E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results


Okavango River Basin
Environmental Flow Assessment
Scenario Report:
Ecological and Social Predictions
(Volume 2 of 4: Indicator Results)
Report No: 07/2009
J.M. King, et al.
December 2009


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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
DOCUMENT DETAILS

PROJECT
Environment protection and sustainable management of
the Okavango River Basin: Preliminary Environmental
Flows Assessment
TITLE:
Scenario Report: Ecological and social predictions.
Indicator results
VOLUME:
Volume 2 of 4
DATE: December
2009
LEAD AUTHORS:
The Angola, Namibian and Botswana Discipline
Specialists (see The Team).
REPORT NO.:
07/2009
PROJECT NO:
UNTS/RAF/010/GEF
FORMAT:
MSWord and PDF.
CONTRIBUTING AUTHORS:
J.M. King, C.A.Brown, A.R. Joubert, J. Barnes.

THE TEAM

Project Managers
Colin Christian
Dominic Mazvimavi
Chaminda Rajapakse
Barbara Curtis
Joseph Mbaiwa
Nkobi Moleele
Celeste Espach
Gagoitseope Mmopelwa
Geofrey Khwarae
Aune-Lea Hatutale
Belda Mosepele

Mathews Katjimune
Keta Mosepele
Angola
assisted by Penehafo
Piotr Wolski
Manual Quintino (Team
Shidute

Leader and OBSC
Andre Mostert
EFA Process
member)
Shishani Nakanwe
Management
Carlos Andrade
Cynthia Ortmann
Jackie King
Helder André de Andrade
Mark Paxton
Cate Brown
e Sousa
Kevin Roberts
Hans Beuster
Amândio Gomes
Ben van de Waal
Jon Barnes
Filomena Livramento
Dorothy Wamunyima
Alison Joubert
Paulo Emilio Mendes
assisted by
Mark Rountree
Gabriel Luis Miguel
Ndinomwaameni Nashipili

Miguel Morais

Okavango Basin
Mario João Pereira
Botswana
Steering Committee
Rute Saraiva
Casper Bonyongo (Team
Tracy Molefi-Mbui
Carmen Santos
Leader)
Laura Namene

Pete Hancock

Namibia
Lapologang Magole
Shirley Bethune (Team
Wellington Masamba
Leader)
Hilary Masundire



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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
List of reports in report series

Report 01/2009:
Project Initiation Report
Report 02/2009:
Process Report
Report 03/2009:
Guidelines for data collection, analysis and scenario creation
Report 04/2009:
Delineation Report
Report 05/2009:
Hydrology Report: Data and models
Report 06/2009:
Scenario Report: Hydrology (2 volumes)
Report 07/2009:
Scenario Report: Ecological and social predictions (4 volumes)
Report 08/2009:
Final Report

Other deliverables:
DSS Software
Process Management Team PowerPoint Presentations











Citation

No part of this document may be reproduced in any manner
without full acknowledgement of its source



This document should be cited as:


EPSMO-BIOKAVANGO Eflows Team. 2009. Scenario Report. Report 07-2009 vol. 2 of 4.
EPSMO/BIOKAVANGO Okavango Basin Environmental Flows Assessment Project,
OKACOM, Maun, Botswana. 220 pp.


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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Acknowledgements
Many thanks for logistical support to:
· Corinne Spadaro of FAO)
· Ros Townsend, Karl Reinecke and Rembu Magoba of Southern Waters



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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Executive Summary
The Okavango River Basin Commission, OKACOM, initiated a project titled the
Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the Okavango River Basin
(EPSMO). This was approved by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), to be
executed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The standard
UNDP process is a Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis followed by a Strategic Action
Programme of joint management to address threats to the basin's linked land and water
systems. Because of the pristine nature of the Okavango River, this approach was modified
to include an Environmental Flow Assessment (EFA). To complete the EFA, EPSMO
collaborated with the BIOKAVANGO Project at the Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research
Centre of the University of Botswana, in 2008 to conduct a basin-wide EFA for the Okavango
River system.

This is report number 7 (Volume 2 in the report series for the EFA. It summarises the
predicted biophysical and socioeconomic impacts linked to climate change, with the details of
the DSS outputs provided in volume 4 of this report.



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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Table of Contents

1.
INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 13
1.1.
Project background ........................................................................................... 13
1.2.
Objectives of the EF assessment ..................................................................... 13
1.3.
The scenarios ................................................................................................... 14
1.4.
Presentation of the results ................................................................................ 14
1.4.1
Rivers and delta ................................................................................................ 14
1.4.2
Societal wellbeing ............................................................................................. 14
1.5.
Economic value ................................................................................................ 14
1.6.
The location of the ecological sites and links with IUAs ................................... 14
2.
Indicators .......................................................................................................... 16
2.1.1
The nature and purpose of indicators ............................................................... 16
2.1.2
Biophysical indicators ....................................................................................... 16
2.1.3
Social indicators ................................................................................................ 17
3.
GEOMORPHOLOGY ........................................................................................ 19
3.1.
Photographs ..................................................................................................... 20
3.1.1
Extent - Exposed Rocky Habitat ....................................................................... 20
3.1.2
Extent ­ Coarse Sediments .............................................................................. 20
3.1.3
Cross Sectional Area of Channel ...................................................................... 21
3.1.4
Extent of Backwaters ........................................................................................ 21
3.1.5
Extent of Vegetated Islands .............................................................................. 21
3.1.6
Sand Bars at low flow ....................................................................................... 22
3.1.7
Percentage Clays on Floodplain ....................................................................... 22
3.1.8
Extent of inundated floodplain .......................................................................... 23
3.1.9
Inundated Pools and Pans ................................................................................ 23
3.1.10 Extent of Cut Banks .......................................................................................... 24
3.1.11 Carbon sequestration ....................................................................................... 24
3.2.
Extent - Exposed Rocky Habitat ....................................................................... 25
3.3.
Extent of Coarse Sediments On The Bed ......................................................... 27
3.4.
Cross Sectional Area of Channel ...................................................................... 27
3.5.
Extent of Backwaters ........................................................................................ 29
3.6.
Sand Bars at low flow ....................................................................................... 31
3.7.
Extent of Vegetated Islands .............................................................................. 33
3.8.
Percentage Clays on Floodplain ....................................................................... 35
3.9.
Extent of inundated floodplain .......................................................................... 37
3.10.
Inundated Pools & Pans ................................................................................... 39
3.11.
Extent of Cut Banks .......................................................................................... 41
3.12.
Peat - carbon storage ....................................................................................... 43
4.
Water Quality .................................................................................................... 44
4.1.
Photographs ..................................................................................................... 44
4.2.
pH ..................................................................................................................... 45
4.3.
Conductivity ...................................................................................................... 47
4.4.
Temperature ..................................................................................................... 49
4.5.
Turbidity ............................................................................................................ 51



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4.6.
Dissolved oxygen .............................................................................................. 53
4.7.
Total nitrogen .................................................................................................... 55
4.8.
Total phosphorus .............................................................................................. 57
4.9.
Chlorophyl a ...................................................................................................... 59
5.
Vegetation ......................................................................................................... 61
5.1.
Photographs ..................................................................................................... 62
5.1.1
Channel Macrophytes ....................................................................................... 62
5.1.2
Lower Wet Bank (hippo grass, papyrus) ........................................................... 62
5.1.3
Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds) ................................................................................ 62
5.1.4
Upper Wet Bank 2 (trees, shrubs) .................................................................... 63
5.1.5
River Dry Bank .................................................................................................. 63
5.1.6
Floodplain Dry Bank ......................................................................................... 64
5.1.7
Floodplain residual pools .................................................................................. 64
5.1.8
Lower Floodplain .............................................................................................. 65
5.1.9
Middle floodplain (grasses) ............................................................................... 65
5.1.10 Upper Floodplain (trees) ................................................................................... 66
5.2.
Channel macrophytes ....................................................................................... 67
5.3.
Lower Wet Bank (hippo, papyrus) .................................................................... 69
5.4.
Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds) ................................................................................ 71
5.5.
Upper Wet Bank 2 (treeshrubs) ........................................................................ 73
5.6.
River Dry Bank .................................................................................................. 75
5.7.
FP resid pools, Open water (6) ......................................................................... 77
5.8.
Lower floodplain ................................................................................................ 79
5.9.
Middle floodplain (grasses) ............................................................................... 81
5.10.
Upper floodplain (trees) .................................................................................... 83
5.11.
Floodplain Dry Bank ......................................................................................... 85
5.12.
Open waters ..................................................................................................... 87
5.13.
Permanent swamps .......................................................................................... 88
5.14.
Lower floodplain ................................................................................................ 89
5.15.
Upper floodplain ................................................................................................ 90
5.16.
Occasionally flooded grassland ........................................................................ 91
5.17.
Sporobolus Islands ........................................................................................... 92
5.18.
Riparian woodland, trees .................................................................................. 93
5.19.
Savanna and scrub ........................................................................................... 94
5.20.
Wet bank ........................................................................................................... 95
6.
Macroinvertebrates ........................................................................................... 96
6.1.
Photographs ..................................................................................................... 96
6.2.
Channel-submerg veg ...................................................................................... 97
6.3.
Channel-marg veg ............................................................................................ 99
6.4.
Channel-fine sed ............................................................................................. 101
6.5.
Channel-cobbles, boulders ............................................................................. 103
6.6.
Channel rapid, fast flowing ............................................................................. 105
6.7.
Channel-pools ................................................................................................. 107
6.8.
FP-marg veg ................................................................................................... 109
6.9.
FP-pools, backw (seasonal fp 7) .................................................................... 111
7.
Fish ................................................................................................................. 113



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7.1.
Photographs ................................................................................................... 114
7.1.1
Fish resident in river ....................................................................................... 114
7.1.2
Migrate floodplain small fish ........................................................................... 114
7.1.3
Migrate floodplain large fish ............................................................................ 114
7.1.4
Fish­sandbank dweller ................................................................................... 114
7.1.5
Fish-rock dweller ............................................................................................. 115
7.1.6
Fish-marginal vegetation ................................................................................ 115
7.1.7
Fish in backwaters .......................................................................................... 115
7.2.
Fish resident in river ....................................................................................... 117
7.3.
Migrate fplain small fish .................................................................................. 119
7.4.
Migrate fplain large fish ................................................................................... 121
7.5.
Fish-Sandbank dweller ................................................................................... 123
7.6.
Fish-Rock dweller ........................................................................................... 125
7.7.
Fish-marginal vegetation ................................................................................ 127
7.8.
Fish in backwaters .......................................................................................... 129
8.
Wildlife ............................................................................................................ 131
8.1.
Photographs ................................................................................................... 131
8.1.1
Semi Aquatics (hippos, crocodiles) ................................................................. 131
8.1.2
Frogs, river snakes ......................................................................................... 132
8.1.3
Lower floodplain grazers ................................................................................. 132
8.1.4
Middle floodplain grazers ................................................................................ 133
8.1.5
Outer floodplain grazers ................................................................................. 133
8.2.
Semi Aquatics ................................................................................................. 135
8.3.
Frogs, river snakes ......................................................................................... 137
8.4.
Lower floodplain grazers ................................................................................. 139
8.5.
Middle floodplain grazers ................................................................................ 141
8.6.
Outer floodplain grazers ................................................................................. 143
9.
Birds ................................................................................................................ 145
9.1.
Photographs ................................................................................................... 145
9.1.1
Piscivores ­ open water .................................................................................. 145
9.1.2
Piscivores ­ shallow water .............................................................................. 146
9.1.3
Piscivores and invertebrate feeders ............................................................... 146
9.1.4
Specialists ­ floodplains ................................................................................. 147
9.1.5
Specialists ­ water lilies .................................................................................. 147
9.1.6
Specialists ­ fruit trees .................................................................................... 147
9.1.7
Breeders ­ reedbeds, floodplains ................................................................... 148
9.1.8
Breeders ­ overhanging trees ........................................................................ 148
9.1.9
Breeders ­ banks ............................................................................................ 149
9.1.10 Breeders ­ rocks, sandbars ............................................................................ 149
9.2.
Piscivores, open water .................................................................................... 151
9.3.
Piscivores, shallow water ................................................................................ 153
9.4.
Piscivores ....................................................................................................... 155
9.5.
Specialists, floodplains ................................................................................... 157
9.6.
Specialists, water lilies .................................................................................... 159
9.7.
Specialists, fruit trees ...................................................................................... 161
9.8.
Breeders, reedbeds and fldplns ...................................................................... 163



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9.9.
Breeders, overhanging trees .......................................................................... 165
9.10.
Breeders, banks .............................................................................................. 167
9.11.
Breeders, rocks, sandbars .............................................................................. 169
10.
Socio-economic indicators .............................................................................. 171
10.1.
Photographs ................................................................................................... 171
10.1.1 Household income - fish ................................................................................. 171
10.1.2 Household income - reeds .............................................................................. 171
10.1.3 Household income - floodplain grass .............................................................. 172
10.1.4 Household income - floodplain gardens (molapo farming) ............................. 172
10.1.5 Household income and wealth - livestock ....................................................... 173
10.1.6 Household income - tourism ........................................................................... 173
10.1.7 Wellbeing/welfare from intangibles ................................................................. 174
10.1.8 Indirect use ..................................................................................................... 175
10.1.9 Non-use .......................................................................................................... 175
10.2.
Household income - fish ................................................................................. 176
10.3.
Household income - reeds .............................................................................. 181
10.4.
Household income - floodplain grass .............................................................. 186
10.5.
Household income - floodplain gardens (e.g. molapo farming) ...................... 191
10.6.
Household income and wealth - livestock (floodplain grazing) ....................... 195
10.7.
Household income and macro effects - tourism ............................................. 200
10.8.
Potable water/water quality ............................................................................. 205
10.9.
Wellbeing/welfare from intangibles ................................................................. 208
10.10.
Indirect use ..................................................................................................... 209
10.11.
Non use .......................................................................................................... 210



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List of Figures

Figure 1.1 Map showing site locations and linked IUAs ........................................................ 15

Plus: Time-series graphs for each indicator.



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List of Tables

Table 1.1 The Environmental Flow (EF) sites and their corresponding socio-economic
Integrated Unit of Analysis (IUA) ......................................................................... 15
Table 2.1 Biophysical indicators used in the EPSMO/BIOKAVANGO EF process.............. 16




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Acronyms and abbreviations
DWAF
Department of Water Affairs and Forestry
EFA
Environmental Flow Assessment
EPSMO
Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the Okavango
River Basin
Ha hectare
HOORC
Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre
IUA
Integrated Units of Analysis
PD Present
Day
SAP
Strategic Action Programme
TDA
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis





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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Project
background
The origin of the project is described in Report 01/2009: Project Initiation Report. Essentially,
an OKACOM initiative titled the Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of
the Okavango River Basin (EPSMO) project was approved by the United Nations
Development Program (UNDP), to be executed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO). In 2008 it collaborated with the Biokavango Project at the Harry
Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre (HOORC) of the University of Botswana, to
conduct a basin-wide Environmental Flows Assessment (EFA) for the Okavango River
system. This would be a major part of a standard UNDP process: a Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) followed by a Strategic Action Programme (SAP) of joint
management to address threats to the basin's linked land and water systems. In the case of
the Okavango Basin, the standard approach, designed for rehabilitating degraded rivers,
would be modified because of the near-pristine nature of the river ecosystem.

The EFA began with a Planning Meeting in July 2008 and was finalised in June 2009. It
used mainly existing knowledge and understanding of the river ecosystem and its users. It
was generally acknowledged that this was a first, low-confidence, trial run of an EFA for this
system, which should be followed by a more comprehensive and long-term exercise where
important missing data and knowledge could be addressed to provide higher-confidence
predictions.
1.2.
Objectives of the EF assessment
There were two main objectives.
· Complete a basin-wide EFA of the Okavango River system as a major part of the
wider Technical Diagnostic Analysis. This would be done through several subsidiary
objectives:
o Collate all existing hydrological data on the river system and set up a basin
hydrological model that could simulate flows under various possible future
Scenarios
o Reach agreement with the three riparian governments on the scenarios to be
explored
o Bring together specialists in a range of relevant disciplines from across the
basin to share knowledge and data, and reach consensus on the:
relationships between flow and a series of biophysical indicators of the
river system
relationships of the condition of the ecosystem and social indicators
o Develop a DSS that would capture these relationships and produce
predictions of ecological and social change for each scenario that would
complement the macroeconomic predictions emanating from a separate
exercise
o Incorporate the EFA findings in the TDA document.
· Promote basin-wide communication and collaboration, and build capacity in
collaborative basin-wide Integrated Water Resource Management in all disciplines in
all three countries. This was done by appointing a full biophysical and socio-
economic team from each of the three countries, with planning, coordination and
training done by a Process Management Team.


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1.3. The
scenarios
Through a process of government consultation, three scenarios of increasing water-use were
chosen for the EFA, viz. low, medium and high water use. The details are provided in Report
06/2009: Scenario Report: Hydrology, and in Volume 1 of this report.
1.4.
Presentation of the results
1.4.1
Rivers and delta
For each scenario, the predicted changes in the river and delta are evaluated in three ways:
1. time-series of abundance, area or concentration of key indicators (see list in Chapter )
under the flow regime resulting from each scenario (This report);
2. estimated mean percentage changes from present day in the abundance, area or
concentration of key indicators (This report);
3. estimated change in discipline-specific integrity, relative to present day (Volume 1)
4. estimated change in overall ecological integrity, relative to present day (Volume 1).
1.4.2 Societal
wellbeing
For each scenario the predicted changes to socio-economic wellbeing are measured in the
following ways:
1. time-series of production measure (catch, harvest or output) of key socio-economic
indicators (see list in Chapter 2) under the flow regime resulting from each scenario
(This report);
2. estimated mean percentage changes from present day in production measure (catch,
harvest or output) of key indicators (This report);
3. estimated change in terms of livelihoods (net income or wellbeing) measured in
national currency, for key indicators (this report);
4. estimated change in terms of contribution to national income of basin countries
(change in gross national income), measured in national currency, for key indicators
(this report).
1.5. Economic
value
In a separate exercise, the same three Scenarios were assessed in macroeconomic terms,
so that a balanced assessment of the costs and benefits of development could be produced.
This involved valuation of the water use developments in the scenarios and comparison of
these with the national income measures for flow change indicators measured in the socio-
economic component. These are reported in the TDA macro-economic key background
report.
1.6.
The location of the ecological sites and links with IUAs
The number, and to some extent the position, of the eight biophysical sites was dictated by
financial, time and safety constraints, and they did not represent the entire basin. The
locations of the eight sites, chosen in an exercise described in Report 04/2009: Delineation
Report, are given in Table 1.1 and Figure 1.1.

Each biophysical site corresponded to a wider, socio-economic Integrated Unit of Analysis
(IUA; Figure 1.1), where it was used to represent the predicted river changes that would
affect people.




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Figure 1.1
Map showing site locations

Table 1.1
The Environmental Flow (EF) sites and their corresponding socio-economic
Integrated Unit of Analysis (IUA)
EF
EF Site name
Coordinates Socio-economic
IUA
Site
1
Cuebe @ Capico
15° 33' 05" S
3
17° 34' 00" E
2
Cubango @ Mucundi
16° 13' 05" S
2
17° 41' 00" E
3
Cuito @ Cuito Cuanavale
15° 10' 11" S
6
19° 10' 06" E
4 Okavango
@
Kapako
17° 49' 07" S
8
19° 11' 44" E
5
Okavango @ Popa Falls
18° 07' 02" S
9
21° 35' 03" E
6 Okavango
@
Panhandle
18° 21' 16" S
10
21° 50' 13" E
7
Okavango Delta @ Xaxanaka
19° 11' 09" S
11
23° 24' 48" E
8 Boteti
20° 12' 51" S
12
24° 07' 37" E




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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
2. Indicators
2.1.1
The nature and purpose of indicators
In this EFA two kinds of indicators are used: biophysical and socioeconomic. They represent
attributes of the ecological and social system that are thought to be either directly or indirectly
linked to the river and its flow regime. Their predicted changes as flows change provide a
composite picture of the ecological and social impacts of the chosen water-resource
developments.

2.1.2 Biophysical
indicators
Biophysical indicators are attributes of the river ecosystem that can be described in terms of
abundance (e.g. number of elephants), area (e.g. area of exposed sand banks), concentration
(e.g. nitrates, conductivity) or cover (e.g. vegetation communities.

Those chosen by the biophysical team for use in this project are listed in Table 2.1.

Table 2.1
Biophysical indicators used in the EPSMO/BIOKAVANGO EF process
Discipline Sites
Indicators
used
Extent - exposed Rocky Habitat
Extent - Coarse Sediments
Cross Sectional Area of Channel
Extent of Backwaters
Extent of Vegetated Islands
1-6
Geomorphology
Sand Bars at low flow
Percentage Clays on Floodplain
Extent of inundated floodplain
Inundated Pools and Pans
Extent of Cut Banks
7 Carbon
sequestration
pH
Conductivity
Temperature
Turbidity
Water Quality
1-8
Dissolved oxygen
Total nitrogen
Total phosphorus
Chlorophyll a
Channel macrophytes
Lower Wet Bank (hippo grass, papyrus)
Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds)
Upper Wet Bank 2 (trees, shrubs)
River Dry Bank
1-6
Floodplain Dry Bank
Floodplain residual pools
Lower floodplain
Vegetation
Middle floodplain (grasses)
Upper floodplain (trees,)
Open waters
Permanent swamps
Lower floodplain
7
Upper floodplain
Occasionally flooded grassland
Sporobolus islands
Riparian woodland, trees


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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Discipline Sites
Indicators
used
Savanna and scrub
Open water
8
Riparian woodland, trees
Channel-submerged vegetation
Channel-marginal vegetation
Channel-fine sediments
Channel-cobbles, boulders
1-8
Macroinvertebrates
Channel rapid, fast flowing
Channel-pools
Floodplain-marginal vegetation
Floodplain-pools, backwaters
Plus for 7
Mopane woodland-pools
Fish resident in river
Migrate floodplain small fish
Migrate floodplain large fish
Fish 1-8
Fish-sandbank dweller
Fish-rock dweller
Fish-marginal vegetation
Fish in backwaters
Semi Aquatics (hippos, crocodiles)
Frogs, river snakes
Wildlife 1-8
Lower floodplain grazers
Middle floodplain grazers
Outer floodplain grazers
Piscivores - open water
Piscivores - shallow water
Piscivores and invertebrate feeders
Specialists - floodplains
Specialists - water lilies
Birds 1-8
Specialists - fruit trees
Breeders - reedbeds, floodplains
Breeders - overhanging trees
Breeders - banks
Breeders - rocks, sandbars





2.1.3 Social
indicators

Social indicators are measures of human wellbeing in the river ecosystem that can be affected by
changes in flow. They are categorised as those that affect household livelihoods or wellbeing in
the basin, and those that affect the broader economies of the basin countries and outside that.

Those chosen by the socio-economic team for use in this project are listed in Figure 2.1



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Indicator
1. Household income - fish
2. Household income - reeds
3. Household income - floodplain grass
Total income
a. Household income
change as %
4. Household income - floodplain gardens (e.g. molapo)
%PD
g
PD
n
A. SOCIAL WELL-
5. Household income and wealth - livestock
BEING FOR
l
-
bei
el
LOCAL
6. Household income - tourism
HOUSEHOLDS
i
c w
(=a+b+c)
b. Potable
7. Potable water/water quality
water/water quality
-
econom
%PD
o
ci
c. Wellbeing/welfare
l
so
8. Wellbeing/welfare from intangibles
from intangibles %Pd
al
ver
9.1 Macro effects from tourism income excluding hh
.

O
(including multipliers)
A+B)
=
(
9.2 Macro effects from hh income 1-6 (including
d. National income
B. ECONOMIC-
C
multipliers etc.)
(=9.1+9.2+9.3+9.4)
WELL BEING
%PD
(nationally)
9.3 Indirect use
9.4 non-use


Figure 2.1
List of socio-economic indicators used in the EFA and their links to the broader
economy




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3. GEOMORPHOLOGY
This section provides the time-series of area of geomorphology indicators under the flow regime
resulting from each scenario and an estimated mean percentage change from present day for
each indicator. The indicators presented here are:
· Extent - Exposed Rocky Habitat
· Extent - Coarse Sediments
· Cross Sectional Area of Channel
· Extent of Backwaters
· Extent of Vegetated Islands
· Sand Bars at low flow
· Percentage Clays on Floodplain
· Extent of inundated floodplain
· Inundated Pools and Pans
· Extent of Cut BanksCarbon sequestration.



19

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.1. Photographs
3.1.1
Extent - Exposed Rocky Habitat
Photo: C Christian
Photo: J King


3.1.2
Extent ­ Coarse Sediments

Photo: C Christian



20

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.1.3
Cross Sectional Area of Channel
Photo: C Christian


3.1.4
Extent of Backwaters

Photo: C Christian

3.1.5
Extent of Vegetated Islands
Photo: C Christian




21

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.1.6
Sand Bars at low flow
Photos: C Christian


3.1.7
Percentage Clays on Floodplain
Photo: C Christian




22

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.1.8
Extent of inundated floodplain
Photo: C Christian


3.1.9
Inundated Pools and Pans
Photo: C Christian
Photos: J King




23

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.1.10
Extent of Cut Banks
Photos: J King


3.1.11 Carbon
sequestration

Photo: B Curtis




24

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.2.
Extent - Exposed Rocky Habitat
(Extent of Exposed Rocky Habitat during the low flow season.)- Not considering the impacts of
sediment deposition covering bedrock exposures; only considering the exposed bedrock above
the water surface.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomo rph: Extent - exposed Rocky Habitat
Geomorph: Extent - expo sed Ro cky Habitat
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomorph: B lank 1
Geomorph: Blank 1
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomo rph: Extent - exposed Rocky Habitat
Geomorph: Blank 1
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




25

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
There is a direct relationship between flow level and rocks exposed above water level. As water
level rises, less rocky area is exposed.

Geomorphology: Extent - exposed Rocky Habitat
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
A lot of abstraction is planned in an early phase upstream from Capico. Therefore a greater area
of rocks is exposed during the low flow season.

Moderate Scenario
Noticeable increase in exposure of rock at Popa.

High Scenario
Permanent above-median exposure of rocks at Popa, still fluctuating seasonally.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



26

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.3. Extent
of
Coarse
Sediments On The Bed
Not used in predictions.

3.4.
Cross Sectional Area of Channel
(Cross Sectional Area of Bank Full Channel.)- This refers to the well-defined channel on aerial
photographs, which carries the bulk of the flood. It is the perennial channel in present day
conditions.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Cro ss Sectio nal A rea of Channel
Geo morph: Cross Sectional Area o f Channel
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomorph: Cro ss Sectio nal A rea of Channel
Geo morph: Cross Sectional Area o f Channel
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Cro ss Sectio nal A rea of Channel
Geo morph: Cross Sectional Area o f Channel
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




27

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Channel cross section responds mainly to flood conditions. Floods larger than the historical
maximum should rapidly enlarge the cross sectional area. However, the channel also responds to
low flow conditions or extended low flow conditions - which enables vegetation to encroach into
the channel, trapping sediment, and ultimately reducing the channel cross section. This process
is much slower than channel enlargement. However, intervening floods are expected to undo this
trend.

Geomorphology: Cross Sectional A rea of Channel
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Channels would tend to get smaller, slowly, but flood peaks still come through and reset the
channel size.

Moderate Scenario
A state between low and high flow scenarios.

High Scenario
Channels get smaller due to reduced flows, but now large floods are less frequent and smaller.
Therefore resetting does not occur and there will be a cumulative trend towards smaller channel
section.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



28

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.5. Extent
of
Backwaters
(Extent of (Slow/No Flow) Backwater Areas)- Backwaters are remnants of obsolete channels,
which are still connected to the main channel. During the low flow they will fill by water backing up
from the river, but during flooding they may also receive water that flows over the floodplain.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Extent of Backwaters
Geo morph: B lank 4
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomorph: Extent of Backwaters
Geo morph: Extent o f B ackwaters
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Blank 4
Geo morph: B lank 4
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




29

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Filling or emptying of backwaters is directly related to the water level in the river. Backwaters
gradually fill with sediment and therefore may be shallower than the main channel - in that case
they may empty before the river dries up. The backwaters tend to be steep sided, so the surface
area changes little as water depth changes.

Geomorpho logy: Extent o f Backwaters
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
The area of backwaters is not greatly affected by the low scenario.

Moderate Scenario
An intermediate between low and high scenarios.

High Scenario
A high degree of abstraction results in considerably reduced flows. Abstraction for irrigation is
also greatest during the low flow season (hot season in October-November) when the river is at
its lowest. Therefore backwaters are very likely to dry out.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



30

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.6.
Sand Bars at low flow
(Extent of Exposed Sand Bars at Low Flow) - Extensive exposed sand bars exist mainly below
the falls. Upriver the sand bars are mostly submerged just below the surface during the low flow
season.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Blank 5
Geo morph: B lank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomorph: Blank 5
Geo morph: B lank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Sand Bars at lo w flow
Geo morph: B lank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev






31

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
If one considers only the effect of water flow on sandbanks, then lower flow will expose a greater
extent of sandbanks. However, the real issue here is not water but the fact that dams and weirs
trap sediment. Downstream of a weir or dam the river is deprived of sediment, so it erodes its
bed, banks and floodplains until it is once again carrying its maximum load. Thus, for some
distance downstream of a weir or dam the sandbanks will be removed.

Geomorpho logy: Sand Bars at low flow
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
The DSS model is not able to take into account the effects of sediment being trapped in
impoundments. Therefore, the response curves do not relate to this issue.

Moderate Scenario
The DSS model is not able to take into account the effects of sediment being trapped in
impoundments. Therefore, the response curves do not relate to this issue.

High Scenario
The DSS model is not able to take into account the effects of sediment being trapped in
impoundments. Therefore, the response curves do not relate to this issue.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



32

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.7.
Extent of Vegetated Islands
(Extent of Vegetated Islands)- Vegetated islands in the Mukwe-Andara-Popa Falls section of the
river (and upstream) are normally comprised of sand on bedrock. Grass, reeds, bush and trees
stabilise the sand by reducing wash away during above-average high flows and also promoting
deposition of more sand during overtopping of the island.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Blank 6
Geo morph: B lank 6
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomorph: Blank 6
Geo morph: B lank 6
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Extent o f Vegetated Islands
Geo morph: B lank 6
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




33

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Reduced flows have little impact on vegetated islands as long as the plants there still get enough
water to survive and regenerate themselves. Excessively high floods, however, are likely to
cause erosion of the margins of islands. In many cases this erosion is limited to the margins
because of the bedrock base to the island.

Geomorphology: Extent of Vegetated Islands
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
If high flows are consistently lower, then the islands may actually expand as vegetation begins to
encroach into the channels. However, that process would be reversed during very large floods -
which still come through in the low scenario at many of the sites.

Moderate Scenario
An intermediate response between low and high scenarios.

High Scenario
In the high scenario even the big floods may be reduced, so that islands may grow. (Another
factor not modelled in the DSS is the fact that low dry season flows would allow people access to
the islands, which was not previously possible. They will remove trees and other vegetation,
making the islands more susceptible to erosion of the sandy covering.)

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



34

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.8.
Percentage Clays on Floodplain
(Percentage Silt & Clays in the top 300mm of the Floodplain) - Floodplains are made
predominantly of fine sand, but there is a small amount of silt and clay-sized particles, which are
also deposited by the river. The silt and clay is significant for agriculture because it helps to retain
moisture and nutrients.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Blank 7
Geo morph: B lank 7
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geo morph: Percentage Clays on Floodplain
Geomorph: P ercentage Clays on Floo dplain
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Blank 7
Geo morph: B lank 7
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




35

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Silt and clay tend to get lost due to downward mixing by soil organisms, trampling by livestock,
and removal by wind. However, these fine particles are replenished by flooding.

Geomorphology: P ercentage Clays on Floodplain
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Since the big floods still come through (although their duration is reduced) there will stil be some
deposition of silts and clays on floodplains.

Moderate Scenario
With reduced flooding, reduced duration of flooding, and longer dry season flows, floodplains will
lose more silt and clay and be replenished less than before. Soil moisture and nutrient retention
will diminish over time.

High Scenario
The medium scenario is further accentuated.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



36

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.9.
Extent of inundated floodplain
(Extent of the floodplain flooded each wet season) - Reduced volume of flow in the flood season
will result in less overbank flooding. This results in smaller areas of the floodplain being
inundated.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Blank 8
Geo morph: B lank 8
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomorph: Extent of inundated floodplain
Geomorph: Extent of inundated flo odplain
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Blank 8
Geomorph: Extent of inundated flo odplain
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




37

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Reduced volume of flow in the flood season will result in less overbank flooding. This results in
smaller areas of the floodplain being inundated.

Geomorpho logy: Extent o f inundated floodplain
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Large floods still come through but the extent of floodplain inundation is reduced. The duration of
inundation is also reduced.

Moderate Scenario
An intermediate response between low and high scenarios.

High Scenario
In some cases floodplain inundation may be drastically reduced or may not occur.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



38

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.10.
Inundated Pools & Pans
(Extent of Inundated Pools/Pans on Floodplain at the end of the Dry Season) - Pools that remain
on the floodplain at the end of the dry season are assumed to be supported by groundwater
movement from the river channel.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Blank 9
Geo morph: B lank 9
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomo rph: Inundated P ools & P ans
Geomorph: Inundated Po ols & P ans
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Blank 9
Geomorph: Inundated Po ols & P ans
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




39

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
As the river level drops, so the water table in the floodplain will also drop. If the bed of a pool no
longer intersects the water table, the pool will dry out. (Seepage into the pool from the non-
saturated zone may also contribute to pool water.) Although high flows play a role by
replenishing groundwater in floodplains, we assume that perennial pools at the end of the dry
season are maintained by groundwater.

Geomorpholo gy: Inundated Po ols & Pans
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Reduced low flow levels begin to affect pools - some of which may dry out.

Moderate Scenario
An intermediate response between low and high scenarios.

High Scenario
Probably most of the floodplain pools will dry out.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



40

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.11.
Extent of Cut Banks
(Extent of Cut Banks Along the Active Channel) - Cut banks are a function mainly of high flow
periods, but they are also affected when river flow drops rapidly - in that case bank collapse tends
to occur.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Geomorph: Extent of Cut Banks
Geomo rph: B lank 10
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Geomorph: Extent of Cut Banks
Geo morph: Extent o f Cut Banks
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Geomorph: Blank 10
Geo morph: Extent o f Cut Banks
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




41

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Higher flow velocities during flooding will erode the banks. When the water level drops rapidly,
then hydrostatic pressure of water in the sandy bank material tends to result in bank collapse.

Geo morphology: Extent of Cut Banks
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Flood peaks still come though so bank cutting will still occur.

Moderate Scenario
An intermediate between low and high scenarios.

High Scenario
Only the extreme flood events come through.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



42

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
3.12.
Peat - carbon storage

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Geomorph: Peat - carbo n storage
Geomorph: Blank 1
500
% P D
500
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario

Geomorphology: Peat - carbon storage
500
M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


43

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4. Water
Quality
This section provides the time-series for water quality indicators under the flow regime resulting
from each scenario and an estimated mean percentage change from present day for each
indicator. The indicators presented here are:
· pH
· Conductivity
· Temperature
· Turbidity
· Dissolved
oxygen
· Total
nitrogen
· Total
phosphorus
· Chlorophyll
a.

4.1. Photographs
Photos: J King





44

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.2. pH
(In channel) - Unitless.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: pH
Water Qual: pH
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: pH
Water Qual: pH
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: pH
Water Qual: pH
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: pH
Water Qual: pH
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




45

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Generally increasing with decreasing flow. In the simulated Present Day, values range between
34% and 268% of the PD median, increasing in drier years of lower flow.

Water Quality: pH
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
pH is not much affected by the low scenario, for all the sites in the main channel.

Moderate Scenario
A slight increase is observed from the present day scenario.

High Scenario
Not much change for the river sites but at Xaxanaka and Boteti there is a significant increase in
pH. This is because, during low flow, the evaporative concentration is more pronounced due to
the high concentration of carbonates and bicarbonates in the water.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



46

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.3. Conductivity
(In channel)- us/cm.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: Conductivity
Water Qual: Conductivity
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: Conductivity
Water Qual: Conductivity
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: Conductivity
Water Qual: Conductivity
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: Conductivity
Water Qual: Conductivity
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




47

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Values decrease with increasing flow.

Water Quality: Conductivity
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Not much change is expected at any of the sites for the low scenario.

Moderate Scenario
Not much change is expected at any of the sites for the medium scenario.

High Scenario
Most scenario predictions remain within the PD range, but it is worth noting that there is tendency
for the range to progressively shift upwards through the scenarios, with Site 4 (Kapako) showing
values higher than the PD range up to 307% under the High Scenario.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



48

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.4. Temperature
(In channel) - diel range.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: Temperature
Water Qual: Temperature
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: Temperature
Water Qual: Temperature
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: Temperature
Water Qual: Temperature
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: Temperature
Water Qual: Temperature
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




49

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Generally the Diel Temperature Range increases with decreasing flow.

Water Quality: Temperature
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
At site 1 there will be a significant increase in diel temperature ranges under the low scenario
(and thus also under median and high). The remaining sites are not affected.

Moderate Scenario
No significant changes are expected for the medium scenario for Sites 2-8.

High Scenario
The High Scenario pushes the diel range permanently into the higher end of the range ­ that is -
higher than the present median - at Sites 5, 6 and 7, and maintains a greater range for longer in
the Boteti.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



50

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.5. Turbidity
(In channel)- mg/l.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: Turbidity
Water Qual: Turbidity
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: Turbidity
Water Qual: Turbidity
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: Turbidity
Water Qual: Turbidity
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: Turbidity
Water Qual: Turbidity
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




51

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
In general turbidity increases with increasing flows. The exception to this is Site 7 where turbidity
decreases with increasing depth. In the case of the Boteti (Site 8), the inundated (and sometimes
flowing) channels tend to have higher turbidity than the isolated pools. However when the Boteti
dries up, there is 'no turbidity'.

Water Quality: Turbidity
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
No significant changes are expected for the low scenario at sites 2-6. At site 1, however, turbidity
is expected to drop by c. 40%.

Moderate Scenario
No significant changes are expected for the medium scenario for Sites 2-8.

High Scenario
Turbidity is expected to decrease by about 20% at sites 5, 6 and 7 under the high scenario. The
Boteti (Site 8) will be mostly dry.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



52

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.6. Dissolved
oxygen
(In channel)- NTU.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: Dissolved oxygen
Water Qual: Disso lved oxygen
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: Dissolved oxygen
Water Qual: Disso lved oxygen
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: Dissolved oxygen
Water Qual: Disso lved oxygen
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: Dissolved oxygen
Water Qual: Disso lved oxygen
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




53

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Decrease in flow results in increase in Dissolved Oxygen at sites 1 - 6. At sites 7 & 8, the
concentrations decrease with decrease in flow

Water Quality: Dissolved o xygen
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
For sites 2,4,6,7 and 8 there will be no major changes in the low scenario. At site 1, there will be a
considerable change for low scenario. A slight change is expected at site 5.

Moderate Scenario
For sites 2,4,6,7 and 8 there will be no major changes in the medium scenario. A slight change is
expected at site 5.

High Scenario
At sites 2 and 4 there will be a slight change. At sites 5 and 6, the decrease in concentration will
be more significant. Major reduction of oxygen concentration is expected for sites 7 and 8 in the
high scenario.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



54

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.7. Total
nitrogen
(In channel)- mg/l.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: Total nitrogen
Water Qual: Total nitro gen
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: Total nitrogen
Water Qual: Total nitro gen
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: Total nitrogen
Water Qual: Total nitro gen
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: Total nitrogen
Water Qual: Total nitro gen
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




55

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
The trend of increasing concentration for decreasing flow is general for all the sites. In the case
of the Boteti (Site 8), it is expected that remnant pools or wells in the dry sections of the river will
have high concentrations of nitrogen.

Water Quality: Total nitro gen
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Slight increase in concentration expected, except for Site 1 where a c. 20% increase is expected
under the Low Scenario.

Moderate Scenario
There will only be significant increases in concentration at sites 1 and 8

High Scenario
Considerable increase in concentrations are expected at all sites, but in particular at 5, 6, and 7.
In the Boteti, the river channel will be mostly dry but remnant pools and/or wells are expected to
have high concentrations of nnitorgen.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



56

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.8. Total
phosphorus
(In channel)- mg/l.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: Total phosphorus
Water Qual: Total P hosphorus
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: Total phosphorus
Water Qual: To tal pho sphorus
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: Total P ho sphorus
Water Qual: To tal pho sphorus
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: Total phosphorus
Water Qual: To tal pho sphorus
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




57

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
The trend of increasing concentration for decreasing flow is general for all the sites, but slightly
lower than for total nitrogen. In the case of the Boteti (Site 8), it is expected that remnant pools
or wells in the dry sections of the river will have high concentrations of phosphorus.

Water Quality: Total phosphorus
500
450
M edian % of P D
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Slight increase in concentration expected, except for Site 1 where a c. 20% increase is expected
under the Low Scenario.

Moderate Scenario
There will only be significant increases in concentration at Sites 1 and 8.

High Scenario
Considerable increase in concentrations are expected at all sites, but in particular at 5, 6, and 7.
In the Boteti, the river channel will be mostly dry but remnant pools and/or wells are expected to
have high concentrations of phosphorous.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



58

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
4.9. Chlorophyl
a
(In channel)- ug/l,

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Water Qual: Chlorophyl a
Water Qual: Chloro phyl a
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water Qual: Chlorophyl a
Water Qual: Chloro phyl a
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Water Qual: Chlorophyl a
Water Qual: Chloro phyl a
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Water Qual: Chlorophyl a
Water Qual: Chloro phyl a
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




59

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
The trend of increasing concentration for decreasing flow is general for all the sites. The change
in concentration is bigger than for total nitrates. In the case of the Boteti (Site 8), it is expected
that remnant pools or wells in the dry sections of the river will have high concentrations of
chlorophyll a.

Water Quality: Chlorophyl a
500
450 M edian % of PD
400
abundance
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Slight increase in concentration expected, except for Site 1 where a c. 20% increase is expected
under the Low Scenario.

Moderate Scenario
There will only be significant increases in concentration at Sites 1 and 8.

High Scenario
Considerable increase (c. 200-250%) in concentrations are expected at all sites, but in particular
at 5, 6, and 7. In the Boteti, the river channel will be mostly dry but remnant pools and/or wells
are expected to have high concentrations of Chlorophyll a.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




60

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5. Vegetation
This section provides the time-series for vegetation indicators under the flow regime resulting
from each scenario and an estimated mean percentage change from present day for each
indicator. The indicators presented here are:
· Channel
macrophytes
· Lower Wet Bank (hippo grass, papyrus)
· Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds)
· Upper Wet Bank 2 (trees, shrubs)
· River Dry Bank
· Floodplain
Dry
Bank
· Floodplain residual pools
· Lower
floodplain

· Middle floodplain (grasses)
· Upper floodplain (trees,)
· Open
waters
· Permanent
swamps

· Lower
floodplain
· Upper
floodplain
· Occasionally flooded grassland
· Sporobolus islands
· Riparian woodland, trees
· Savanna and scrub
· Open
water
· Riparian woodland, trees
· Channel-submerged
vegetation
· Channel-marginal
vegetation.





61

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.1. Photographs
5.1.1 Channel
Macrophytes

Photo: B Curtis

5.1.2
Lower Wet Bank (hippo grass, papyrus)

Photo: B Curtis

5.1.3
Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds)

Photo: B Curtis



62

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.1.4
Upper Wet Bank 2 (trees, shrubs)
Photos: B Curtis


5.1.5
River Dry Bank

Photos: B Curtis



63

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.1.6
Floodplain Dry Bank
Photos: B Curtis


5.1.7
Floodplain residual pools

Photo: B Curtis



64

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.1.8 Lower
Floodplain

Photos: B Curtis

5.1.9
Middle floodplain (grasses)
Photos: B Curtis




65

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.1.10
Upper Floodplain (trees)
Photo: B Curtis





66

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.2. Channel
macrophytes
(Edges of main channel or side channels. All or part of vegetation permanently submerged.
Rooted or floating. Moving water. ) - Potamogeton spp., Vallisneria, Lagarosiphon.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetatio n: Channel macrophytes
Vegetation: Channel macro phytes
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetatio n: Channel macrophytes
Vegetation: Channel macro phytes
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetatio n: Channel macrophytes
Vegetation: Channel macro phytes
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




67

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Cover increases or decreases depending on water volume in dry season and could decline to
zero if dry season channel dries. Sudden or very large floods could reduce cover. Changes in the
onset or duration of either season are unlikely to have any significant impact.

Vegetatio n: Channel macro phytes
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
At site 1 this falls to very low levels due to marked decrease in low season flows. At the other
sites there is only a slight decrease with slight decreases in low season flows.

Moderate Scenario
At site 1 this falls to very low levels due to marked decrease in low season flows. At other sites it
decreases in dry years and recovers in wet years. At Sites 2, 4 and 5 it decreases due to low
flows and stabilises at 20 - 40% of current levels.

High Scenario
At site 1 this falls to very low levels due to marked decrease in low season flows. Gradual decline
to 75% at Site 2. At site 5 there is a dramatic decrease to 20% due to very low dry season
discharge and longer dry season discharge, crashing within 8 years.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



68

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.3.
Lower Wet Bank (hippo, papyrus)
(Permanently wet inner margin in main channel. Floating plants with stems forming dense mat;
leaves and flowers above water. Rooted in sand/peat. Moving water.) - Vossia cuspidata,
Cyperus papyrus.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: blank2
Vegetatio n: B lank 2
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetation: B lank 2
Vegetatio n: Lower Wet Bank (hippo ,papyrus)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: Lower Wet B ank (hippo,papyrus)
Vegetatio n: Lower Wet Bank (hippo ,papyrus)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




69

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Vossia will mimic the flow of the river as long as there is water to cover its roots. The leaves will
float higher or lower as water level rises or falls. It can tolerate more desiccation than can
papyrus. Papyrus roots must also be

Vegetation: Lower Wet B ank (hippo,papyrus)
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
At Sites 4, 5 and 6, Vossia will not be affected by changes either in the wet or dry season, as long
as there is some flow. Papyrus roots must be permanently inundated, so lower flows have strong
negative impacts and dry years gradually reduce papyrus extent. Low scenarios will gradually
reduce this indicator.

Moderate Scenario
At Sites 4, 5 and 6, Vossia will not be affected by changes either in the wet or dry season, as long
as there is some flow. Papyrus roots must be permanently inundated, so lower flows have strong
negative impacts and dry years gradually reduce papyrus extent. Medium scenarios will gradually
reduce this indicator.

High Scenario
At sites 4, 5 and 6, Vossia will not be affected by changes either in the wet or dry season, as long
as there is some flow. Papyrus roots must be permanently inundated, so lower flows have strong
negative impacts and dry years gradually reduce papyrus extent. The high scenario causes these
plants to crash within 15 year at Sites 5 and 6.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



70

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.4.
Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds)
(Outer edges of the mainstream, beyond inner margin. Emergent vegetation with roots generally
wet, but can withstand being out of water. Moving water.) - Phragmites australis.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds)
Vegetatio n: Upper Wet B ank 1 (reeds)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetation: Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds)
Vegetatio n: Upper Wet B ank 1 (reeds)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: Upper Wet Bank 1 (reeds)
Vegetatio n: Upper Wet B ank 1 (reeds)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




71

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Water depth (>2 m) inhibits growth in channel. Declines in dry season flows will encourage
colonisation of channel bottom with some die-off of the upper margin of reed bed. Flood season
has little impact, but new growth could decrease in strong floods.

Vegetation: Upper Wet B ank 1 (reeds)
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
As reeds are tolerant of variation, there will be negligible impacts under the low scenario, unless
there are successive dry seasons.

Moderate Scenario
As reeds are tolerant of variation, there will be negligible impacts under the medium scenario,
unless there are successive dry seasons.

High Scenario
There will be a steady decline under high dev. with time due to very low dry season flows at Sites
5 and 6. Die-off on the outer edges will be greater than colonisation of river bed, as there is a
steep drop into the river bed at most sites.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



72

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.5.
Upper Wet Bank 2 (treeshrubs)
(Wetted edge of main channel (or river islands) at high flow. Higher than Lower Wet Bank. Trees
& shrubs typical of riparian zone. Can be submerged for short periods) - Searsia (Rhus),
Syzigium etc.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: Upper Wet B ank 2 (treeshrubs)
Vegetation: Upper Wet B ank 2 (treeshrubs)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetation: B lank 4
Vegetatio n: Upper Wet B ank 2 (tree,shrubs)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: Upper Wet B ank 2 (treeshrubs)
Vegetatio n: B lank 4
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




73

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Can withstand inundation, but too long (>3 months?) will kill trees. Smaller floods will allow
colonisation by terrestrial species on the outer edge. These wetbank trees will be squeezed into
a smaller zone, decreasing cover. Too long a dry season will reduce recruitment and adult vigour.

Vegetation: Upper Wet B ank 2 (treeshrubs)
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
There will be a very gradual decline over time at most sites, with partial recovery in good flood
years. At site 1 trees could be reduced to 60% over 10 years.

Moderate Scenario
There will be a gradual decline over time, with partial recovery in good flood years. The longer dry
seasons will impact recruitment. At site 1 trees could be reduced to 60% over 10 years, at site 2
it could reduce to 50%, at site 4, 5 and 6 there will be a continuous decline without recovery, even
in good years.

High Scenario
For sites 2, 4 there is more dry season discharge therefore this indicator will be less affected
than it is a medium dev. At sites 5 & 6, the extreme low dry season flows will cause a crash
within 25 years.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



74

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.6. River
Dry
Bank
(Riparian woodlands found on the high dry bank of river channels.) - Diospyros mespiliformis, with
Acacia nigrescens, Combretum imberbe, Ficus sycomorus.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: River Dry B ank
Vegetatio n: River dry bank
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetation: River Dry B ank
Vegetatio n: B lank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: River Dry B ank
Vegetation: River Dry bank
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




75

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Stabilises bank. Adults will decrease with very low dry season flow as water table may drop below
reach of roots. Seedlings will decline with shorter flood seasons because of lower soil moisture
levels. Decline in community could take up to 3 - 4 decades.

Vegetation: River Dry Bank
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
there will be a marked drop in dry season flow and hence a negative impact, with the dry bank
vegetation gradually declining over the years At Sites 2, 5 and 6 very little impact is expected,
with decreases in occasional stress years but a recover in wetter years.

Moderate Scenario
At Site 1, there will be a marked drop in dry season flow and hence a negative impact, with the
dry bank vegetation gradually declining over the years. At Sites 2, 5 and 6 there will be a slight
decline.

High Scenario
At Site 1, there will be a marked drop in dry season flow and hence a negative impact, with the
dry bank vegetation gradually declining over the years. At Site 2 there will be a slight decline. At
Site 5 and 6, there will be a clear, continuous decline due to very low dry season flows.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



76

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.7.
FP resid pools, Open water (6)
(Permanent floodplain pools. Connected to river during high flow but retain water at normal low
flow ) - Nymphaea, Nymphoides, Lagarosiphon, Trapa.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: blank6
Vegetatio n: B lank 6
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetation: FP resid pools, Open water (6)
Vegetation: Flo odplain residual pools
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: B lank 6
Vegetatio n: Floodplain Dry B ank
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev






77

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
These are permanent pools that are replenished in the flood and sustained by groundwater during
the dry season. Reduced flooding and lower lowflows will result in a decrease in these pools due
to evaporation and a lower water table.

Vegetatio n: FP resid po ols, Open water (6)
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Will decrease with low floods because the size and number of pools will decrease gradually.

Moderate Scenario
At Site 4 there is a dramatic decrease but the pools can recovery quickly in good years. At Site 6
it is less dramatic.

High Scenario
At all sites there is a marked decline in this indicator due to declines in low flows and floods. At
Site 6 it will crash within 30 years, but not entirely, due to rainwater input into the system.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



78

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.8.
Lower floodplain
(Lower floodplain with long inundation. The deeper sections of channels between scroll bars that
flood and dry out seasonally.) - Vossia cuspidata with Persicaria, Ludwigia, etc.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: blank7
Vegetatio n: B lank 7
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetation: B lank 7
Vegetation: Lo wer floodplain
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: B lank 7
Vegetation: FP resid po ols, Open water (6)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




79

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
This is seasonal and dependent on recharge by floods. Their extent mimics the flood levels from
year to year. In wet years they it increases in size, in dry years it decreases.

Vegetation: Lower floodplain
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Very responsive to levels of flooding. Gradual decline in veg with successive dry years. The
position of the habitat can shift within the floodplain.

Moderate Scenario
Similar trend, but more pronounced.

High Scenario
Steady decline over time, but will stabliise at around 20% due to input from rainfall.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



80

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.9. Middle
floodplain
(grasses)
(Middle floodplain, clay or sand, with short inundation. Large area with thatching and grazing
grasses. Includes portions of upper floodplain (but not islands)) - Setaria, Panicum, thatching
grasses.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: blank8
Vegetatio n: B lank 8
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetatio n: M iddle floo dplain (grasses)
Vegetation: M iddle floodplain (grasses)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: B lank 8
Vegetation: Lower flo odplains
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev






81

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
These are basically terrestrial grasses that can withstand a degree of inundation in the wet
season. With a longer wet season, there will be a decrease in area of these plants, and vice
versa. Flooding during growing season reduces productivity

Vegetation: M iddle floodplain (grasses)
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
All three scenarios benefit these grasses to varying extents. In wet years grass cover decreases,
and increases in dry years.

Moderate Scenario
All three scenarios benefit these grasses to varying extents. In wet years grass cover decreases,
and increases in dry years. Overall, there are more of these grasses due to drier conditions.

High Scenario
All three scenarios benefit these grasses to varying extents. In wet years grass cover decreases,
and increases up to 10% in successive dry years at site 6.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



82

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.10.
Upper floodplain (trees)
(The highest points on the floodplain. Only inundated during high flow. Grasses, shrubs, a few
trees. Equals wildlife secondary floodplain. Therefore is primarily floodplain islands.) - Searsia
(Rhus) with Acacia hebeclada, Acacia sieberiana, Diospyros lycioides, grasses

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetation: blank9
Vegetation: Upper floodplain (trees)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetatio n: Upper floodplain (trees,rhus)
Vegetation: Upper flo odplain (trees,rhus)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetation: B lank 9
Vegetatio n: M iddle flo odplains
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev






83

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Seldom inundated. Long inundation is detrimental to these plants. Dependent on some
inundation to recharge ground water, and for nutrients.

Vegetation: Upper floodplain (trees)
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Steady, but gradual decline with decrease in dry season flows and duration. Decline is more more
dramatic at site 2, because overall flows are less than downstream.

Moderate Scenario
Steady decline with decrease in dry season flows and duration. Decline is more more dramatic at
site 2, because overall flows are less than downstream.

High Scenario
More dramatic decline with decrease in dry season flows and duration. Decline is more more
dramatic at site 2, because overall flows are less than downstream. The cline is up to about 10%.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



84

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.11.
Floodplain Dry Bank
(Dry river bank on outer edge of floodplain. Seldom to never flooded. Riparian species that need
to be close to water.) - Diospyros mespiliformis, with Combretum imberbe, Albizia versicolor,
Acacia hebeclada & tortilis, etc.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Vegetatio n: blank10
Vegetation: B lank 10
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Vegetatio n: B lank 10
Vegetatio n: Floodplain Dry B ank
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Vegetatio n: B lank 10
Vegetation: B lank 10
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




85

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
This vegetation stabilises the bank. More dependent on floods than river dry bank as water has to
cross an extensive floodplain to recharge the ground water. Adults will decrease with low floods
and long dry seasons as water table may drop below reach of roots. Seedlings will decline with
shorter flood seasons because of lower soil moisture levels. Decline in community could take up
to two to three decades.

Vegetation: Floodplain Dry Bank
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
In years of low floods, there will be a slight negative effect, especially in dry years. Some recovery
in good years, but not to previous levels.

Moderate Scenario
There will be a steady decline with time.

High Scenario
There will be a more severe steady decline with time due to lower dry season flows.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



86

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.12. Open
waters

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Vegetatio n: Open waters
Vegetation: Open water
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario
Vegetation sensitive to changes in water depth, rate of flow, nutrients and sediments.

Vegetatio n: Open waters
500
M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Gradual terrestrialisation of vegetation and encroachment of upper floodplain vegetation with loss
of open water.

Moderate Scenario
Gradual terrestrialisation of vegetation and encroachment of upper floodplain vegetation with loss
of open water.

High Scenario
High degree of terrestrialisation; over 50% in dry years. Almost entire loss of open water.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




87

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.13. Permanent
swamps

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Vegetatio n: Permanent swamps
Vegetatio n: B lank 2
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Summary change per scenario
More sensitive to soil moisture content. As long as soil is saturated, depth is not important.

Vegetatio n: P ermanent swamps
500 M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Gradual terrestrialisation of vegetation and loss of swamp.

Moderate Scenario
Increasing terrestrialisation and loss of swamp.

High Scenario
High degree of terrestrialisation; over 80% loss of permanent swamp within 7 years.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


88

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.14. Lower
floodplain

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Vegetation: Lower flo odplain
Vegetatio n: B lank 3
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario
Sensitive to duration and frequency of flooding. Long duration of flood correlates with depth of
water.

Vegetation: Lower floodplain
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Slight decrease in this habitat.

Moderate Scenario
Slightly more decrease in this habitat.

High Scenario
Low flows can still maintain some areas of seasonal floodplains, but reduced.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



89

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.15. Upper
floodplain

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Vegetation: Upper floodplain
Vegetatio n: B lank 4
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario
Sensitive to duration and frequency of flooding. Long duration of flood correlates with depth of
water.

Vegetation: Upper flo odplain
500 M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Slight increase in upper floodplain.

Moderate Scenario
Greater increase in this habitat.

High Scenario
Further increase in this habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


90

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.16.
Occasionally flooded grassland

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Vegetation: Occasionally flooded grassland
Vegetatio n: B lank 5
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario
Can be turned into savanna in long, dry periods.

Vegetation: Occasionally flo oded grassland
500 M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Slight increase in this habitat

Moderate Scenario
Greater increase in this habitat.

High Scenario
100% increase in this habitat in most years

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


91

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.17. Sporobolus
Islands

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Vegetation: Sporobolus Islands
Vegetatio n: B lank 6
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario
They are confined to very elevated areas, and there is a maximum to which they can increase.

Vegetation: Sporo bolus Islands
500 M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Slight increase in this habitat

Moderate Scenario
Up to 40% increase in some years

High Scenario
Will increase to the maximum possible.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


92

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.18. Riparian
woodland,
trees

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa Site 8: Boteti River
Vegetation: Riparian woodland, trees
Vegetatio n: Riparian woo dland, trees
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario
Old trees that will not respond immediately to changes in flows, but will gradually decline in
successive dry years if groundwater table drops.

Vegetation: Riparian woo dland, trees
500
M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Very slight change in this habitat

Moderate Scenario
Not much change beyond that of low development

High Scenario
Steady decline in riparian veg due to lack of ground water recharge and soil moisture.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


93

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.19.
Savanna and scrub
(missing)- missing

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Vegetation: Savanna and scrub
Vegetatio n: B lank 8
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Summary change per scenario
Will increase in dry conditions and can encroach on other wetter habitats.

Vegetatio n: Savanna and scrub
500 M edian % of PD
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
no change

Moderate Scenario
very slight increase in dry years

High Scenario
marked increase due to dry conditions

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


94

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
5.20. Wet
bank

Site 7: Site 8: Boteti River
Vegetation: B lank 9
Vegetation: Wet bank
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev

Summary change per scenario


Vegetation: Wet bank
500
M edian % of P D
450
abundance
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario


Moderate Scenario


High Scenario


References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



95

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6. Macroinvertebrates
This section provides the time-series for aquatic macroinvertebrate indicators under the flow
regime resulting from each scenario and an estimated mean percentage change from present day
for each indicator. The indicators presented here are:
· Channel-submerged
vegetation
· Channel-marginal
vegetation
· Channel-fine
sediments
· Channel-cobbles,
boulders
· Channel rapid, fast flowing
· Channel-pools
· Floodplain-marginal
vegetation
· Floodplain-pools,
backwaters
· Mopane
woodland-pools.

6.1. Photographs






96

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.2. Channel-submerg
veg
(Channel dwellers in submerged vegetation.) - Crustacea (Freshwater shrimps)

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acro Inverts: Blank 1
M acroInverts: B lank 1
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acro Inverts: Blank 1
M acroInverts: Blank1
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acro Inverts: Blank 1
M acroInverts: Channel-submerg veg
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acro Inverts: Blank 1
M acroInverts: B lank 1
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




97

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Water must always be present. At minimum flow habitat will be greatly reduced leading to
population decline as predation increases.

Aquatic macroinvertebrates: Channel-submerg veg
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Not too different from present day.

Moderate Scenario
Not too different from present day.

High Scenario
Abundance of shrimps is expected to reduce by as much as 60% of present day as submerged
macrophytes in the Panhandle are confined to the middle of the channel. Predation on shrimps is
also expected to be high.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



98

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.3. Channel-marg
veg
(Channel dwellers in marginal vegetation.) - Caenidae, Tricorythidae.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acroInverts: Channel marg veg
M acro Inverts: Channel-marg veg
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acroInverts: Channel-marg veg
M acro Inverts: Channel-marg veg
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acroInverts: Channel marg veg
M acro Inverts: Channel-marg veg
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acroInverts: B lank 2
M acro Inverts: Channel marg veg
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




99

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Water must always be present. High, long-duration flooding may lead to destruction of habitat and
reduction in abundance. Long duration of minimum flows restricted to the river bed may also lead
to loss of habitat.

A quatic macroinvertebrates: Channel marg veg
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Populations at Site 1 will be seriously affected. At the other sites, the situation is not expected to
be too different from present day except at Mucundi and Boteti sites where abundance may
reduce slightly - rapidly at Mucundi and gradually at Boteti.

Moderate Scenario
Populations at Site 1 will be seriously affected. At the other sites, the situation is not expected to
be too different from present day except at Mucundi and Boteti sites. At Mucundi abundance is
expected to reduce by about 20% of present day in good rainfall periods and by about 50% in
drier periods. At Boteti these indicators are expected to double in abundance for a few years
followed by a drastic decline to about 10% of present day in 10 years.

High Scenario
Populations at Site 1 will be seriously affected. At Mucundi, Popa and Panhandle, these
macroinvertebrates are expected to reduce by as much as 40% in 20 years as the margins of the
river get dry.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



100

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.4. Channel-fine
sed
(Channel dwellers in fine sediment).- Unionidae, Sphaeridae.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acroInverts: Channel fine sed
M acroInverts: Blank 3
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acroInverts: B lank 3
M acroInverts: Channel-fine sed
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acroInverts: Channel fine sed
M acroInverts: Channel-fine sed
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acroInverts: B lank 3
M acroInverts: Blank 3
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




101

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Will normally survive as long as there is some water covering the sediment. Long dry spells will
reduce abundance or even eliminate these indicators.

Aquatic macroinvertebrates: Channel fine sed
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Very significant reductions in abundance at Capico as dry season minimum flow is reduced by
about 99.9% of present day. This is expected to dry the river bed so reducing the abundance of
these mussels. There are no changes expected at the other sites.

Moderate Scenario
Very significant reductions in abundance at Capico as dry season minimum flow is reduced by
about 99.9% of present day. This is expected to dry the river bed so reducing the abundance of
these mussels. There are no changes expected at the other sites.

High Scenario
Very significant reductions in abundance at Capico as dry season minimum flow is reduced by
about 99.9% of present day. This is expected to dry the river bed so reducing the abundance of
these mussels. Reductions of dry season minimum flow to 18% of present day at Popa and
Panhandle sites are expected to reduce these indicators by about 20% of present day abundance
in 20 years.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



102

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.5. Channel-cobbles,
boulders
(Channel dwellers in stones and rocks) - Hydropsychidae, Ecnomidae.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acroInverts: B lank 4
M acroInverts: Channel-cobbles, boulders
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acroInverts: B lank 4
M acroInverts: Blank 4
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acro Inverts: Channel-cobbles, boulders
M acroInverts: Blank 4
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acroInverts: B lank 4
M acroInverts: Channel-cobbles, boulders
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




103

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Water must always be present. These indicators will reduce and may disappear if exposed to long
duration of minimum flows leading to drying of rocks.

Aquatic macroinvertebrates: Channel-cobbles, boulders
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
No significant changes

Moderate Scenario
No significant changes

High Scenario
No significant change at Mucundi and Popa but 50% reduction at Boteti. As long as the channel
does not dry up, these animals will persist.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



104

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.6.
Channel rapid, fast flowing
(Channel dwellers in rapids or fast flowing waters) - Simuliidae, Hydropsychidae.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acroInverts: B lank 5
M acroInverts: Channel rapid, fast flowing
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acroInverts: B lank 5
M acroInverts: Blank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acro Inverts: Channel rapid, fast flowing
M acroInverts: Blank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acro Inverts: Channel rapid, fast flowing
M acroInverts: Blank 5
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




105

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Water must always be present. These indicators will reduce and may disappear if exposed to long
duration of minimum flows leading to drying of river bed.

A quatic macroinvertebrates: Channel rapid, fast flowing
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
No significant changes at Mucundi and Popa but slight reduction in abundance at Delta site 7
(Xakanaka) especially during drier years.

Moderate Scenario
No significant changes at Mucundi and Popa but slight reduction in abundance at Delta site 7
(Xakanaka) especially during drier years.

High Scenario
No significant changes at Mucundi. With dry season minmum flow reduced to 18% of present day
at Popa, these indicators are expected to decline to about 80% of present day abundance over 30
years and to continue to decline therafter. At Xakanaka, in the delta, these animlas aere expected
to decline to about 15% of present day abundance.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



106

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.7. Channel-pools
(Hollows formed in the bedrock) ­ Dytiscidae.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acroInverts: B lank 6
M acroInverts: Channel-poo ls
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acroInverts: B lank 6
M acroInverts: Blank 6
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acroInverts: B lank 6
M acroInverts: Blank 6
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acroInverts: B lank 6
M acroInverts: Blank 6
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




107

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Water must always be present. High, long-duration flooding will destroy this habitat while long
duration of minimum flows may lead to drying out of the pools also destroying the pools.

A quatic macroinvertebrates: Channel-po ols
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
No significant changes.

Moderate Scenario
No significant changes.

High Scenario
No significant changes.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



108

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.8. FP-marg
veg
(Floodplain dwellers in marginal vegetation) - Coenagrionidae, Physidae, Planorbidae.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acroInverts: B lank 7
M acroInverts: Blank 7
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acro Inverts: FP -marg veg
M acroInverts: FP -marg veg
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acroInverts: B lank 7
M acroInverts: Blank 7
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acroInverts: B lank 7
M acroInverts: Blank 7
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




109

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Drying out of floodplains consequent to prolonged low flows will reduce or eradicate this habitat.

A quatic macro invertebrates: FP -marg veg
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
No significant changes.

Moderate Scenario
No significant changes.

High Scenario
No significant changes.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



110

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
6.9.
FP-pools, backw (seasonal fp 7)
(Dwellers in seasonal floodplain backwaters) ­ Dytiscidae.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
M acroInverts: B lank 8
M acroInverts: Blank 8
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
M acroInverts: B lank 8
M acroInverts: FP -po ols, backw (seaso nal fp 7)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
M acroInverts: B lank 8
M acroInverts: FP -po ols, backw (seaso nal fp 7)
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
M acro Inverts: FP -pools, backw (seasonal fp 7)
M acroInverts: Blank 8
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




111

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Drying out of floodplains consequent to prolonged low flows will reduce or eradicate this habitat.

A quatic macroinvertebrates: FP -poo ls, backw (seaso nal fp 7)
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
No significant changes

Moderate Scenario
Not much change at Kapako. Some reduction in abundance is predicted at Panhandle and at
Xaxanaka especially during drier periods.

High Scenario
No significant changes at Kapako because the minimum dry season flows are expected to
maintained at this site. At the Panhandle and Xaxanaka sites, very low dry season minimum
flows may not refill these pools and backwaters leading to the drying up and drastic reductions of
these indicators.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



112

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7. Fish
This section provides the time-series for fish indicators under the flow regime resulting from each
scenario and an estimated mean percentage change from present day for each indicator. The
indicators presented here are:
· Fish resident in river
· Migrate floodplain small fish
· Migrate floodplain large fish
· Fish-sandbank
dweller
· Fish-rock
dweller
· Fish-marginal
vegetation
· Fish in backwaters.




113

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.1. Photographs
7.1.1
Fish resident in river

Photo: B de Waal

7.1.2
Migrate floodplain small fish

Photo: B de Waal

7.1.3
Migrate floodplain large fish
Photo: B de Waal


7.1.4 Fish­sandbank
dweller

Photo: B de Waal



114

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.1.5 Fish-rock
dweller
Photo: B de Waal


7.1.6 Fish-marginal
vegetation

Photo: B de Waal

7.1.7
Fish in backwaters

Photo: B de Waal



115

---

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.2.
Fish resident in river
(Fish living in main channels that undertake longitudinal migrations. Spend most time in main
channel in deep water but use floodplain.) Example: Tigerfish [Hydrocynus vittatus].

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Fish: Fish resident in river
Fish: Fish resident in river
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish: Fish resident in river
Fish: Fish resident in river
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Fish: Fish resident in river
Fish: Fish resident in river
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish: Fish resident in river
Fish: Fish resident in river
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




117

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Require clear deep, running water and pools throughout the hydrological cycle.

Fish: Fish resident in river
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Especially the tigerfish may be the most affected species in this group while the other species
may be moderately affected by changes and decrease in waterflow, flooding patterns or water
quality.

Moderate Scenario
Tigerfish and other fish of this group will be affected by changes and decrease in waterflow,
flooding patterns or water quality.

High Scenario
Low and unnatural flow patterns as well as increased turbidity and deteriorated water quality
affect fish community abundance and composition negatively.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



118

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.3.
Migrate fplain small fish
(Fish that are resident in river, migrate into floodplains for feeding, breeding and protection
against predation.) - Small species dependent on lateral migration to floodplains for breeding and
feeding. Example: Bulldog [Marcusenius macrolepidotus].

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Fish: M igrate fplain small fish
Fish: M igrate fplain small fish
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish: M igrate fplain small fish
Fish: M igrate fplain small fish
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Fish: M igrate fplain small fish
Fish: M igrate fplain small fish
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish: M igrate fplain small fish
Fish: B lank 2
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




119

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Depend on regular flooding of shallow vegetated floodplains and deeper [>50cm] refuges during
low flow conditions.

Fish: M igrate fplain smal fish
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Any disruption of the normal flooding pattern or sedimentation regime will have a detrimental
effect. However, minor changes that may cause variations that fall within the natural variability will
not have any major effect on these species.

Moderate Scenario
The expected disruption of the normal flooding pattern or sedimentation regime will have
detrimental effect on fish species in this group. If no flooding occurs in the seasonal floodplains,
then the migratory behavior of these species, which is a major part of their life history strategy,
may be compromised with consequent negative effects on their survival.

High Scenario
Disruption of natural flooding patterns impact negatively on availability of floodplain habitat and
migratory movements of this group. Effects will be on breeding success and survival. Increased
predation by pioneer predators with declining water quality is possible. Construction of dams will
affect sedimentation and replenishment of nutrients and organic material on the floodplains,
affecting the foodweb and fish communities.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



120

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.4.
Migrate fplain large fish
(Fish that are resident in river, migrate into floodplains for feeding, breeding and protection
against predation.)- Large species dependent on lateral migration to floodplains for breeding and
feeding. Example: Redbreast tilapia [Tilapia rendalli].

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Fish: M igrate fplain large fish
Fish: M igrate fplain large fish
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish: M igrate fplain large fish
Fish: M igrate fplain large fish
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Fish: M igrate fplains large fish
Fish: M igrate fplain large fish
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish: M igrate fplain large fish
Fish: B lank 3
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




121

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Depend on regular flooding of shallow vegetated floodplains and deeper [>200cm] refuges during
low flow conditions.

Fish: M igrate fplain large fish
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Any disruption of the normal flooding pattern or sedimentation regime will have a detrimental
effect. However, minor changes that may cause variations that fall within the natural variability will
not have any major effect on these species.

Moderate Scenario
Any disruption of the normal flooding pattern or sedimentation regime will have a detrimental
effect. However, species such as catfish may not be adversely affected by declining habitat
quality relative to other species in the group.

High Scenario
Disruption of natural flooding patterns impacts negatively on availability of floodplain habitat for
breeding and feeding and migratory movements of this group. The breeding success and survival
will be specifically affected. Increased predation by pioneer predators with declining water quality
can take place and the highly resilient catfish [Clarias spp] may become the dominant species in
the system. Construction of dams will affect sedimentation and replenishment of nutrients and
organic material on the floodplains, negatively affecting the foodweb and fish communities.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



122

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.5. Fish-Sandbank
dweller
(Species living on sandbanks and habitats with sandy bottoms.) - Fish species living mainly on
the actively moving sandbanks or a sandy bottom. Example: Sand catlet [Leptoglanis cf dorae].

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Fish: Fish-Sandbank dweller
Fish: Fish-Sandbank dweller
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish: Fish-Sandbank dweller
Fish: Fish-Sandbank dweller
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Fish: B lank 4
Fish: Fish-Sandbank dweller
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish: Fish-Sandbank dweller
Fish: B lank 4
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




123

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Depend on active sandbanks with flowing water and seasonal natural variation of water levels.

Fish: Fish-Sandbank dweller
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Any disruption of the normal flooding pattern or sedimentation regime will have a detrimental
effect on this group, especially if the sediment balance is disturbed by water storage
development.

Moderate Scenario
Any disruption of the normal flooding pattern or sedimentation regime will have a detrimental
effect on this group, especially if the sediment balance is disturbed by water storage
development.

High Scenario
Disruption of natural flow patterns that keep sandbanks active may result in the destruction of this
habitat which will be ultimately detrimental to the fish species survival associated with it.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



124

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.6. Fish-Rock
dweller
(Rheophillic species of riffles and rapids) - Fish species living amongst rocks and in crevices in
flowing water. Example: Southern stargazer [Amphilius uranoscopus].

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Fish: B lank 5
Fish: Fish-Rock dwel er
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish: blank5
Fish: Fish-Rock dwel er
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Fish: Fish- rock dwel ers
Fish: B lank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish: B lank 5
Fish: B lank 5
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




125

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Depend on presence of a rocky bottom and flowing water as well as natural variation in water
level.

Fish: Fish-Rock dwel er
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This indicator group is sensitive to any disruption of the hydrological regime or limited
deterioration of water quality expected in the low scenario.

Moderate Scenario
This indicator group is sensitive to any disruption of the hydrological regime or deterioration of
water quality expected in the medium scenario.

High Scenario
Decreased flow may expose the rock habitat, which would decrease both the availability of habitat
and the survival of fish species in this group. Unnatural flooding patterns would also have a
negative effect on availability of food items and fish breeding patterns in this habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



126

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.7. Fish-marginal
vegetation
(Species living amongst marginal vegetation on edge of channels.) - Fish species living mainly
amongst vegetation on margin of river and may move into floodplains during flood conditions.
Example: Banded tilapia [Tilapia sparrmanii].

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Fish: Fish-marginal vegetatio n
Fish: Fish-marginal vegetation
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish: Fish in marginal vegetatio n
Fish: Fish-marginal vegetation
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Fish: Fish-marginal vegetatio n
Fish: Fish-marginal vegetation
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish: Fish-marginal vegetatio n
Fish: Fish-marginal vegetation
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




127

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Depend on the presence of marginal vegetation, stable soils and naturally varying water levels for
establishment of emergent and submerged vegetation.

Fish: Fish-marginal vegetation
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Any changes to the flood regime or water quality can affect this group by changing the availability
of marginal vegetation.

Moderate Scenario
Any unnatural changes to the flood regime or water quality caused by the medium development in
the river basin can affect this group by changing the availability of marginal vegetation. It is
expected that medium developments will have a negative impact on fish survival in this group.

High Scenario
Decreased flow in the river channel and aseasonal flooding may affect both emergent and
submerged vegetation which would result in loss of habitat and food availability. Fish species in
this indicator group may then experience low survival rates (e.g. decreased breeding success,
increased predation, etc).

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



128

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
7.8.
Fish in backwaters
(Fish species living in vegetated pools and backwaters.) - Fish species living mainly amongst
vegetation on margin of river and associated backwaters during low water level conditions. May
move into floodplains during flood conditions. Example: Okavango tilapia [Tilapia ruweti].

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Fish: B lank 7
Fish: B lank 7
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish: Fish in backwaters
Fish: Fish in backwaters
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Fish: B lank 7
Fish: Fish in backwaters
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish: Fish in backwaters
Fish: B lank 7
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




129

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Depend on maintenance of oxbows and pools on the margin of the floodplain of the river by
normal natural hydrological regime, including standing water conditions during low flow.

Fish: Fish in backwaters
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Backwaters may change due to changes in flood cycles and sediment load and water quality.
This will impact on fish communities of backwaters.

Moderate Scenario
Backwaters may deteriorate due to changes in flood cycles and sediment load and water quality.
This will impact on fish communities of backwaters.

High Scenario
Oxbows and backwaters may be lost due to siltation as result of lack of scouring function of large
floods and increased or reduced sedimentation. Reduced water flow will result in habitat loss
affecting surival of backwater communities. Unnatural flooding regimes may further reduce fish
survival. Proposed dams will affect sedimentation and replenishment of nutrients on the flood
plains and backwaters, ultimately causing a decline in fish communities and replacement by
pioneer fish species.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



130

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8. Wildlife
This section provides the time-series for the wildlife indicators under the flow regime resulting
from each scenario and an estimated mean percentage change from present day for each
indicator. The indicators presented here are:
· Semi Aquatics (hippos, crocodiles)
· Frogs, river snakes
· Lower floodplain grazers
· Middle floodplain grazers
· Outer floodplain grazers.


8.1. Photographs
8.1.1
Semi Aquatics (hippos, crocodiles)
Photo: K Roberts
Photo: C Santos
Photo: M Paxton

Photo: K Roberts



131

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8.1.2
Frogs, river snakes
Photos: M Paxton
Photos: K Roberts


8.1.3
Lower floodplain grazers

Photos: K Roberts



132

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8.1.4
Middle floodplain grazers
Photos: K Roberts


8.1.5 Outer
floodplain
grazers
Photo: K Roberts

Photos: K Roberts




133

---

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8.2. Semi
Aquatics
(Main channel dwellers, but ranging over banks, floodplains and Islands) - Hippopotamus,
crocodile, otters, monitors and terrapins.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
Wildlife: Semi A quatics
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




135

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Particularly sensitive to dry season water depth for habitat and island integrity.

Wildlife: Semi A quatics
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Would affect local populations of some species in some areas.

Moderate Scenario
Would reduce populations of some species in unprotected areas.

High Scenario
Would reduce most populations of most species.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



136

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8.3.
Frogs, river snakes
(Pools, permanent swamp, lower floodplain areas.) - Snakes, ridged frogs, musk shrews.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Wildlife: Blank 2
Wildlife: Frogs, river snakes
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Wildlife: Frogs, river snakes
Wildlife: Frogs, river snakes
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Wildlife: Frogs, river snakes
Wildlife: Frogs, river snakes
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Wildlife: Frogs, river snakes
Wildlife: Frogs, river snakes
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




137

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Particularly sensitive to dry season water levels and duration to maintain backwaters and
marginal vegetation and reduced seasonal floods

Wildlife: Fro gs, river snakes
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Little change in populations foreseen.

Moderate Scenario
Some population reductions due to local changes in habitat.

High Scenario
Reduced habitat availability would cause reductions of populations in this indicator.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



138

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8.4. Lower
floodplain
grazers
(Permanent swamp, primary and secondary floodplain) - Lechwe, sitatunga, reedbuck,
waterbuck.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Wildlife: Blank 3
Wildlife: Lo wer floodplain grazers
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Wildlife: Lower floodplain grazers
Wildlife: Lo wer floodplain grazers
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Wildlife: Low Flo odplain Grazers
Wildlife: B lank 3
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Wildlife: Lower floodplain grazers
Wildlife: Lo wer floodplain grazers
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




139

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Need seasonal floods of 2-6 months duration.

Wildlife: Lower floo dplain grazers
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Provided there is some seasonal flooding little change in populations foreseen.

Moderate Scenario
Some population reductions due to local changes in lower floodplain area.

High Scenario
Would reduce populations of all species.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



140

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8.5. Middle
floodplain
grazers
(Secondary and tertiary floodplain) - Wildebeest, zebra, impala, duiker, aarvark, mice.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Wildlife: Blank 4
Wildlife: M iddle floodplain grazers
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Wildlife: M iddle floodplain grazers
Wildlife: B lank 4
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Wildlife: M iddle Floodplain Grazers
Wildlife: B lank 4
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Wildlife: M iddle floodplain grazers
Wildlife: B lank 4
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




141

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Need periodic flooding.

Wildlife: M iddle floodplain grazers
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Little change in populations foreseen.

Moderate Scenario
Little change in populations foreseen in project areas.

High Scenario
Some population reductions due to local changes in habitat and use by other species.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



142

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
8.6.
Outer floodplain grazers
(Primary and secondary floodplain grazers) - Elephant, buffalo, tsesebe, warthog.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Wildlife: Outer floodplain grazers
Wildlife: Outer flo odplain grazers
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Wildlife: Outer floodplain grazers
Wildlife: B lank 5
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Wildlife: Outer Floodplain Grazers
Wildlife: Lo wer floodplain grazers
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Wildlife: Outer floodplain grazers
Wildlife: B lank 5
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




143

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Need seasonal floods of 2-6 months duration.

Wildlife: Outer floodplain grazers
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Provided there is some seasonal flooding little change in populations foreseen.

Moderate Scenario
Some population reductions due to local changes in lower floodplain area.

High Scenario
Would result in a sharp decline in populations associated with rivers but would increase the
populations of these species in the Delta.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



144

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9. Birds
This section provides the time-series for bird indicators under the flow regime resulting from each
scenario and an estimated mean percentage change from present day for each indicator. The
indicators presented here are:
· Piscivores - open water
· Piscivores - shallow water
· Piscivores and invertebrate feeders
· Specialists - floodplains
· Specialists - water lilies
· Specialists - fruit trees
· Breeders - reedbeds, floodplains
· Breeders - overhanging trees
· Breeders - banks
· Breeders - rocks, sandbars.



9.1. Photographs
9.1.1
Piscivores ­ open water
Photo: T Moutloatse
Photo: P Hancock
Photo: M Paxton




145

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.1.2
Piscivores ­ shallow water
Photos: P Hancock

Photo: M Paxton

9.1.3
Piscivores and invertebrate feeders
Photo: P Hancock
Photo: M Paxton
Photo: P Scheepers
Photo: P Scheepers

Photo: J Bestelink



146

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.1.4
Specialists ­ floodplains
Photo: P Hancock
Photos: J Bestelink

Photo: J Macdonald

9.1.5
Specialists ­ water lilies

Photo: P Hancock

9.1.6
Specialists ­ fruit trees
Photos: M Paxton
Photo: M Kamakama




147

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.1.7
Breeders ­ reedbeds, floodplains
Photo: P Hancock
Photo: K Oake
Photos: M Paxton
Photo: M Paxton


9.1.8
Breeders ­ overhanging trees
Photo: V Shacks
Photo: G Humphrey
Photo: P Hancock
Photo: K Oake




148

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.1.9
Breeders ­ banks
Photos: M Paxton
Photo: P Scheepers
Photo: M Visser
Photo: M Kamakama


9.1.10
Breeders ­ rocks, sandbars
Photos: M Paxton








149

---

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.2. Piscivores,
open
water
(Predominantly feed on fish, main river/adjoining pools) - Kingfishers, cormorants, darters.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Birds: Piscivores of open water
B irds: P iscivo res o f o pen water
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Birds: Piscivores of open water
B irds: P iscivo res o f o pen water
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Birds: Piscivores of open water
B irds: P iscivo res, open water
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Birds: Piscivores of open water
B irds: P iscivo res o f o pen water
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




151

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
These birds generally thrive during low flow levels because their fish prey is more concentrated
and vulnerable in the main river and/or isolated pools. However, at prolonged low flows or
excessively low flows the prey base will be negatively affected if the floodplains where fish breed
are not inundated.

B irds: Piscivo res of o pen water
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation generally will favour these birds as flows will be slightly reduced; exceptions will be
at Site 1, where the lowflow flows are considerably reduced and so there will be very little hunting
area available.

Moderate Scenario
This situation generally will favour these birds as flows will be slightly more reduced; an exception
will be exceptions will be at Site 1, where the lowflow flows are considerably reduced and so there
will be very little hunting area available and on the Boteti because if there is no water here, more
areas of suitable habitat will be lost.

High Scenario
This situation will ultimately depress the food supply to very low levels, making conditions
unfavourable for these birds. In the Boteti, habitat for these birds is virtually nil under the high
scenario.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



152

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.3. Piscivores,
shallow
water
(Hunt from overhanging trees on shallow backwaters by ambush techniques) - Larger
herons/egrets

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Birds: Piscivores - shallow water
B irds: P iscivores - shal ow water
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Birds: Piscivores - shallow water
B irds: P iscivores - shal ow water
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Birds: Piscivores - shallow water
Birds: Piscivores, shal ow water
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: P iscivores of shal ow water
B irds: P iscivo res of shal ow water
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




153

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
The shallower the water in the main channels and on the floodplains, the better for most of these
species because prey would be confined into smaller concentrations and hunting opportunities
would be improved.

B irds: Piscivo res - shal ow water
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would slightly favour these birds because of improved hunting opportunities, until
such time as prey species are reduced by water levels too low to enable them to breed
successfully.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would slightly favour these birds because of improved hunting opportunities, until
such time as prey species are reduced by water levels too low to enable them to breed
successfully.

High Scenario
This scenario will reduce prey species below sustainable levels, and although water levels would
be favourable for these birds, lack of prey species would make this scenario intolerable, causing
population declines, and the demise of some species.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



154

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.4. Piscivores
(Feed on fish-fry at receding water level times after spawning in flood-plains, or fish trapped in
drying pools.) - Little Egret, Black Heron, Glossy Ibis, Saddle-billed Stork, Lapwings.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
B irds: P iscivores invert. feeders
Birds: Piscivores invert. feeders
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
B irds: P iscivores invert. feeders
Birds: Piscivores invert. feeders
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
B irds: P iscivores invert. feeders
Birds: Piscivores invert. feeders
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: P iscivo res and invert. feeders
Birds: Piscivores and invert. feeders
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




155

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Timing and volume of flow are critical for these birds - when the river first overflows its banks onto
the floodplains it causes optimal hunting and feeding conditions, and then again when receding
waters cause isolated pools, trapping small fish and invertebrates.

B irds: P iscivo res invert. feeders
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This scenario should not negatively affect the flooding and drying critical to these birds, but may
impact negatively on prey species and other food items.

Moderate Scenario
This scenario is slightly advanced over the low scenario, and should not negatively affect the
flooding and receding waters critical to these birds but prey and food item availability becomes
more critical.

High Scenario
Large water offtakes upstream will affect the critical flooding regime that these birds depend on,
and cause population declines and demise.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



156

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.5. Specialists,
floodplains
(Feed on molluscs, frogs, fish or selective vegetation and organisms occurring on shallow
floodplains) - African Openbill, ducks, geese, Wattled Crane.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
B irds: B lank 4
B irds: Specialists, flo odplains
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
B irds: B lank 4
B irds: Specialists, flo odplains
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
B irds: Specialists, floodplains
B irds: Specialists, flo odplains
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: Specialists, floodplains
B irds: Specialists, flo odplains
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev






157

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
These birds utilise floodplain areas when they are newly flooded and food availability is at its
optimal level due to new breeding and germination activities, and also when waters are receding
and food items are confined and concentrated i.e. inundation and receding of waters is vitally
important for this group of indicators.

B irds: Specialists, flo odplains
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Very little significant changes will occur under this scenario.

Moderate Scenario
This scenario will start to influence food item (snails, molluscs, submerged or floating
macrophytes) availability because flooding levels are being reduced to the extent that they will
negatively affect food item development.

High Scenario
At this stage, there should be a complete unavailability of food items for these specialist feeders
due to disrupted flood regimes causing a decline or demise of these species.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



158

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.6. Specialists,
water
lilies
(Floodplain pools (rising and receding water levels) and lily-pad covered inlets. Essential for
feeding habitat.) - African and Lesser Jacanas.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
B irds: B lank 5
B irds: Specialists water lilies
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Birds: Specialists water lilies
B irds: Specialists water lilies
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Birds: Specialists water lilies
B irds: Specialists, water lilies
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: Specialists, water lilies
B irds: Specialists, water lilies
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




159

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Whatever the flood regime, pockets of water lilies generally survive, either in backwaters, lagoons
or isolated pools, provide suitable habitat for these birds.

Birds: Specialists water lilies
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
No significant change will occur under this scenario.

Moderate Scenario
No significant change will occur under this scenario.

High Scenario
We do not foresee that any significant changes will occur under this scenario, given the resilient
nature of water lilies.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



160

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.7. Specialists,
fruit
trees
(Specialist frugivores in riparian fruit trees. When riverine fruit trees are in fruit they are an
important food source for a large variety of birds.) - Turacos, bulbuls.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
B irds: B lank 6
B irds: Specialists fruit trees
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
B irds: B lank 6
B irds: Specialists fruit trees
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
B irds: Specialists fruit trees
B irds: Specialists, fruit trees
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Birds: Specialists, fruit trees
B irds: Specialists, fruit trees
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev






161

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
These birds will only be indirectly influenced by changes in water flows i.e. they depend on fruit
bearing riparian trees that respond to changes in water flows. Because most of these tress are
long-lived, there will be a time lag of several years before fruit production will fail when trees start
dying from lack of water. The response from the birds should mirror to some extent that for the
plants (riparian trees) since if the riparian trees die due to low flows, there will not be a source of
food for the birds.

B irds: Specialists fruit trees
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
Given the long lag period and the perennial nature of the fruit trees, this scenario should not
significantly affect this indicator.

Moderate Scenario
This scenario may start negatively affecting fruit productivity of fruit-bearing trees, and therefore
start influencing these indicator species which may be forced to leave for more suitable habitat.

High Scenario
At this stage, most of the riparian trees, particularly in the lower reaches of the delta, would have
died and these indicator species would have left the area.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



162

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.8.
Breeders, reedbeds and fldplns
(Nesting habitat in reedbeds lining river banks, islands and on floodplains.) - Fan-tailed
Widowbird, weavers, bishops, herons and egrets.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
Birds: Breeders reedbeds fldplns
B irds: B reeders reedbeds fldplns
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Birds: Breeders reedbeds fldplns
B irds: B reeders reedbeds fldplns
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Birds: Breeders reedbeds fldplns
Birds: Breeders, reedbeds and fldplns
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: B reeders, reedbeds and fldplns
B irds: B lank 7
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




163

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
These birds must have reedbeds and other vegetation standing in water, in which to build nests
as a protective mechanism against predator access to their nests. Therefore, these birds
generally wait for high water levels to reach their peak before constructing nests so that the nests
are not flooded by rising waters.

B irds: Breeders reedbeds fldplns
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This should not affect the breeding cycle of these birds too drastically.

Moderate Scenario
During this scenario, there should be interference in the water flow, resulting in fluctuating and
unreliable high water level, that would disrupt breeding success rate due to nest flooding.

High Scenario
Under this scenario, most of the indicator species will be drastically affected because suitable
nesting habitats will be radically reduced due to insufficient water flow and erratically changing
water levels during their breeding period.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



164

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.9.
Breeders, overhanging trees
(Colonial breeders or solitary nesters requiring over-hanging vegetation for nest safety or
fledglings vacating the nest) - Herons, cormorants, darters.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
B irds: B reeders, o verhanging trees
B irds: B reeders, overhanging trees
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
B irds: B reeders, o verhanging trees
B irds: B reeders, overhanging trees
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
B irds: B reeders, o verhanging trees
B irds: B reeders, overhanging trees
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: B reeders, o verhanging trees
B irds: B lank 8
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




165

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Trees overhanging water are critical to the breeding success of these birds for two reasons:
protection against predators, and for refuge by chicks when disturbed.

B irds: B reeders, overhanging trees
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Lo w Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
A lesser flow may not influence the breeding activities of these birds too drastically, because
there should still be overhanging trees suitable for breeding, although at this point they should be
less available.

Moderate Scenario
A moderate flow reduction may not influence the breeding activities of these birds too much,
because there should still be overhanging trees suitable for breeding although at this point they
should be less available.

High Scenario
Overhanging trees are will become less suitable or availabledue to interrupted and lessening
water flow, and may cause population declines.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



166

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.10. Breeders,
banks
(Require vertical banks for nest holes or the grassy banks for nest sites and fledgling
development (Note that kingfishers have been excluded)) - Bee-eaters, Collared Pratincoles,
lapwings.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
B irds: B lank 7
B irds: B lank 9
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
B irds: B reeders on banks
Birds: Breeders on banks
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
B irds: B reeders on banks
B irds: B reeders, banks
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: B reeders on banks
B irds: B lank 9
500
500
% P D
% P D
450
400
400
350
300
300
200
250
200
100
150
0
100
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
50
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




167

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
These birds are influenced only by the timing of flood recession, which exposes vertical or grassy
banks for breeding purposes - they are not necessarily dependent on the river flow for their food
supply.

B irds: B reeders on banks
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
The low scenario should have no noticeable effect on this indicator group.

Moderate Scenario
If a large amount of water were to be released into the system from a dam, this could
unseasonably flood breeding sites for these birds, which would obviously affect them negatively,
particularly those using vertical banks.

High Scenario
If a large amount of water were to be released into the system from a dam, this could
unseasonably flood breeding sites for these birds, which would obviously affect them negatively,
particularly those using vertical banks. Grassy banks on the other hand, will become unsuitable
for breeding purposes if floodplain regimes are altered.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



168

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
9.11.
Breeders, rocks, sandbars
(Totally dependent on emerged rocks, sandbars and islands in the main river for nesting
purposes) - Rock Pratincole, African Skimmer, sandpipers, thick-knees.

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
B irds: B reeders, rocks, sandbars
B irds: B lank 10
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
B irds: B lank 10
B irds: B lank 10
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
B irds: B reeders, rocks, sandbars
B irds: B reeders, rocks, sandbars
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
B irds: B reeders, rocks, sandbars
B irds: B lank 10
500
% P D
500
% P D
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
1983 1985 1987 1989
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001
P D New/sim
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev
P D New
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev




169

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Summary change per scenario
Low flow levels generally benefit these birds as this is the time when sandbanks and rocks are
exposed for breeding. However, very low flows will result in sandbanks becoming accessible to
predators and also negatively affect the food supply of those that eat fish that breed on
floodplains.

B irds: B reeders, rocks, sandbars
M edian % of P D
500
abundance
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
M ed Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
These birds should do well under slightly reduced flows, as long as the sandbars remain isolated
and inaccessible to predators.

Moderate Scenario
Probably very similar to low scenario, but getting progressively worse for these birds.

High Scenario
Interrupted and lessening water flow will eliminate suitable breeding sites and negatively impact
on breeding success by either flooding of nest sites in unseasonal high water situations, or joining
sandbars to the mainland during extreme unseasonal low water situations, with increased
predator accessibility. Food availability could also be negatively influenced by low water levels for
some species.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




170

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10. Socio-economic
indicators
This section provides the time-series for the basic catch, harvest, production, socio-economic
indicators under the flow regime resulting from each scenario. It also shows the estimated
median impact from present day, first by percentage change of a measure of production, then by
a change in livelihoods in local currencies, and then by a change in contribution to national
income. The indicators presented here are:
· Household income - fish
· Household income - reeds
· Household income - floodplain grass
· Household income - floodplain gardens (molapo farming)
· Household income and wealth - livestock
· Household income - tourism
· Potable water/water quality
· Indirect
use
· Non-use
Livelihood and economic contribution values are in local currencies, where in 2008, US$1.00 =
75.20 Angolan Kwanza (Kz) = 8.16 Namibia Dollars (N$) = 7.16 Botswana Pula (P).
10.1. Photographs

10.1.1
Household income - fish

Fishing




10.1.2
Household income - reeds



171

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Reeds



10.1.3
Household income - floodplain grass

Floodplain grass




10.1.4
Household income - floodplain gardens (molapo farming)



172

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Floodplain crops



10.1.5
Household income and wealth - livestock
Floodplain grazing






10.1.6
Household income - tourism



173

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Tourism




10.1.7 Wellbeing/welfare from intangibles

Overall wellbeing





174

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.1.8 Indirect
use
Indirect use values




10.1.9 Non-use

Non-use values









175

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.2.
Household income - fish

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
100
Fish catch
90
80
70
60
PD 50
40
% of 30
20
100
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
100
Fish catch
80
60
PD
40
% of
20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Fish catch
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Fish catch
150
100
PD
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle


176

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Fish catch
140
120
100
80
PD 60
% of 40
20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Fish catch
200
180
160
140
120
10
PD 0
80
% of 60
40
200
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Fish catch
100
80
PD60
40
% of
20
0
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Fish catch
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



177

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Fish catch - summary change per scenario

The catch tends to peak during floods in areas with floodplains. In areas without floodplains
catches are more stable. At prolonged low flows or excessively low flows fish abundance will be
negatively affected if the floodplains where fish breed are not inundated. Generally the scenarios
will progressively reduce catch. In the lower basin the high scenario will severely reduce fish
catch.



Socio-Economics: Fish catch
Median % of PD
120
abundance
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation generally will reduce catch from PD levels as there is essentially a reduction in
overall fish populations; the biggest drop will be in the channel fishery in site 1, where low flow
water levels are considerably reduced.

Moderate Scenario
This situation generally will reduce the fish catch further as flows will be slightly more reduced; the
biggest drop will be in the channel fishery in site 1, where low flow water levels are considerably
reduced.

High Scenario
This situation will generally reduce fish catches further which as a result of reduced flow generally
which will ultimately depress fish stocks; this will be very marked in the lower parts of the basin
from sites 5 to site 7, where floodplain flooding will be significantly reduced. At site 8 the fishery
will be effectively eliminated.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




Fish livelihoods - summary change per scenario

The net incomes for fishers or livelihoods tend along with catches to peak during floods in areas
with floodplains. In the areas without net incomes are more stable. The relatively simple small
scale enterprise is not particularly sensitive to catch reduction and so the patter is similar to that
for catch.



178

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results


Socio-Economics: Fish catch
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation generally will reduce net fishing incomes or fish livelihoods from PD levels as there
is essentially a reduction in overall fish populations; the biggest drop will be in the channel fishery
in site 1, where low flow water levels are considerably reduced.

Moderate Scenario
This situation generally will reduce the net fishing incomes or fish livelihoods further as flows will
be slightly more reduced; the biggest drop will be in the channel fishery in site 1, where low flow
water levels are considerably reduced.

High Scenario
This situation will generally reduce net fishing incomes or fish livelihoods further which as a result
of reduced flow generally which will ultimately depress fish stocks; this will be very marked in the
lower parts of the basin from sites 5 to site 7, where floodplain flooding will be significantly
reduced. At site 8 the fishery will be effectively eliminated.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.





Fish national income contribution - summary change per scenario

The contribution to national income (economic contribution) of household fishing tends, along with
catch and net income, to peak during floods in areas with floodplains. In areas without floodplains
economic contribution is more stable. Generally the scenarios will progressively reduce economic
contribution. In the lower basin the high scenario will severely reduce fish economic contribution.



179

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results


Socio-Economics: Fish catch
10000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation generally will reduce fish economic contribution from PD levels as there is
essentially a reduction in overall fish populations; the biggest drop will be in the channel fishery in
site 1, where low flow water levels are considerably reduced.

Moderate Scenario
This situation generally will reduce the fish economic contribution further as flows will be slightly
more reduced; the biggest drop will be in the channel fishery in site1, where low flow water levels
are considerably reduced.

High Scenario
This situation will generally reduce fish economic contribution further which as a result of reduced
flow generally which will ultimately depress fish stocks; this will be very marked in the lower parts
of the basin at sites 5 and 6, where floodplain flooding will be significantly reduced. At sites 7 and
8 the economic value of fishery will be effectively eliminated.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


180

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.3.
Household income - reeds


Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
100
Reed harvest
90
80
70
60
PD 50
40
% of 30
20
100
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
100
Reed harvest
80
60
PD
40
% of
20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Reed harvest
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Reed harvest
150
100
PD
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle


181

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Reed harvest
100
80
60
PD
40
% of 20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Reed harvest
100
80
60
PD
40
% of 20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa

Reed harvest
100
80
PD60
40
% of
20
0
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev





182

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Reed harvest - summary change per scenario

Reeds occur in two indicator vegetation sites; upper wetbank, and lower floodplain, and are
harvested at both. Harvest response is complex and tends to reflect change in the extent of these
stands. Also making it complex is a limit in terms of capacity to harvest and market demand to the
response to changes in extent of reeds. Thus the response is muted, and it depends on how well
used the PD stocks are. There is no longer significant reed use at site 8.


Socio-Economics: Reed harvest
Median % of PD
120
abundance
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would reduce reed harvest by about half at site 1, and it would increase harvest by
up to 20% in sites 4 and 7. This is due to the expected increase in upper wetbank and lower
floodplain at these sites. Elsewhere no change in reed harvest is expected.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
increase in harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, again, due to the expected
increase in upper wetbank and lower floodplain at these sites.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
increase in harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, again, due to the expected
increase in upper wetbank and lower floodplain at these sites. In sites 5 and 6, there would be
small reductions in reed harvest as a result of reduced reed habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.





Reed livelihood - summary change per scenario

The net income or livelihood from household reed harvest is expected to remain relatively stable
in all sites where reeds are harvested except in site 1, where an already well used resource will
decline notably. Elsewhere there will be small increases in household reed livelihoods at sites 4
and 7. Small decreases may be experienced with the high water use scenario at sites 5 and 6.


183

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results


Socio-Economics: Reed harvest
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would reduce livelihood from household reed harvest by about half at site 1, and it
would increase livelihoods slightly in sites 4 and 7. This is due to the expected increase in upper
wetbank and lower floodplain at these sites. Elsewhere no change in reed livelihoods is expected.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the slight
increase in livelihood from household reed harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant,
again, due to the expected increase in upper wetbank and lower floodplain at these sites.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
slight increase in livelihood from household reed harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be more
significant, again, due to the expected increase in upper wetbank and lower floodplain at these
sites. In sites 5 and 6, there would be small reductions in reed livelihoods as a result of reduced
reed habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




Reed contribution to national income - summary change per scenario

The pattern for the contribution of household reed harvest to national income is very similar to
that for livelihoods. The contribution is expected to remain relatively stable in all sites where reeds
are harvested except in site 1, where an already well used resource will decline notably.
Elsewhere there will be small increases in reed economic contribution at sites 4 and 7. Small
decreases may be experienced with the high water use scenario at sites 5 and 6.




184

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Socio-Economics: Reed harvest
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would reduce reed economic contribution by about half at site 1, and it would
increase it slightly in sites 4 and 7. This is due to the expected increase in upper wetbank and
lower floodplain at these sites. Elsewhere no change in reed harvest value is expected.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the slight
increase in reed economic contribution in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, again, due to
the expected increase in upper wetbank and lower floodplain at these sites.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
slight increase in reed economic contribution in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, again,
due to the expected increase in upper wetbank and lower floodplain at these sites. In sites 5 and
6, there would be small reductions in reed economic contribution as a result of reduced reed
habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


185

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.4.
Household income - floodplain grass


Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
100
Grass harvest
90
80
70
60
PD 50
40
% of 30
20
100
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
100
Grass harvest
80
60
PD
40
% of
20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Grass harvest
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Grass harvest
150
100
PD
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle


186

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Grass harvest
100
80
60
PD
40
% of 20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Grass harvest
100
80
60
PD
40
% of 20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa

Grass harvest
100
80
PD60
40
% of
20
0
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev





187

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Floodplain grass harvest - summary change per scenario

Floodplain grass occurs in two indicator vegetation sites; middle and upper floodplain, and it is
harvested at both. Harvest response is complex and tends to reflect change in the extent of these
stands. Also making it complex is a limit in terms of capacity to harvest and market demand to the
response to changes in extent of floodplain grass. Thus the response is muted, and it depends on
how well used the PD stocks are. There is no longer significant floodplain grass use at site 8.


Socio-Economics: Grass harvest
120 Median % of PD
abundance
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would reduce floodplain grass harvest by about half at site 1, and it would increase
harvest by up to 20% in sites 4 and 7. This is due to the expected increase in middle and upper
floodplain at these sites. Elsewhere no change in floodplain grass harvest is expected.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
increase in harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, again, due to the expected
increase in middle and upper floodplain at these sites.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
increase in harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, again, due to the expected
increase in middle and upper floodplain at these sites. In sites 5 and 6, there would be small
reductions in floodplain grass harvest as a result of reduced floodplain grass habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




Floodplain grass livelihood - summary change per scenario

The net income or livelihood from household floodplain grass harvest is expected to remain
relatively stable in all sites where floodplain grass are harvested except in site 1, where an
already well used resource will decline notably. Elsewhere there will be small increases in
household floodplain grass livelihoods at sites 4 and 7. Small decreases may be experienced with
the high water use scenario at sites 5 and 6.


188

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results


Socio-Economics: Grass harvest
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would reduce livelihood from household floodplain grass harvest by about half at
site 1, and it would increase livelihoods slightly in sites 4 and 7. This is due to the expected
increase in middle and upper floodplain at these sites. Elsewhere no change in floodplain grass
livelihoods is expected.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the slight
increase in livelihood from household floodplain grass harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be more
significant, again, due to the expected increase in middle and upper floodplain at these sites.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
slight increase in livelihood from household floodplain grass harvest in sites 4 and 7 would be
more significant, again, due to the expected increase in middle and upper floodplain at these
sites. In sites 5 and 6, there would be small reductions in floodplain grass livelihoods as a result
of reduced floodplain grass habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


Floodplain grass contribution to national income - summary change per scenario

The pattern for the contribution of household floodplain grass harvest to national income is very
similar to that for livelihoods. The contribution is expected to remain relatively stable in all sites
where floodplain grasses are harvested except in site 1, where an already well used resource will
decline notably. Elsewhere there will be small increases in floodplain grass economic contribution
at sites 4 and 7. Small decreases may be experienced with the high water use scenario at sites 5
and 6.




189

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Socio-Economics: Grass harvest
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would reduce floodplain grass economic contribution by about half at site 1, and it
would increase it slightly in sites 4 and 7. This is due to the expected increase in middle and
upper floodplain at these sites. Elsewhere no change in floodplain grass harvest value is
expected.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the slight
increase in floodplain grass economic contribution in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
slight increase in floodplain grass economic contribution in sites 4 and 7 would be more
significant. In sites 5 and 6, there would be small reductions in floodplain grass economic
contribution as a result of reduced floodplain grass habitat.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.


190

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.5. Household
income - floodplain gardens (e.g. molapo farming)


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Gardens
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Gardens
150
100
PD
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop


Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River
Gardens
Gardens
100
150
80
D 60
f
P
100

PD
40
% o
% of 50
20
0
0
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev

PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev





191

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Floodplain garden production - summary change per scenario

Floodplain gardens are produced in two indicator vegetation types; lower and middle floodplain
and only at sites 3, 4, 7 and 8. Harvest response is complex and tends to reflect change in the
extent of these habitats. Also making it complex is a limit in terms of capacity to increase
production in response to changes in extent of habitat. Thus the response tends to be muted.


Socio-Economics: Gardens
Median % of PD
120
abundance
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would increase floodplain garden production by between 5% and 20% at sites 4
and 7. This is due to expected increase in lower and middle floodplain at these sites. At site 8
decreasing flooding would reduce the floodplain gardens by about 10%.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
increase in garden production in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, again, due to an
expected increase in lower and middle floodplain at these sites. There would also be a bigger
drop in garden production at site 8.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
increase in gardens in site 4 would be less, and that for site 7 would be significantly more, again,
due to the expected increase in lower and middle floodplain at these sites. In site 8, garden
production would be almost eliminated

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




Floodplain garden livelihood - summary change per scenario

The net income or livelihood from household floodplain gardens is expected to remain relatively
stable in all sites, but wil follow the same patterns noted for garden production. Thus there will be
small increases in household floodplain garden livelihoods at sites 4 and 7. Decreases will be
experienced at site 8.



192

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results

Socio-Economics: Gardens
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would cause livelihood from household floodplain garden production to follow the
same pattern as that for production, above. Thus it would increase livelihoods slightly in sites 4
and 7, and reduce them in site 8.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, the slight increase in
livelihood from household floodplain gardens in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, and the
reduction at site 8 would be greater.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
slight increase in livelihood from household floodplain gardens in sites 4 and 7 would be more
significant. At site 4 livelihoods would decrease slightly below those for the moderate scenario. In
site 8, there would be almost no livelihoods from floodplain gardens.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.









193

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Floodplain garden contribution to national income - summary change per scenario

The pattern for the contribution of household floodplain gardens to national income is very similar
to that for livelihoods. It is expected to remain relatively stable in all sites, but will follow the same
patterns noted for garden production. Thus there will be small increases in household floodplain
garden livelihoods at sites 4 and 7. Decreases will be experienced at sites 8. The medium and
high scenarios will actually result in economic losses in the short term.


Socio-Economics: Gardens
4000
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would cause economic contribution from household floodplain garden production to
follow the same pattern as that for production, above. It would increase livelihoods slightly in sites
4 and 7, and reduce them to zero in site 8.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, the slight increase in
livelihood from household floodplain gardens in sites 4 and 7 would be more significant, and the
reduction at site 8 would be greater, with a short term economic loss.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, except that the
slight increase in economic contribution from household floodplain gardens in sites 4 and 7 would
be more significant. At site 4 livelihoods would decrease slightly below those for the moderate
scenario. In site 8, there would be an economic loss from floodplain gardens.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



194

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.6.
Household income and wealth - livestock (floodplain grazing)


Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Livestock output
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Livestock output
160
140
120
100
PD 80
60
% of 40
200
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Livestock output
100
80
60
PD
40
% of 20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Livestock output
100
80
PD60
40
% of
20
0
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 8: Boteti River


195

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Livestock output
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop





196

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Floodplain grazing production - summary change per scenario

Floodplain grazing takes place in three indicator vegetation types; lower middle and upper
floodplain and only at sites 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8. The grazing production response to scenarios is
complex and tends to reflect change in the extent of these habitats. At sites 4 and 6 production
will tend to be stable. At site 7 it is likely to expand significantly with increase in drier floodplains.
At site 8 it would decrease as drier floodplains change to savanna.


Socio-Economics: Livestock output
200
Median % of PD
abundance
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would increase floodplain grazing production slightly at sites 4 and 7, and decrease
it at site 8.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in little change at site 4 but an increase of some 20% in grazing
production in site 7. There would be a bigger drop in grazing production at site 8.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the moderate scenario, except
that the increase in grazing production in site 7 would be much greater, and the decrease in
grazing production at site 8, would be much greater, almost eliminating it.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.







Floodplain grazing livelihood - summary change per scenario

The net income or livelihood from household floodplain grazing is expected to remain relatively
stable in sites 4 and 6, but at sites 7 and 8 will follow the same patterns noted for grazing
production. Thus there will be increases in household floodplain grazing livelihoods at site 7 and
decreases will be experienced at site 8.



197

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results

Socio-Economics: Livestock output
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would cause livelihood from household floodplain grazing to follow the same pattern
as that for production, above. Thus it would increase livelihoods slightly in site 7, and reduce them
in site 8.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, the slight increase in
livelihood from household floodplain grazing in site 7 would be more significant, and the reduction
at site 8 would be greater.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the medium scenario, except that
the slight increase in livelihood from household floodplain grazing in site 7 would be more
significant. At site 8, there would be almost no livelihoods from floodplain grazing.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.












198

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Floodplain grazing contribution to national income - summary change per scenario

The pattern for the contribution of household floodplain grazing to national income is very similar
to that for livelihoods. It is expected to remain relatively stable in sites 4 and 6, but will increase
significantly in site 7 and will decrease to result in a short term economic loss in site 8.


Socio-Economics: Livestock output
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
-2000
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would cause economic contribution from household floodplain grazing production to
follow the same pattern as that for production, above. It would increase economic contribution
slightly in site 7, and reduce them below zero in site 8.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would result in a similar response to that for the low scenario, the slight increase in
economic contribution from household floodplain grazing in site 7 would be more significant, and
the reduction at site 8 would be greater, with a short term economic loss.

High Scenario
This scenario would also result in a similar response to that for the medium scenario, except that
the slight increase in economic contribution from household floodplain grazing in site 7 would be
more significant. In site 8, there would be an economic loss from floodplain gardens.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.




199

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.7. Household
income
and macro effects - tourism

Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Tourist numbers
160
140
120
100
PD 80
60
% of 40
200
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle
Tourist numbers
100
80
60
PD
40
% of 20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Tourist numbers
250
200
150
PD
100
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 7: Okavango River @ Xakanaxa
Site 8: Boteti River


200

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Tourist numbers
100
80
PD60
40
% of
20
0
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Tourist numbers
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop





201

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Tourism numbers - summary change per scenario

Tourism makes use of a complex range of habitats including river banks channels, and
floodplains at sites 4 to 8. It appears to be responsive to changes in dry season low flow, flood
type, and wildlife abundance. The response to scenarios shows a generally sharply declining
trend with increasing water use development upstream. The only exception is in the central delta
(site 7). In site 4 the high scenario gives higher numbers than is better than the medium scenario
but both are lower than present day. Site 8 shows complete elimination of tourism with high
scenario.

Socio-Economics: Tourist numbers
180 Median % of PD
abundance
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would decrease tourism numbers at all downstream sites (4 to 8) except 7, where
they would increase slightly.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would decrease tourism numbers significantly at all downstream sites (4 to 8)
except 7, where they would increase slightly.

High Scenario
This scenario would also decrease tourism numbers significantly at most downstream sites (4 to
8) except 7, where they would increase significantly. The impact of the high scenario at site 4
would be less than that of scenario 3.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.







Tourism livelihood - summary change per scenario

The net income or household livelihoods from tourism shows the same trends as for tourism
numbers, but the changes are not as extreme. This because the household income is made up of
wages and salaries, which are less sensitive than other income such as profits.



202

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results

Socio-Economics: Tourist livelihood
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would decrease tourism livelihood at all downstream sites (4 to 8) except 7, where
they would increase slightly.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would decrease tourism livelihood significantly at all downstream sites (4 to 8)
except 7, where they would increase slightly.

High Scenario
This scenario would also decrease tourism livelihood significantly at most downstream sites (4 to
8) except 7, where they would increase. The impact of the high scenario at site 4 would be less
than that of scenario 3.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.












203

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Tourism contribution to national income - summary change per scenario

The contribution to the national income from tourism shows the same trends as for tourism
numbers and livelihoods, but the changes are less extreme at site 4 and much more extreme at
the other sites. In particular at sites 5, 6, and 8 the short term impacts of the high scenario are
major economic losses. This will in the longer term result in a much reduced tourism industry in
the basin. The medium scenario will have a similar impact, but not as large.



Socio-Economics: Tourism economic contribution
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
0
-1,000,000
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
-2,000,000
-3,000,000
-4,000,000
-5,000,000
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would decrease the economic contribution of tourism moderately significantly at all
downstream sites (except 4, where the drop would be small) and except 7 (where it would
increase slightly).

Moderate Scenario
This situation would decrease the economic contribution of tourism moderately significantly at all
downstream sites (except 4, where the drop would be small) and except 7 (where it would
increase slightly). Economic losses would result in the short term at site 8.

High Scenario
This situation would decrease the economic contribution of tourism very significantly at all
downstream sites (except 4, where the drop would be small) and except 7 (where it would
increase significantly). Significant economic losses would result in the short term at sites 5, 6, and
8.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.



204

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.8.
Potable water/water quality

Site 1: Cubango River @ Capico
Site 2: Cubango River @ Mucundi
100
Water quality- well-being
90
80
70
60
PD 50
40
% of 30
20
100
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
100
Water quality- well-being
80
60
PD
40
% of
20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 3: Cuito River @ Cuito Cuanavale
Site 4: Okavango River @ Rundu
Water quality- well-being
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
Water quality- well-being
160
140
120
100
PD 80
60
% of 40
200
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 5: Okavango River @ Popa Falls
Site 6: Okavango River @ Pan Handle


205

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Water quality- well-being
200
180
160
140
120
10
PD 0
80
% of 60
40
200
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop
Water quality- well-being
100
80
60
PD
40
% of 20
0
59
62
65
68
71
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop

Site 8: Boteti River
Water quality- well-being
150
10
PD 0
% of 50
0
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
20
PD New/sim
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev
PD Obs/Wshop





206

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
Potable water/water quality - summary change per scenario

Potable water quality as a measure of dissatisfaction (non-wellbeing), was not valued, and the
impact on this from scenarios was only assessed subjectively in terms of percentage of PD
(present day). At most sites a small increase was predicted, while at site 8, drying of channels
would result in significant increase in negative effects increasing with scenario. A moderate
impact would be seen at site 1 with all scenarios, and at sites 5 and 6 a moderate impact would
be seen with high scenario.


Socio-Economics: Water quality - wellbeing
Median % of PD
200
abundance
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would have little effect, except at site 1 and site 8, where small or moderate
negative effects may be seen

Moderate Scenario
This situation would have little effect, except at site 1, where a moderate negative effect may be
experienced, and at site 8 where a significant negative effect may be experienced.

High Scenario
This situation would have little effect, except at site 1, 5, and 6, where a moderate negative effect
may be experienced, and at site 8 where a very significant negative effect may be experienced.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.





207

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.9. Wellbeing/welfare
from
intangibles
Wellbeing/welfare from intangibles - summary change per scenario

Household and community wellbeing from intangibles was not valued but assessed in terms of
percentage deviation for PD (present day). It is intended to reflect household perception of
ecosystem integrity. The response to scenarios shows a generally declining trend with increasing
water use development upstream. Declines are mostly small, but greater in site 8 and site 1,
where effects on flow and flooding may be most noticeable.


Socio-Economics: Intangibles- well-being
Median % of PD
120
abundance
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would decrease wellbeing slightly at nearly all sites, but moderately at site 1.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would decrease wellbeing slightly at nearly all sites, but moderately at site 1, 2 and
8.

High Scenario
This situation would decrease wellbeing slightly at site 4, moderately to severely at sites 1, 2, 5, 6,
7, and 8.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.





208

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.10. Indirect
use
Indirect use - summary change per scenario

Effects of scenarios on indirect use values were not valued for lack of data, but were subjectively
assigned impacts in terms of percentage change from PD (present day). These showed quite
significant progressive declines with increasing water use. These were most noticeable with site 1
and site 8.


Socio-Economics: Indirect use
Median % of PD
120
abundance
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would decrease indirect use value slightly at nearly all sites, but significantly at site
1.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would decrease indirect use value slightly or moderately at nearly all sites, but
significantly at sites 1, and 8.

High Scenario
This situation would decrease indirect use value moderately at sites 2, 4, 5, 6, and severely at site
1, and site 8.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.






209

---

E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
10.11. Non
use
Non use - summary change per scenario

Effects of scenarios on non-use values were not valued for lack of data, but were subjectively
assigned impacts in terms of percentage change from PD (present day). Here again the effects
on ecosystem integrity were considered key. The assessment showed quite significant
progressive declines with increasing water use. These were most noticeable with site 1 and site
8.

Socio-Economics: Non-use
Median % of PD
120
abundance
100
80
60
40
20
0
SITE 1
SITE 2
SITE 3
SITE 4
SITE 5
SITE 6
SITE 7
SITE 8
PD Simulated
Low Dev
Med Dev
High Dev



Low Scenario
This situation would decrease non-use value slightly at nearly all sites, but significantly at site 1.

Moderate Scenario
This situation would decrease non-use value slightly or moderately at nearly all sites, but
significantly at sites 1, 2, and 8.

High Scenario
This situation would decrease non-use value moderately at sites 2, 4, 5, 6, and severely at site 1,
and site 8.

References
Southern Waters. 2009. Okavango EF Assessment Databases. Response curves for indicator.
MS Excel.





210

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E-flows Ecological and Social Predictions Scenario Report Indicator Results
The Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Technical Reports

In 1994, the three riparian countries of the Okavango
establish a base of available scientific evidence to
River Basin ­ Angola, Botswana and Namibia ­ agreed
guide future decision making. The study, created from
to plan for collaborative management of the natural
inputs from multi-disciplinary teams in each country,
resources of the Okavango, forming the Permanent
with specialists in hydrology, hydraulics, channel form,
Okavango River Basin Water Commission (OKACOM).
water quality, vegetation, aquatic invertebrates, fish,
In 2003, with funding from the Global Environment
birds, river-dependent terrestrial wildlife, resource
Facility, OKACOM launched the Environmental
economics and socio-cultural issues, was coordinated
Protection and Sustainable Management of the
and managed by a group of specialists from the
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO) Project to coordinate
southern African region in 2008 and 2009.
development and to anticipate and address threats to

the river and the associated communities and
The following specialist technical reports were
environment. Implemented by the United Nations
produced as part of this process and form substantive
Development Program and executed by the United
background content for the Okavango River Basin
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the project
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis.
produced the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis to

Final Study
Reports integrating findings from all country and background reports, and covering the entire
Reports
basin.


Aylward, B.
Economic Valuation of Basin Resources: Final Report to
EPSMO Project of the UN Food & Agriculture Organization as
an Input to the Okavango River Basin Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis


Barnes, J. et al.
Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis:
Socio-Economic Assessment Final Report


King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Project
C.A.
Initiation Report (Report No: 01/2009)


King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment EFA
C.A.
Process Report (Report No: 02/2009)


King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Guidelines for Data Collection, Analysis and Scenario Creation
(Report No: 03/2009)

Bethune,
S.
Mazvimavi,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
D. and Quintino, M.
Delineation Report (Report No: 04/2009)


Beuster, H.
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Hydrology Report: Data And Models(Report No: 05/2009)

Beuster,
H. Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Scenario Report : Hydrology (Report No: 06/2009)


Jones, M.J.
The Groundwater Hydrology of The Okavango Basin (FAO
Internal Report, April 2010)


King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 1
of 4)(Report No. 07/2009)


King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 2
of 4: Indicator results) (Report No. 07/2009)


King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions: Climate
Change Scenarios (Volume 3 of 4) (Report No. 07/2009)


King, J., Brown, C.A.,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Joubert, A.R. and
Scenario Report: Biophysical Predictions (Volume 4 of 4:
Barnes, J.
Climate Change Indicator Results) (Report No: 07/2009)


King, J., Brown, C.A.
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Project
and Barnes, J.
Final Report (Report No: 08/2009)


Malzbender, D.
Environmental Protection And Sustainable Management Of The
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO): Governance Review


Vanderpost, C. and
Database and GIS design for an expanded Okavango Basin
Dhliwayo, M.
Information System (OBIS)


Veríssimo, Luis
GIS Database for the Environment Protection and Sustainable
Management of the Okavango River Basin Project

Wolski,
P.
Assessment of hydrological effects of climate change in the
Okavango Basin




Country Reports
Angola
Andrade e Sousa,
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Biophysical Series
Helder André de
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Sedimentologia &


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Geomorfologia


Gomes, Amândio
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Vegetação

Gomes,
Amândio
Análise Técnica, Biofísica e Socio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango: Relatório
Final:Vegetação da Parte Angolana da Bacia Hidrográfica Do
Rio Cubango


Livramento, Filomena
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina:Macroinvertebrados


Miguel, Gabriel Luís
Análise Técnica, Biofísica E Sócio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango:
Subsídio Para o Conhecimento Hidrogeológico
Relatório de Hidrogeologia


Morais, Miguel
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Análise Rio
Cubango (Okavango): Módulo da Avaliação do Caudal
Ambiental: Relatório do Especialista País: Angola Disciplina:
Ictiofauna

Morais,
Miguel
Análise Técnica, Biófisica e Sócio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango: Relatório
Final: Peixes e Pesca Fluvial da Bacia do Okavango em Angola


Pereira, Maria João
Qualidade da Água, no Lado Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica
do Rio Cubango

Santos,
Carmen
Ivelize
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Van-Dúnem S. N.
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório de
Especialidade: Angola: Vida Selvagem


Santos, Carmen Ivelize
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Van-Dúnem S.N.
Okavango:Módulo Avaliação do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório de
Especialidade: Angola: Aves

Botswana Bonyongo, M.C.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Wildlife


Hancock, P.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module : Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Birds

Mosepele,
K. Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Fish


Mosepele, B. and
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Dallas, Helen
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Aquatic Macro Invertebrates

Namibia
Collin Christian &
Okavango River Basin: Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
Associates CC
Project: Environmental Flow Assessment Module:
Geomorphology


Curtis, B.A.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report Country:
Namibia Discipline: Vegetation


Bethune, S.
Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO): Transboundary Diagnostic
Analysis: Basin Ecosystems Report


Nakanwe, S.N.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia: Discipline: Aquatic Macro Invertebrates

Paxton,
M. Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist
Report:Country:Namibia: Discipline: Birds (Avifauna)


Roberts, K.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia: Discipline: Wildlife

Waal,
B.V. Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia:Discipline: Fish Life
Country Reports
Angola
Gomes, Joaquim
Análise Técnica dos Aspectos Relacionados com o Potencial
Socioeconomic
Duarte
de Irrigação no Lado Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio
Series
Cubango: Relatório Final

Mendelsohn,
.J.
Land use in Kavango: Past, Present and Future


Pereira, Maria João
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Qualidade da Água


Saraiva, Rute et al.
Diagnóstico Transfronteiriço Bacia do Okavango: Análise
Socioeconómica Angola

Botswana Chimbari, M. and
Okavango River Basin Trans-Boundary Diagnostic Assessment
Magole, Lapologang
(TDA): Botswana Component: Partial Report: Key Public Health


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Issues in the Okavango Basin, Botswana

Magole,
Lapologang
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Land Use Planning


Magole, Lapologang
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) of the Botswana p
Portion of the Okavango River Basin: Stakeholder Involvement
in the ODMP and its Relevance to the TDA Process

Masamba,
W.R.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Output 4: Water Supply and
Sanitation


Masamba,W.R.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Irrigation Development

Mbaiwa.J.E. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Okavango River
Basin: the Status of Tourism Development in the Okavango
Delta: Botswana


Mbaiwa.J.E. &
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Tourism Activities
Mmopelwa, G.
and their Economic Benefits in the Okavango Delta

Mmopelwa,
G.
Okavango River Basin Trans-boundary Diagnostic Assessment:
Botswana Component: Output 5: Socio-Economic Profile


Ngwenya, B.N.
Final Report: A Socio-Economic Profile of River Resources and
HIV and AIDS in the Okavango Basin: Botswana

Vanderpost,
C.
Assessment of Existing Social Services and Projected Growth
in the Context of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the
Botswana Portion of the Okavango River Basin

Namibia
Barnes, J and
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Wamunyima, D
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report:
Country: Namibia: Discipline: Socio-economics


Collin Christian &
Technical Report on Hydro-electric Power Development in the
Associates CC
Namibian Section of the Okavango River Basin


Liebenberg, J.P.
Technical Report on Irrigation Development in the Namibia
Section of the Okavango River Basin


Ortmann, Cynthia L.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module : Specialist Report Country:
Namibia: discipline: Water Quality


Nashipili,
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis: Specialist
Ndinomwaameni
Report: Country: Namibia: Discipline: Water Supply and
Sanitation

Paxton,
C.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis: Specialist Report:
Discipline: Water Quality Requirements For Human Health in
the Okavango River Basin: Country: Namibia




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