to large scale lodge investments.
In Botswana the Panhandle and Delta represent a vast floodplain area. The north, west, and
south east parts of this are occupied by rural communities, while the central and north east
parts are reserved for wildlife-based and nature-based tourism. Here the significant
floodplain means that households in the basin derive nearly half (45%) of their income from
river wetland resources. Fish, reeds, wetland grass, floodplain crops (molapo farming), and
floodplain grazing all tend to be more significant than they are in the upper parts of the basin.
As stated, the tourism industry is large, involving approximately 185 medium to large scale
private commercial investments. Basin households in Botswana derive income from these
through wages and salaries, but also though small scale tourism services, craft sales, and in
the form of community-level royalty payments from tourism operators.
Table 6. 2: The proportions of household income in Angola Namibia and
Botswana which are derived from river/wetland resources that can be influenced
by flow change
Country
Source
Whole basin
Angola Namibia Botswana
River/wetland
19% 32% 45% 28%
Upland
81% 68% 55% 72%
Total
100% 100% 100% 100%
29
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Table 6.3 shows the estimated annual livelihood and economic values for those uses
of natural resources and tourism activities in the basin, which can be affected by flow
change. Figure 6.1 shows the annual totals for these livelihood and economic values
for each country.
30
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Value
Livelihoods*
Direct GNI**
Total GNI***
Angola
Fish - household
2,124,000 2,567,000 6,160,900
Reeds - household
575,500
586,400
1,407,300
Grass - household
1,357,400 1,433,400 3,440,100
Gardens - household
29,700
17,700
42,400
Grazing - household
71,800
49,500
118,700
Tourism - household
125,800
125,800
301,900
Household subtotal
4,284,200
4,779,800
11,471,300
Other income (tourism)
125,800
125,800
301,900
Indirect use value
0
0
1,766,000
Non-use value****
0
0
24,500
Angola total
4,410,000
4,905,600
13,563,700
Namibia
Fish - household
1,455,200 1,758,700 4,221,000
Reeds - household
561,100
571,700
1,372,100
Grass - household
1,741,700 1,839,200 4,414,100
Gardens - household
314,400
187,200
449,200
Grazing - household
402,600
277,200
665,200
Tourism - household
3,700,400 3,700,400 7,400,700
Household subtotal
8,175,400
8,334,400
18,522,300
Other income (tourism)
3,700,400 9,549,200
19,098,400
Indirect use value
0
0
5,365,100
Non-use value****
0
0
218,700
Namibia total
11,875,800
17,883,600
43,204,500
Botswana
Fish - household
252,600
305,300
732,800
Reeds - household
336,300
342,600
822,300
Grass - household
535,300
565,300
1,356,600
Gardens - household
113,500
67,600
162,200
Grazing - household
157,400
108,400
260,100
Tourism - household
21,316,300 21,316,300 42,632,700
Household subtotal
22,711,400
22,705,500
45,966,700
Other income (tourism)
21,316,300 55,009,100 110,018,200
Indirect use value
0
0
19,428,600
Non-use value****
0
0
1,904,000
Botswana total
44,027,700
77,714,600
177,317,500
Okavango River Basin
Fish - household
3,831,800 4,631,100
11,114,700
Reeds - household
1,472,900 1,500,700 3,601,700
Grass - household
3,634,300 3,837,900 9,210,900
Gardens - household
457,600
272,400
653,700
Grazing - household
631,800
435,000
1,044,100
Tourism - household
25,142,500 25,142,500 50,335,300
Household subtotal
35,170,900
35,819,600
75,960,400
Other income (tourism)
25,142,600 64,684,200 129,418,300
Indirect use value
0
0
26,559,700
Non-use value****
0
0
2,147,300
Basin total
60,313,500
100,503,800
234,085,700
Table 6. 3: Estimated contributions of Okavango river/wetland-based natural
resources to livelihoods and the national economies in Angola, Namibia,
Botswana and the basin as a whole (US$, 2008)
*Household net income, contributing to livelihoods
**Direct contribution to national economy in the form of gross national income
***Total (direct and indirect) contribution to the broad economy in the form of gross national income, including the
effect of the national income multiplier
****Non-use values presented here are partial ad likely seriously underestimate the real values, particularly in the
lower basin
31
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
There is a striking pattern regarding the river/wetland-based natural resource use between
the countries. Botswana currently generates very significantly more than Namibia, and
Namibia generates significantly more than Angola. Several factors are at work here, the
most important is the very high value of tourism in the model and lower basin. Another is the
fact, as described in Table 6.2, people in the upper parts of the basin derive less of their
income from river/wetland resources. A third factor is that households in Angola are poorer
than those in the lower basin. They currently experience shortages of equipment, gear,
livestock and inputs with which to earn income, a legacy of the civil war.
200,000,000
180,000,000
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
Angola
100,000,000
Namibia
80,000,000
Botswana
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
Live
Dir Econ
Tot Econ
Figure 6. 1: Estimated annual contributions of Okavango river/wetland-based
natural resources to household livelihoods (Live), direct gross national income
(Dir Econ) and direct and indirect gross national income (Tot Econ) in Angola,
Namibia, Botswana (US$, 2008)
It is also clear that the contribution of the Okavango river/wetlands to national economies is
significant. For every dollar contributed to the livelihoods of basin residents, some 1.60
dollars is contributed directly to the national income. If the impact of the income multiplier
(Lange et al. 2004; Turpie et al. 2006), indirect use values, and non-use values are taken
into account, the total impact on the broader economies becomes some $4.00. The
economic contribution of the flow-based natural resources in the Okavango river/wetland
system to the Angolan, Namibian, and Botswana national economies can be estimated. In
terms of direct GNI the river/wetland system contributes 0.01%, 0.23% and 0.45% of the
Angolan, Namibian and Botswana economies respectively. In terms of total (direct and
indirect) GNI the river/wetland system contributes 0.02%, 0.56% and 1.03% of the Angolan,
Namibian and Botswana economies respectively. It can be seen that the contribution in
Angola is small, while it is moderate in Namibia and quite significant in Botswana.
Comparing these figures with those of Table 6.2 above, it can be seen that the river/wetland
32
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
system is very important as a contributor to the livelihoods of people living along the system,
while it is relatively unimportant in the national economic context.
Box 2: How do the different flow related river/wetland natural resource uses contribute
to livelihoods and the national economies?
Where households along the river make direct use of the river wetland resources, for
example when they use fish, floodplain plants and floodplain grazing, they invest directly
in the activity and derive net incomes (in kind and/or in cash), which contribute directly
to their household welfare. These are small scale activities, for which the major input
tends to be household labour. Linkages between these activities and the broader
economies are generally restricted to their purchase of equipment or inputs (backward
linkages to fish net manufactures and suppliers for example), or to any product
processing that takes place (forward linkages to grain milling enterprises for example).
These linkages and the consequent impacts on the national economies are relatively
small.
The other significant flow-based river/wetland natural resource contributor to the
livelihoods of households in the basin is tourism. Here, local households derive
significant amounts of cash income from employment and rentals. Tourism involves large
scale lodge investments, which are relatively complex, capital intensive, and owned as a
rule by formal sector businesses. The livelihoods they provide to local households are
complemented by further income in the form of salaries and wages to other employees,
profits accruing to owners, payments to lenders of capital, and taxes accruing to
governments. Tourism enterprises also have lateral linkages in that tourists spend money
in the country, travelling to and from the lodges, and backward linkages in that lodges
buy most of their capital and operating inputs from other sectors in the broader economy.
The consequent impacts of tourism activities on the national economies are relatively
large, compared with those from household-based enterprises.
33
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Figures 6.2 to 6.4 show the proportions contributed annually by different river/wetland-
based natural resource uses to the household livelihoods in each country. The Angolan
figure shows the importance of harvest of river channel resources such as fish, reeds and
grass. In Botswana other floodplain natural resource uses, such as gardens and grazing,
become a little more important, and wage income from tourism becomes very significant. In
Botswana the very large impact on households from the wetland-based tourism industry
dominates, although households do derive greater amounts of their income from harvest of
river/wetland resources.
Angola Household Income from Okavango River
US$ 4.4 million
2% 3%
1%
Fish
Reeds
32%
50%
Grass
Gardens
Grazing
Tourism
13%
Figure 6. 2: Estimated livelihood value of Okavango river/wetland based natural
resource use in Angola in 2008
34
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Namibia Household income from Okavango River
US$ 8.2 million
18%
Fish
Reeds
45%
7%
Grass
Gardens
21%
Grazing
Tourism
5% 4%
Figure 6. 3: Estimated livelihood value of Okavango river/wetland based natural
resource use in Namibia in 2008
Botswana Household income from Okavango River
US$ 22.7 million
1.1%
1.5% 2.4%
0.5%
0.7%
Fish
Reeds
Grass
Gardens
Grazing
93.9%
Tourism
Figure 6. 4: Estimated livelihood value of Okavango river/wetland based natural
resource use in Botswana in 2008
Variation on between different IUAs in terms of river/wetland based annual livelihood values
is illustrated in Figures 6.5 to 6.10. In Figures 6.5 and 6.6, the difference between the
Cubango and Cuito arms of the basin in Angola is evident. On the Cubango, at Mucundi, in
IUA 2, the river is a single channel with no floodplain, and products of only three river-based
indicators are harvested. At Cuito in IUA 6, there is a floodplain and additional income from
floodplain gardens and floodplain grazing is obtained. In Figures 6.7 and 6.8, the markedly
different livelihood characteristics of IUA 8 and IUA 9 in Namibia are evident. In IUA 8 the full
35
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
range of river and floodplain resources are harvested, while tourism is moderately
significant. In the Popa area, in IUA 9, there are no floodplain resources, but the proximity of
river-based tourism attractions, including the Bwabwata National Park, means that
households derive a significant amount of their river-based livelihoods from tourism. In
Botswana, differences in livelihoods between IUA 10 and IUA 11 are evident in Figures 6.9
and 6.10. Here, again, tourism is the biggest river/wetland-based household income
contributor, but more so in IUA 11.
IUA 2 (Mucundi Site) Household Income from River US$
1.1 million
0%
0%
0%
Fish
33%
Reeds
Grass
52%
Gardens
Grazing
14%
Tourism
Figure 6. 5: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 2 in Angola, 2008
IUA 6 (Cuito Site) Household Income from River
US$293,000
0%
17%
Fish
Reeds
40%
7%
Grass
Gardens
Grazing
25%
Tourism
11%
Figure 6. 6: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 6 in Angola, 2008
36
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
IUA 8 (Kapako Site) Household income from River US$ 7.3
million
Fish
19%
Reeds
40%
7%
Grass
Gardens
Grazing
23%
5%
Tourism
4%
Figure 6. 7: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 8 in Namibia, 2008
IUA 9 (Popa Site) Household Income from River
US$837,000
4% 1%5% 1% 1%
Fish
Reeds
Grass
Gardens
Grazing
88%
Tourism
Figure 6. 8: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 9 in Namibia, 2008
37
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
IUA 10 (Panhandle Site) Household income from River US$
1.9 million
7.5%
Fish
9.9%
Reeds
Grass
20.6%
Gardens
60.6%
Grazing
0.4%
Tourism
1.2%
Figure 6. 9: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource use
in IUA 10 in Botswana, 2008
IUA 11 (Delta Site) Household Income from River
US$ 16.9 million
0.2% 0.4% 0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
Fish
Reeds
Grass
Gardens
Grazing
98.3%
Tourism
Figure 6. 10: Estimated livelihood value of river/wetland based natural resource
use in IUA 11 in Botswana, 2008
38
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Figures 6.11 to 6.13 show how the use of Okavango river basin, flow-related,
river/wetland-based natural resources in Angola, Namibia and Botswana impacts
annually on the broader economies of those countries.
Angola Total Economic Impact of Okavango River
US$14 million
0%
Fish
4%
13%
Reeds
1%
0%
Grass
45%
Gardens
Grazing
25%
Tourism
Function
10%
Nonuse
Figure 6. 11: Estimated total direct and indirect impact of Okavango river/wetland
based natural resource use in the Angolan basin on the Angolan economy in 2008
Namibia Total Economic Impact of Okavango River
US$43 million
1%
3%
Fish
10%
12%
Reeds
Grass
10%
1%
Gardens
2%
Grazing
Tourism
61%
Function
Nonuse
Figure 6. 12: Estimated total direct and indirect impact of Okavango river/wetland
based natural resource use in the Namibian basin on the Namibian economy in
2008
39
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Botswana Total Economic Impact of Okavango River
US$177 million
1.1%
0.5% 0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
Fish
11.0%
Reeds
Grass
Gardens
Grazing
Tourism
86.1%
Function
Nonuse
Figure 6. 13: Estimated total direct and indirect impact of Okavango river/wetland
based natural resource use in the Botswana basin on the Botswana economy in
2008
The Okavango river basin is relatively underdeveloped compared with most other
river basins in southern Africa. The natural systems are reasonably intact, leaving a
number of options open for future economic development. The nature of the developments
will be critical to ensuring that they contribute maximally to the development of the basin
countries while alleviating poverty, particularly in the basin itself. To do this the
developments need to make the most of whatever comparative advantages the basin has for
development.
Studies show that small-scale household uses of natural resources are generally
economically efficient (Turpie et al. 2001, 2006). They have appropriate technology, labour
intensiveness, capital extensiveness, minimisation of risk, and lack of dependence on
markets which makes them suitable for contributing livelihoods and earning income in
remote parts, such as the Okavango basin. Our empirically-based private and economic
budget/cost-benefit enterprise models show that most small scale natural resources are
feasible, with positive contributions to the national economies, which gives them local
comparative advantage.
The very high private and economic values associated with tourism in the basin, most
notably in Botswana but also in Namibia, suggest that tourism developments making use of
the natural river/wetland environment are comparatively advantageous. Indeed, the empirical
private and economic budget/cost-benefit models of tourism developments used in the
analysis above and derived from Turpie et al. (2006) show significant economic viability. As
medium to large scale commercial investments, they are less dependent on proximity to
markets and offer a unique product not attainable anywhere else.
Other options for development in the basin include hydropower generation, irrigated
agriculture, and water extraction for urban use. The socio-economic work did not examine
40
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
the economics of these as they are not considered to be affected by flow change. Their
value is the subject of the macro-economic assessment background report. The only
developments so far are in commercial irrigation, in Namibia, where some 2,600 hectares of
land is irrigated to produce food and high value cash crops.
Nevertheless Schuh et al. (2006) showed commercial irrigation to be only viable if a
significant proportion of the crops planted are of high value. Liebenberg (2009) provided
detailed investment budgets for the examples of irrigated high value crop (essential oils) and
food crop (maize and wheat) production in the Namibian basin. This provided an opportunity
for irrigated crop viability analysis using the same private and economic, budget/cost-benefit,
enterprise models used for tourism. Table 6.4, below shows some comparative results for
tourism and commercial irrigation models.
The results show tourism lodge development to be both financially viable and very efficient
economically. The high value crop irrigation system, as formulated, was not financially
profitable, but it was economically efficient, indicating that it might be economically
appropriate to subsidise it. To achieve financial viability, subsidies would need to amount to
some half the initial capital costs, or half the annual turnover. Food crop production was
found to be both financially and economically unsound. The analysis demonstrates that there
is likely to be a clear comparative advantage in the basin for tourism over commercial
irrigated crops, mainly due to the remoteness of these investments from markets.
41
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
1. Non consumptive tourism (18 bed lodge)
Initial Capital
8,956,111
Annual Turnover
9,986,371
Normal prices
Financial Return
IRR
NPV @ 8%
10 year
8.11%
71,758
20 year
11.96%
4,120,158
40 year
12.87%
6,887,395
Direct Economic Return
IRR
NPV @ 8%
10 year
41.02%
16,522,767
20 year
41.39%
25,310,663
40 year
41.41%
31,617,949
NPV@4%
40 year
60,414,018
2. Irrigated essential oil production (100 ha)
Initial Capital
24,871,606
Annual Turnover
7,824,274
Normal prices
Fuel cost * 0.5
Capital costs * 0.5
Product prices * 1.5
Financial Return
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
10 year
-1.46% -14,210,965 3.77% -4,987,582 10.44%
2,072,423
10.90%
4,629,459
20 year
1.57% -14,915,674 6.73% -2,366,904 13.13%
6,974,352
13.32%
13,482,025
2. Irrigated essential oil production (100 ha) (Continued)
40 year
3.01% -15,316,809 7.78% -533,404 13.75%
10,334,833
13.88%
19,558,255
Direct Economic Return
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
10 year
9.78%
2,299,531
16.65%
8,677,676
27.08%
13,543,073
22.94%
20,017,507
42
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
20 year
11.62%
7,249,468
17.96%
15,365,463
27.76%
21,272,823
24.00%
33,707,351
40 year
12.22%
11,077,120
18.25%
20,328,508
27.85%
26,899,625
24.15%
43,458,404
NPV@4%
40 year
36,793,517
3. Irrigated grain production (100 ha)
Initial Capital
13,678,562
Annual Turnover
4,860,100
Normal prices
Fuel cost * 0.5
Capital costs * 0.5
Product prices * 1.5
Financial Return
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
10 year
Negative -19,101,397 Negative -11,995,982
Negative -9,462,045 -2.21% -7,526,360
20 year
Negative -25,233,761 Negative -15,263,864 Negative -12,071,828 0.97% -7,786,998
40 year
Negative -29,066,525 Negative -17,236,099 Negative -13,678,889 3.07% -7,640,248
Direct Economic Return
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
IRR
NPV @ 8%
10 year
-3.38% -7,128,112 3.77% -2,092,295 6.64% -483,725 13.80%
3,903,470
20 year
-0.64% -7,993,253 6.67% -1,016,483 9.69%
950,193
15.95%
8,481,383
40 year
1.69% -8,186,099 8.01%
7,762
10.75%
2,118,766
16.45%
11,977,522
NPV@4%
40 year
-5,001,794
Table 6. 4: Financial and economic analysis of commercial tourism and irrigated agriculture in the Okavango river basin,
Namibia (shading indicates viability) (% or N$, 2008)
43
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
7.
Socio-economic scenario analysis
The scenarios which were tested on the environmental flows assessment (EFA) model were
four; the 'present day' plus three alternative water use development scenarios. The present
day scenario included all existing water resource developments, notably:
Some 2,600 ha of irrigation in Namibia
The urban water demands of Menongue and Cuito Cuanavale (Angola), Rundu
(Namibia), and Maun (Botswana)
A low growth scenario was based on the continuation of historical growth in water demands
in the three countries. Growth rates in Angola reflected recent acceleration associated with
resettlement in demined areas. Increased water consumption was mainly due to growth in
urban and rural domestic, livestock and irrigation water demands. The largest water
demands were represented by:
Some 3,100 ha of irrigation in Namibia
Some 18,000 ha of irrigation along the Cuebe River in Angola
One storage based and three runofriver hydropower stations in Angola
A medium growth or "businessasusual" scenario included:
Some 8,400 ha of irrigation in Namibia
Development of a first phase of the Eastern National Carrier (17 Mm3/a) for water supply
from the Kavango to Grootfontein and Windhoek,
Some 198,000 ha of irrigation at various locations in Angola
One storage based and four runofriver hydropower stations in Angola
A high growth scenario included:
Some 15,000 ha of irrigation in Namibia
Some 338,000 ha of irrigation at various locations in Angola
Completion of all planned hydropower stations in Angola, i.e. one storage based and nine
runofriver hydropower stations in Angola ,
Completion of a second phase of the Eastern National Carrier (total capacity 100Mm3/a),
Development of a scaled down version of the Southern Okavango Integrated Water
Development Scheme (SOIWD) for urban and industrial water supply from the Delta to
Maun.
At these levels of demand, it was necessary to introduce a hypothetical dam in the upper
basin (Cuchi River) with a capacity of some 500 million m3 to provide for shortfalls in
irrigation water supply and interbasin transfers.
7.1 Short term scenario analysis
Many of the impacts of flow change on the river and the river ecosystem as described in
detail in the EFA scenario reports (King et al. 2009a, 2009b), translate into impacts on the
44
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
livelihoods and economic welfare of the basin's people and economies. In the EFA the
biophysical responses modeled were linked to changes in abundance and availability of
natural resource products used in the basin. These abundance responses were applied to
enterprise models which measure private net incomes (livelihoods) and economic national
income (economic contribution) and which were developed for the natural resource uses.
Thus, flow changes predicted for the water use scenarios were translated into responses
predicting their effects on livelihoods and economies.
Figure 7.1 and 7.2 show the aggregate short term responses to flow change due to the water
use scenarios, in terms of annual livelihoods and the annual direct economic contribution to
national income.
TOTAL riverbased livelihood value (US$)
70,000 ,000
60,000 ,000
50,000 ,000
40,000 ,000
30,000 ,000
Riverbased
livelihood
value
20,000,000
(US$)
10,000 ,000
0
PD
Low D
Med D
High D
Figure 7. 1: The short term implications for livelihoods in the whole Okavango
river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low Dev), medium
development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water use scenarios
(US$, 2008)
45
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
TOTAL direct economic contribution (US$)
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
TOTAL direct economic
contribution (US$)
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
PD
Low D
Med D
High D
Figure 7. 2: The short term implications for direct economic income in the whole
Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low Dev),
medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water use
scenarios (US$ 2008)
Both livelihoods and national income are predicted to decline in the scenarios, with the
medium and high water use options showing a devastating decline. This is primarily as a
result of decline predicted for tourism. A very high value for tourism was measured in the
lower parts of the basin and the scenario impacts on this value were found to be very high
during preliminary response analysis. Because of the heavy significance of the finding, a
supplementary survey was carried out among Okavango delta tourism operators to
determine their perceptions regarding the likely impacts of flow and flood change on their
operations (Mbaiwa & Mmopelwa 2009). Figure 7.3 shows some results from this survey. It
shows a complex short term response, where turnover would drop by some 15% in the face
of changes in the flood regime which would make the delta wetter or drier to different
degrees. The response curve reflecting these values was combined with the responses to
two other tourism influents, channel low-flow levels, and wildlife abundance. Then responses
were applied to the tourism enterprise model to measure changes in occupancy levels and
consequent effects on net incomes (livelihoods) and value added (economic contribution).
The results confirmed the initial findings. Relatively small, sustained reductions in tourism
demand would severely reduce these values.
46
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Tourist numbers
105
100
95
90
Tourist numbers
85
80
75
very low
lower
low
PD
high
Figure 7. 3: Expected short term changes in tourist numbers predicted by tourism
operators in Botswana (% of present day (PD), which equal 100%), in the face of
four different changes to average flooding levels (2008)
Figures 7.4 to 7.6 below show the expected short term impacts on annual livelihoods
separately for each of Angola, Namibia, and Botswana. The results show differences in that
livelihoods are affected more dramatically in Botswana than in Angola and Botswana at the
distal end of the basin. The impact that the scenarios have on tourism is again the main
reason.
47
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Angola Effect of scenario on household
livelihoods US$
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
1
2
3
4
Figure 7. 4: The short term implications for livelihoods in the Angolan part of the
Okavango river basin with present day (1), low development (2), medium
development (3) and high development (4) water use scenarios (US$, 2008)
Namibia Effect of scenario on household
livelihoods US$
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
PD
Low D
Med D
High D
Figure 7. 5: The short term implications for livelihoods in the Namibian part of the
Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low Dev),
medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water use
scenarios (US$, 2008)
48
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Botswana Effect of scenario on household
livelihoods US$
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
1
2
3
4
Figure 7. 6: The short term implications for livelihoods in the Botswana part of the
Okavango river basin with present day (1), low development (2), medium
development (3) and high development (4) water use scenarios (US$, 2008)
By its nature the EFA socio-economic model determined only short term impacts on
livelihoods, and economies, and did not consider medium and long term long adaptation in
the basin tourism sector, or changes such as those expected from human population growth
and tourism demand growth. These were incorporated into the next stage of the analysis,
where each impact in the model was modeled over a 40 year period, incorporating predicted
changes in these factors. Forty year net present values were estimated to provide a more
realistic measure of scenario impact. The results of this are shown below.
7.2
Long term scenario analysis
This section examines how future change is likely to impact on the people of the basin and
their socio-economic wellbeing. From a transboundary perspective, relative gains and losses
between the peoples of the three basin countries, are important. Also important are equity
issues; how might the distribution of income change, and who gains and who loses from
this?
A good idea of likely future pressures and possible consequences to the local population can
be got from the results of the EFA, where the impact of three different water use scenarios
on the natural resource base and the ensuing impact of this change on the socio-economic
environment of the basin were examined. The EFA specifically examined those uses of
basin natural resources that might be affected by flow change. The EFA model, described
above, examined in detail the immediate impact of flow change on the livelihoods of river
basin populations and their direct contributions to local and national economies. It did not
include longer term impacts resulting from adaptation to change, as well as from population
growth, or from the effects of climate change. The analysis was carried further to analyse
how the livelihoods and economic contributions would change in the long term.
49
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
For each scenario, using the immediate impacts as a base, 40 year discounted streams of
expected future direct income streams were generated. These included expected future
population growth, tourism demand growth and expected long term adaptations where
relevant. Thus, growth in natural resources use due to population increase was assumed to
be 1.5% per annum in Botswana and Namibia, and 2.5% in Angola. Tourism demand was
anticipated to grow at 5% per annum on average in all scenarios. Where tourism was found
to collapse as a result of drying of the lower system, its output was assumed to settle at
levels (25%, 10%, and 5% of present day values) depending on the scenario. These levels
were deemed more or less consistent with what one might expect in the surrounding
savannas, or in comparable savanna areas, e.g., Hwange National Park. Further, carrying
capacity limits to growth for certain activities were assumed, +75% of starting output in the
case of tourism, and +100% of starting output in the case of fishing). The adaptation
assumptions were subjective, while assumptions on growth in tourism demand and
populations were more analytical.
Direct contribution to the national income is a comprehensive measure that includes the
basin household net income, as well as the income to other basin investors, and
stakeholders. Household net income has been used as a useful indicator, but the direct
economic contribution provides a better measure the true impact on socio-economic welfare
attributable to activities in the basin. It has thus been used to value change as discussed
below.
Tables 7.1 to 7.4 show how the 40 year net present values of future streams of directly
generated income, for the river/wetland based natural resources uses in the Angolan,
Namibian, and Botswana parts of the basin, and in the basin as a whole, change with the
EFA scenarios for water use.
In Angola the water development scenarios will reduce the direct income derived from
river/wetland natural resources use by some 40%. The effect is the same for all rural
household natural resource use as this makes up nearly all of the income generated. Figure
7.7 shows how the effect would not differ very much between the three water use scenarios.
Among the specific natural resources used, the value of fish would be the most affected with
some 60% of the income lost with each of the scenarios, which again did not differ much in
their impact. Figure 7.8 shows this. The other main river wetland resources used, reeds and
floodplain grass, would lose some 30% of their value with the three water use scenarios.
50
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Low
Med
High
Scenario: Present
day
Development
Development
Development
Net present value @ 4%
Tourism sector
5,866,500
5,866,500
5,866,500 5,866,500
Rural household sector
141,051,200
78,159,800
74,992,500 76,790,800
TOTAL resource use
146,917,700
84,026,300
80,859,000 82,657,300
Fish use
75,322,900
30,267,600
27,270,600 27,128,300
Floodplain reeds use
17,229,100
12,073,000
12,057,800 12,105,700
Floodplain grass use
40,893,300
28,213,300
28,058,200 29,950,800
Floodplain gardens
457,800
457,800
457,800 457,800
Floodplain grazing
1,281,700
1,281,700
1,281,700 1,281,700
Tourism wages
5,866,500
5,866,500
5,866,500 5,866,500
Losses from present day
Tourism sector
0
0
0
Rural household sector
62,891,300
66,058,600 64,260,400
TOTAL resource use
62,891,300
66,058,600 64,260,400
Fish use
45,055,300
48,052,300 48,194,600
Floodplain reeds use
5,156,000
5,171,300 5,123,300
Floodplain grass use
12,680,000
12,835,100 10,942,500
Floodplain gardens
0
0
0
Floodplain grazing
0
0
0
Tourism wages
0
0
0
Table 7. 1: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) for direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Angolan part of the Okavango river basin (US$, 2008)
Angola total direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
160,000,000
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 7: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resource use in the Angolan Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Angola fish direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
80,000,000
70,000,000
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
20,000,000
10,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 8: Effect on direct economic contribution of all household use of fish in
the Angolan Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low
Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water
use scenarios
Table 7.2 shows the effects of the same scenarios on the same river/wetland resource use
values for Namibia. Here the impact of the water use changes on the total income from
river/wetland natural resource uses would be greater than in Angola at around 60%. As the
present day values for Namibia are much larger than those for Angola, the losses are even
greater than would be apparent. Figures 7.9 to 7.12 show various scenario effects for
Namibia from Table 7.2. Figure 7.9 indicates that the low development scenario has a
slightly lesser impact than the others. The loss to the value of all household river/wetland
natural resource use is lesser at around 40%. The very large impact in this part of the basin
is that on tourism sector income. The change in flow resulting from the scenarios would
reduce the income generated by river/wetland tourism by some 75%. Generally the low
water use scenario has a lower impact than the others, with the medium water use only very
slightly better than high water use in terms of impact. An interesting finding is that household
incomes from all of reeds, floodplain grass, floodplain crops, and floodplain grazing are likely
to rise by some 10% with the three water use scenarios. This is due to the fact that certain
resources, most notably river bank, and floodplain, vegetation zones, would increase as a
result of water use developments. The low water use scenario would generate the highest
increase in each case. Overall the amounts involved with these wetland resources are
relatively small, and the overwhelming impact will be with the reduced tourism income.
52
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Low
Med
High
Scenario: Present
day
Development
Development
Development
Net present value @ 4%
Tourism sector
286,183,100 79,677,200 50,273,800
49,576,500
Rural household sector
224,152,200 148,255,900 133,053,600
129,614,200
TOTAL resource use
510,335,300 227,933,200 183,327,400
179,190,700
Fish use
42,983,600 38,501,600 36,319,100
34,586,900
Floodplain reeds use
13,972,500 15,727,700 15,370,100
15,408,900
Floodplain grass use
44,950,300 50,590,400 49,446,400
48,832,500
Floodplain gardens
4,574,000 5,013,300 4,997,200
4,905,800
Floodplain grazing
6,774,200 7,547,400 7,439,400
6,668,900
Tourism wages
110,897,600 30,875,400 19,481,400
19,211,200
Losses from present day
Tourism sector
206,505,900 235,909,300
236,606,600
Rural household sector
75,896,300 91,098,600
94,538,000
TOTAL resource use
282,402,100 327,007,900
331,144,600
Fish use
4,482,000 6,664,500
8,396,600
Floodplain reeds use
(1,755,200)
(1,397,600)
(1,436,400)
Floodplain grass use
(5,640,200)
(4,496,100)
(3,882,200)
Floodplain gardens
(439,300)
(423,100)
(331,800)
Floodplain grazing
(773,200)
(665,200) 105,300
Tourism wages
80,022,200 91,416,200
91,686,400
Table 7. 2: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) of direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Namibian part of the Okavango river basin (US$, 2008)
53
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Namibia total direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 9: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resources use in the Namibian Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios
Namibia households direct economic
contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 10: Effect on direct economic contribution of all household use of
river/wetland natural resources in the Namibian Okavango river basin with
present day (PD), low development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev)
and high development (High Dev) water use
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Namibia tourism direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
50,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 11: Effect on direct economic contribution of river/wetland based tourism
in the Namibian Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development
(Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev)
water use scenarios
Namibia grass direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
52,000,000
51,000,000
50,000,000
49,000,000
48,000,000
47,000,000
46,000,000
45,000,000
44,000,000
43,000,000
42,000,000
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 12: Effect on direct economic contribution of household use of floodplain
grass in the Namibian Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios
55
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Table 7.3 shows the effects of the water use scenarios on the same river/wetland resource
use values, this time for Botswana. Here the impact on income of the medium and high
water use scenarios is devastating. It is relatively moderate for the low use scenario. The
overwhelmingly dominant income earner in the Botswana basin is tourism. Income from
tourism is reduced by some 40% with low water use and by some 90% with both medium
and high use. Figures 7.13 to 7.15 show how this effect is similar for all income generated,
whether by households, or tourism sector activities, or both. In the case of Botswana the
present day income from the river/wetland system is much higher than that for Namibia and
very much higher than that for Angola, so that the losses there would be enormous by
comparison.
The results on the analysis for the specific household natural resource uses in Botswana are
interesting. Different impact patterns emerge relative to the scenarios for the different
resources. Thus household income from fish shows an accelerating decline (Figure 7.16),
that from floodplain grass would be highest with the medium water use scenario (Figure
7.17), that from reeds would be similar, that from floodplain crops would remain relatively
stable, and that from floodplain grazing would collapse except with the high water use
scenario, when it would rise (Figure 7.18). Once again, the impact of these patterns is quite
small since the income involved is relatively small.
Low
Med
High
Scenario: Present
day
Development
Development
Development
Net present value @ 4%
1,003,678,900
142,964,400 150,898,600
Tourism sector
1,697,546,600
Rural household sector
692,364,700
420,525,700
108,017,900 89,311,000
TOTAL resource use
2,389,911,300
1,424,204,700
250,982,300 240,209,600
Fish use
7,598,700
6,679,500
5,475,900 2,822,200
Floodplain reeds use
8,520,900
8,584,600
8,794,100 8,733,500
Floodplain grass use
14,058,000
14,153,100
14,448,700 14,149,500
Floodplain gardens
1,681,000
1,891,200
1,823,200 2,035,600
Floodplain grazing
2,696,700
285,900
143,800 3,096,100
Tourism wages
657,809,300
388,931,500
77,332,400 58,474,100
Losses from present day
Tourism sector
693,867,700
1,554,582,200 1,546,648,100
Rural household sector
271,838,900
584,346,700 603,053,700
TOTAL resource use
965,706,600
2,138,929,000 2,149,701,700
Fish use
919,200
2,122,800 4,776,500
Floodplain reeds use
(63,700)
(273,100)
(212,600)
Floodplain grass use
(95,000)
(390,600)
(91,500)
Floodplain gardens
(210,100)
(142,200)
(354,600)
Floodplain grazing
2,410,800
2,552,900
(399,400)
Tourism wages
268,877,800
580,476,900 599,335,200
Table 7. 3: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) of direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Botswana part of the Okavango river basin (US$, 2008)
56
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Botswana total direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
3,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 13: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resource use in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios
Botswana households direct economic
contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
800,000,000
700,000,000
600,000,000
500,000,000
400,000,000
300,000,000
200,000,000
100,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 14: Effect on direct economic contribution of all household river/wetland
natural resources use in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day
(PD), low development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high
development (High Dev) water use sc
57
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Botswana tourism direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
1,800,000,000
1,600,000,000
1,400,000,000
1,200,000,000
1,000,000,000
800,000,000
600,000,000
400,000,000
200,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 15: Effect on direct economic contribution of use of river/wetland natural
resources for tourism in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day
(PD), low development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high
development (High Dev) water use s
Botswana fish direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
8,000,000
7,000,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 16: Effect on direct economic contribution of household use of fish in the
Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low development (Low
Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development (High Dev) water
use scenarios
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Botswana grass direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
14,500,000
14,400,000
14,300,000
14,200,000
14,100,000
14,000,000
13,900,000
13,800,000
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 17: Effect on direct economic contribution of household use of floodplain
grass in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios
Botswana grazing direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 18: Effect on direct economic contribution of household floodplain
grazing in the Botswana Okavango river basin with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Table 7.4 combines the data for all the three countries, summarizing the results for the basin
as a whole. Here the overwhelming dominance of the scenario effects on the income earned
in Botswana comes through. Thus, as shown in Figure 7.19, the impact of the low water use
scenario on all river/wetland natural resource uses in the Okavango basin is moderate, and
those for the medium and high water use scenarios are devastating.
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Low
Med
High
Scenario: Present
day
Development
Development
Development
Net present value @ 4%
Tourism sector
1,989,596,200
1,089,222,700 199,104,700
206,341,600
Rural household sector
1,057,568,000
646,941,500 316,064,000
295,715,900
TOTAL resource use
3,047,164,200
1,736,164,100 515,168,700
502,057,500
Fish use
125,905,100
75,448,600 69,065,500
64,537,400
Floodplain reeds use
39,722,500
36,385,300 36,221,900
36,248,100
Floodplain grass use
99,901,600
92,956,800 91,953,300
92,932,800
Floodplain gardens
6,712,800
7,362,300 7,278,200
7,399,200
Floodplain grazing
10,752,600
9,115,000 8,864,900
11,046,700
Tourism wages
774,573,400
425,673,400
102,680,300
83,551,800
Losses from present day
Tourism sector
900,373,500
1,740,491,500 1,783,254,600
Rural household sector
410,626,600 741,504,000
761,852,100
TOTAL resource use
1,311,000,100 2,531,995,500 2,545,106,700
Fish use
50,456,500
56,839,600
61,367,700
Floodplain reeds use
3,337,100
3,500,600
3,474,400
Floodplain grass use
6,944,800 7,948,300
6,968,800
Floodplain gardens
(649,400)
(565,300)
(686,400)
Floodplain grazing
1,637,600
1,887,700
(294,100)
Tourism wages
348,900,000
671,893,100
691,021,600
Table 7. 4: Effect of low medium and high water use scenarios on the 40 year net
present values (NPVs) of direct economic income attributable to river/floodplain
natural resources use in the Okavango river basin as a whole (US$, 2008)
Basin total direct economic contribution
40 year NPV @ 4% (US$)
3,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
1,000,000,000
500,000,000
0
PD
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Figure 7. 19: Effect on direct economic contribution of all river/wetland natural
resource use in the Okavango river basin as a whole with present day (PD), low
development (Low Dev), medium development (Med Dev) and high development
(High Dev) water use scenarios
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
The evidence above suggests that water use developments along the lines of the low,
medium, and high use scenarios, will significantly reduce the income that people in the basin
and its associated economies can derive from natural river/wetland resources. For the
medium and high water use scenarios, the aggregate losses in Angola may be lowest, at
some US$65 million. In Namibia these aggregate losses may be some five times greater at
some US$330 million. In Botswana the medium and high water scenarios may cause
aggregate losses some 30 times greater than those in Angola, at some US$2.1 billion.
Given the aggregate losses above, and the proportions of total household income derived
from river/wetland resources in each country, (19%, 32% and 45% for Angola, Namibia and
Botswana, respectively), it is possible to calculate the amount of its annual income an
average rural household in each country might lose. Table 7.5 shows this.
Low
Med
High
Scenario: Present
day
Development Development Development
Angolan basin
0% 8% 9% 9%
Namibian basin
0% 11% 13% 13%
Botswana basin
0% 18% 38% 39%
Whole basin
0% 11% 20% 20%
Table 7. 5: Proportion of income lost by the average rural household in Angolan,
Namibian, and Botswana parts of the Okavango river basin and the whole basin,
with low, medium, and high water use scenarios
With the medium and high water use scenarios the average rural household in the Angolan
part of the basin would lose some 9% of its livelihood. Rural households in the Namibian part
of the basin might lose something like 13% of their livelihood on average, and those in the
Botswana part of the basin might lose 39% of theirs.
The aggregate losses in income sustained by Botswana and, to a lesser extent, Namibia will
thus impact on basin populations which are already poor, relative to the broader populations
of their countries. These populations are already targets for development, and the losses
could thus be of enhanced concern. In addition to this, it can be seen in Table 7.4 that, the
aggregate losses are likely to be greater for the tourism industry than for the rural household
sector. Thus the impact on the main income earners in this industry, investors, owners of
capital, government, and employees, including wage earners from the rural populations
themselves, might be even greater than for the rural population as a whole.
The emerging picture is that the people in the Angolan basin currently derive relatively little
income from the river/wetland system, while those in the countries downstream, and most
notably Botswana, derive considerably more from it. By far the majority of this income is
based on the natural status of the system, with tourism, based on the natural wetland system
and its wildlife, making up the bulk of this. Botswana has invested in this natural system
through land allocation and protection, and relies on it for the bulk of its basin economy.
Angola supplies the water for the river basin system and needs to develop the system for its
own benefit. Namibia also wishes to increase the income it derives from the system. The
water use scenarios would develop the river in Angola and Namibia in ways that should
enhance their own income from the river, but the way this is done needs very careful
analysis and planning.
62
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Very important will be to ensure that developments are economically efficient, while
minimising the damage to existing income generation. Also important will be ensuring that
water developments do not increase poverty. While these developments are aimed at
increasing the amount of income coming from the river system, particularly in the upper
basin, they may not necessarily reduce poverty. The poverty within the basin, which tends to
be worse than that in the broader basin country societies, may be exacerbated if water
developments and their backward and forward economic linkages serve only the formal
sectors outside the basin. In this case benefits will be skewed towards higher income
segments of society. In the basin the poorest elements of resident societies have tended to
rely on direct use of natural resources, including the river/wetland based ones for a
significant part of their livelihoods. Further, these river/wetland-based natural resources have
tended to provide them with a safety net in times of adversity. Without careful planning of
development, losses in livelihoods for poor basin residents could significantly increase their
vulnerability.
63
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
8 Conclusion
The Okavango river basin is thus far relatively unaffected by development. The inhabitants
of the basin tend to be poorer than their representative populations, and mostly rural.
Progress in human development in the basin is being negated in Namibia and Botswana as
a result of the HIV/AIDS pandemic. Basin populations rely significantly on natural resources
for their livelihoods.
River/wetland-based natural resources contribute significant proportions of household
income (19% in Angola, 32% in Namibia and 45% in Botswana). In aggregate these
resources annually contribute US$60 million to livelihoods in the basin as a whole (US$4.4
million in Angola, US$12 million in Namibia, and US$44 million in Botswana). In terms of
direct contribution to all the national incomes, river/wetland-based natural resources in the
basin contribute US$100 million annually. In terms of total impact through both direct and
indirect contribution to the national income, as well as indirect use values and non-use value,
they contribute US$234 million annually. The river/wetland system contributes most of this
income through tourism in the lower parts of the basin mostly in Botswana, but household
make direct use of wetland resources such as fish, reeds and others.
Future water use developments in the upper parts of the basin, for commercial irrigation,
hydroelectric power, and urban use, will significantly reduce the income that people in the
basin and its associated economies can derive from natural river/wetland resources. Full
development of the river system for these water uses, could over the next 40 years cause
long term losses in the direct income earned from river/wetland natural resources amounting
to US$65 million in Angola, US$330 million in Namibia, and US$2.1 billion in Botswana. It is
estimated that full water use developments might reduce average household livelihoods by
9% in Angola, 13% in Namibia, and 32% in Botswana.
Planning for future development in the basin needs to take these findings into account,
aiming to minimise losses, maximise gains, preserve ecosystem integrity and ensure intra-
basin payments are made for ecosystem services rendered. Macro-economic cost-benefit
analysis should be applied to ensure that developments have comparative advantage,
alleviate poverty, and contribute optimally to national welfare.
64
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
9
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The Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Technical
Reports
In 1994, the three riparian countries of the
Analysis to establish a base of available scientific
Okavango River Basin Angola, Botswana and
evidence to guide future decision making. The
Namibia agreed to plan for collaborative
study, created from inputs from multi-disciplinary
management of the natural resources of the
teams in each country, with specialists in hydrology,
Okavango, forming the Permanent Okavango River
hydraulics, channel form, water quality, vegetation,
Basin Water Commission (OKACOM). In 2003, with
aquatic invertebrates, fish, birds, river-dependent
funding from the Global Environment Facility,
terrestrial wildlife, resource economics and socio-
OKACOM launched the Environmental Protection
cultural issues, was coordinated and managed by a
and Sustainable Management of the Okavango
group of specialists from the southern African
River Basin (EPSMO) Project to coordinate
region in 2008 and 2009.
development and to anticipate and address threats
to the river and the associated communities and
The following specialist technical reports were
environment. Implemented by the United Nations
produced as part of this process and form
Development Program and executed by the United
substantive background content for the Okavango
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the
River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis.
project produced the Transboundary Diagnostic
Final Study
Reports integrating findings from all country and background reports, and covering the entire
Reports
basin.
Aylward, B.
Economic Valuation of Basin Resources: Final Report to
EPSMO Project of the UN Food & Agriculture Organization as
an Input to the Okavango River Basin Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis
Barnes, J. et al.
Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis:
Socio-Economic Assessment Final Report
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Project
C.A.
Initiation Report (Report No: 01/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment EFA
C.A.
Process Report (Report No: 02/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Guidelines for Data Collection, Analysis and Scenario Creation
(Report No: 03/2009)
Bethune,
S.
Mazvimavi,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
D. and Quintino, M.
Delineation Report (Report No: 04/2009)
Beuster, H.
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Hydrology Report: Data And Models(Report No: 05/2009)
Beuster,
H. Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Scenario Report : Hydrology (Report No: 06/2009)
Jones, M.J.
The Groundwater Hydrology of The Okavango Basin (FAO
Internal Report, April 2010)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 1
of 4)(Report No. 07/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 2
of 4: Indicator results) (Report No. 07/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions: Climate
Change Scenarios (Volume 3 of 4) (Report No. 07/2009)
King, J., Brown, C.A.,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Joubert, A.R. and
Scenario Report: Biophysical Predictions (Volume 4 of 4:
Barnes, J.
Climate Change Indicator Results) (Report No: 07/2009)
King, J., Brown, C.A.
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Project
and Barnes, J.
Final Report (Report No: 08/2009)
Malzbender, D.
Environmental Protection And Sustainable Management Of The
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO): Governance Review
Vanderpost, C. and
Database and GIS design for an expanded Okavango Basin
Dhliwayo, M.
Information System (OBIS)
Veríssimo, Luis
GIS Database for the Environment Protection and Sustainable
Management of the Okavango River Basin Project
69
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Wolski,
P.
Assessment of hydrological effects of climate change in the
Okavango Basin
Country Reports
Angola
Andrade e Sousa,
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Biophysical Series
Helder André de
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Sedimentologia &
Geomorfologia
Gomes, Amândio
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Vegetação
Gomes,
Amândio
Análise Técnica, Biofísica e Socio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango: Relatório
Final:Vegetação da Parte Angolana da Bacia Hidrográfica Do
Rio Cubango
Livramento, Filomena
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina:Macroinvertebrados
Miguel, Gabriel Luís
Análise Técnica, Biofísica E Sócio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango:
Subsídio Para o Conhecimento Hidrogeológico
Relatório de Hidrogeologia
Morais, Miguel
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Análise Rio
Cubango (Okavango): Módulo da Avaliação do Caudal
Ambiental: Relatório do Especialista País: Angola Disciplina:
Ictiofauna
Morais,
Miguel
Análise Técnica, Biófisica e Sócio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango: Relatório
Final: Peixes e Pesca Fluvial da Bacia do Okavango em Angola
Pereira, Maria João
Qualidade da Água, no Lado Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica
do Rio Cubango
Santos,
Carmen
Ivelize
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Van-Dúnem S. N.
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório de
Especialidade: Angola: Vida Selvagem
Santos, Carmen Ivelize
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Van-Dúnem S.N.
Okavango:Módulo Avaliação do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório de
Especialidade: Angola: Aves
Botswana Bonyongo, M.C.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Wildlife
Hancock, P.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module : Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Birds
Mosepele,
K. Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Fish
Mosepele, B. and
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Dallas, Helen
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Aquatic Macro Invertebrates
Namibia
Collin Christian &
Okavango River Basin: Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
Associates CC
Project: Environmental Flow Assessment Module:
Geomorphology
Curtis, B.A.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report Country:
Namibia Discipline: Vegetation
Bethune, S.
Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO): Transboundary Diagnostic
Analysis: Basin Ecosystems Report
Nakanwe, S.N.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia: Discipline: Aquatic Macro Invertebrates
Paxton,
M. Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist
Report:Country:Namibia: Discipline: Birds (Avifauna)
Roberts, K.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia: Discipline: Wildlife
Waal,
B.V. Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia:Discipline: Fish Life
Country Reports
Angola
Gomes, Joaquim
Análise Técnica dos Aspectos Relacionados com o Potencial
Socioeconomic
Duarte
de Irrigação no Lado Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio
Series
Cubango: Relatório Final
70
TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
Mendelsohn,
.J.
Land use in Kavango: Past, Present and Future
Pereira, Maria João
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Qualidade da Água
Saraiva, Rute et al.
Diagnóstico Transfronteiriço Bacia do Okavango: Análise
Socioeconómica Angola
Botswana Chimbari, M. and
Okavango River Basin Trans-Boundary Diagnostic Assessment
Magole, Lapologang
(TDA): Botswana Component: Partial Report: Key Public Health
Issues in the Okavango Basin, Botswana
Magole,
Lapologang
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Land Use Planning
Magole, Lapologang
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) of the Botswana p
Portion of the Okavango River Basin: Stakeholder Involvement
in the ODMP and its Relevance to the TDA Process
Masamba,
W.R.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Output 4: Water Supply and
Sanitation
Masamba,W.R.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Irrigation Development
Mbaiwa.J.E. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Okavango River
Basin: the Status of Tourism Development in the Okavango
Delta: Botswana
Mbaiwa.J.E. &
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Tourism Activities
Mmopelwa, G.
and their Economic Benefits in the Okavango Delta
Mmopelwa,
G.
Okavango River Basin Trans-boundary Diagnostic Assessment:
Botswana Component: Output 5: Socio-Economic Profile
Ngwenya, B.N.
Final Report: A Socio-Economic Profile of River Resources and
HIV and AIDS in the Okavango Basin: Botswana
Vanderpost,
C.
Assessment of Existing Social Services and Projected Growth
in the Context of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the
Botswana Portion of the Okavango River Basin
Namibia
Barnes, J and
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Wamunyima, D
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report:
Country: Namibia: Discipline: Socio-economics
Collin Christian &
Technical Report on Hydro-electric Power Development in the
Associates CC
Namibian Section of the Okavango River Basin
Liebenberg, J.P.
Technical Report on Irrigation Development in the Namibia
Section of the Okavango River Basin
Ortmann, Cynthia L.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module : Specialist Report Country:
Namibia: discipline: Water Quality
Nashipili,
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis: Specialist
Ndinomwaameni
Report: Country: Namibia: Discipline: Water Supply and
Sanitation
Paxton,
C.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis: Specialist Report:
Discipline: Water Quality Requirements For Human Health in
the Okavango River Basin: Country: Namibia
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TDA Basin Socio-Economic Assessment
72
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