TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
Okavango River Basin Trans-Boundary
Diagnostic Assessment (TDA):
Botswana Component
Climate Change and Tourism
Development
J. E. Mbaiwa
G. Mmopelwa
Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre
August 2009
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
Climate Change and Tourism Development
Assessing the impact of climate change on tourism activities and their
economic benefits in the Okavango Delta
Joseph E. Mbaiwa & Gagoitseope Mmopelwa
University of Botswana
Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre
August 2009
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
TABLE OF CONTENTS
TABLE OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... 3
TABLE OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................... 3
1.
BACKGROUND ................................................................................................................... 5
1.2
OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................ 5
1.3
THE STUDY AREA: THE OKAVANGO DELTA ................................................................ 5
1.4
Significance of the Survey.......................................................................................... 7
2.
METHODOLOGY ................................................................................................................. 8
3.
RESULTS ........................................................................................................................... 10
3.1
Types and Location of Business ............................................................................... 10
3.2
Type of Market and Services Provided .................................................................... 11
3.5
Size of Accommodation Establishments ................................................................. 11
3.6
High LevelHigh Volume Flooding ........................................................................... 12
3.7
Low LevelLow Volume Flooding (main channels and ledibas remain permanent) 13
3.8
Low LevelLow Volume Flooding (only deeper channels and ledibas remain) ....... 13
3.9
Low LevelLow Flooding (main channels and ledibas are seasonal and dry) .......... 14
3.10
Low LevelLow Volume Flooding (no flooding at all, boreholes drilled) ................. 15
3.11
Adaptations Strategies ............................................................................................ 15
3.12
General Comments .................................................................................................. 16
4.
Analysis of Results ........................................................................................................... 17
5.
Conclusion ....................................................................................................................... 19
6.
References ....................................................................................................................... 20
TABLE OF FIGURES
FIGURE 1: MAP OF BOTSWANA SHOWING THE OKAVANGO DELTA ........................................................ 6
FIGURE 2: CHARACTERIZATION OF FLOOD CATEGORIES ACCORDING TO FLOOD HEIGHT AND FLOOD
VOLUME .......................................................................................................................................... 9
TABLE OF TABLES
TABLE 1: TYPES OF ACCOMMODATION ESTABLISHMENTS .................................................................... 10
TABLE 2: LOCATION OF ACCOMMODATION ESTABLISHMENTS ............................................................. 10
TABLE 3: TOURIST SEGMENTS ................................................................................................................ 11
TABLE 4:SPECIALISATION OF TOURISM BUSINESS ................................................................................. 11
TABLE 5: THE NUMBER OF BEDS AVAILABLE .......................................................................................... 12
TABLE 6: HIGH LEVEL HIGH VOLUME FLOODING ................................................................................... 12
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
TABLE 7: LOW LEVEL LOW VOLUME FLOODING ..................................................................................... 13
TABLE 8: LOW LEVEL LOW VOLUME FLOODING ..................................................................................... 13
TABLE 9: LOW LEVEL LOW VOLUME FLOODING ..................................................................................... 14
TABLE 10: LOW LEVEL LOW VOLUME FLOODING ................................................................................... 15
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
1.
BACKGROUND
The EPSMO Trans-boundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) for the Okavango River
Basin is to be completed in 2009, and it will be informed by an Environmental Flows
Analysis (EFA), being carried out in parallel. The EFA involves the development of a
model with response curves which estimate changes in socio-economic values for
the basin in response to changes in river flows.
One of the most important economic activities in the lower parts of the basin is
nature-based tourism. The hydrological modeling for the lower river basin in
Botswana will involve an inundation or flooding model. A response curve will be
needed for the relationship between commercial tourism and its values, and changes
in inundation in the lower basin. No data exist for this relationship. The common
intuitive assumption is that tourism activities and values would decline if flooding
declined, but some evidence exists to suggest that the opposite might hold in certain
circumstances.
Tourism in the delta involves self-driven or guided use of campsites, and guided use
of lodge and tented camp accommodation. By far the bulk of the economic value is
derived from expenditure on the accommodation services and the expenditures
linked to these. The accommodation-based tourism product in the lower basin
commonly involves a combination of water-based and land-based experiences in
varying degrees of relative importance. Water-based experiences generally involve
guided boat and/or mokoro travel in channels, floodplains, and ledibas, for the
purposes of wildlife viewing and/or angling. Land-based experiences generally
involve guided travel by safari vehicle for game viewing drives, and guided walks on
trails, etc. This concept is for a survey of lodge managers and/or tour operators in
Botswana to determine their perceptions on how their tourism operations and outputs
would be affected by changes in flooding.
1.2
OBJECTIVES
The objective of this survey is to determine the perceptions of lodge managers/or
tour operators on how their tourism operations and outputs would be affected by
changes in flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana.
1.3
THE STUDY AREA: THE OKAVANGO DELTA
This study was carried out in the Okavango Delta located in north-western Botswana
(Figure 1). The Okavango Delta has a high ecological integrity. It is formed by the
inflow of the Okavango River which originates from the Angolan Highlands. The
Okavango River finally drains into northwestern Botswana to form the huge wetland
known as the Okavango Delta. The wetland covers an area of about 16, 000 square
kilometers (Tlou, 1985). Based on flooding frequencies, the delta can be partitioned
into five main regions, which are perennially flooded swamps (4887 sq. km),
seasonally flooded swamps (3855 sq. km), seasonally flooded grassland (2760 sq.
km), intermittently flooded areas (2502 sq. km) and dry land (1842 sq. km) (Ashton et
al., 2003). Gumbricht & McCarthy (2002) describe the geological formation of the
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
Okavango Delta as resulting from active uplift (upwelling) associated with the African
Superswell. The upwelling and faulting caused the flow of the Okavango River to split
into several channels that form many islands, lakes and lagoons. The Okavango
Delta is characterized by large amounts of open water and grasslands which sustain
human life, plant life, wildlife, birds, insects and various living organisms. According
to Okavango Delta Management Plan (2006), there are 1300 identified plant species,
71 fish, 33 amphibians, 64 reptiles, 444 birds and 122 mammals in the Delta.
Figure 1: Map of Botswana showing the Okavango Delta
The Okavango Delta is also home to 124,712 people who live within and around it
(CSO, 2002). Over 95 percent of these people directly or directly depend on the
natural resources found in the wetland to sustain their livelihoods (NWDC, 2003).
Livelihood activities include collection of various plant products for diffent uses,
fishing and flood recession farming (Kgathi et al., 2004). Due to its rich wildlife
diversity, permanent water resources, rich grasslands and forests and scenic
landscapes, the Okavango Delta has become one of the key international tourism
destinations in Botswana. The rich flora and fauna found in the Okavango Delta and
the increase in tourism development make the wetland a suitable site for
investigation in this study.
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
1.4
Significance of the Survey
This survey is considered significant because of the following reasons:
· The impacts likely to be caused by climate change in the Okavango Delta on
turnover in tourism businesses. That is, how high floods and low flooding
patterns in the Okavango Delta is likely to affect turnover in the different parts
of the Okavango Delta, and hence the national contribution of tourism to
GDP.
· Since the study is part of a series of studies on the Okavango River Basin
cutting across Angola, Namibia and Botswana, results of the survey should
inform decision makers on the best scenario in the integrated management of
the Okavango River Delta.
· The study also gives an insight on how tourism business managers are likely
to adapt to the changing flooding patterns as a result of climate change.
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2. METHODOLOGY
A sample of 48 tour operators based in Maun or lodge managers based in parts of
the delta was surveyed using a short face to face interview to determine their
perceptions regarding the effects of the output (turnover) of their own business in the
face of changes on flooding in the delta. An attempt was made to ensure that the
sample covers lodges/camps that offer mostly water-based experiences (e.g. Swamp
Stop, Jacana Camp or Little Vumbura), those that offer more or less both (e.g.
Xigera, Mombo, or Camp Moremi), or those that offer mostly land based activities
(e.g.Chitabe, Santawani or Khwai River Lodge).
Each respondent was asked questions relating to possible flooding patterns and
expected changes in business or economic output in their resort. The resorts were
characterized according to whether:
a) It caters for the upper-market, mid-market or lower market,
b) It specializes in mainly water-based activities, mainly land-based activities, or
similar amounts of both,
c) It is large (more than 30 beds), medium (20 to 30 beds) or small (up to 20
beds).
The respondents were asked to assume that the current annual turnover at that site
is 100%, and to suggest how turnover might change with each of the following long
term scenarios reflecting changes to the flooding patterns in their area, e.g., will it
increase from 100% by 25% to 125%? Or decease by 40% to 60%?
Their estimate of likely change in annual turnover output were made for each of the
following five scenarios:
i) High level - high volume flooding, as in the top right of Figure 1 below, to the
extent that the frequently flooded parts of their area become permanently
flooded, the occasionally flooded parts in their area become frequently flooded,
and the rarely flooded parts in their area become occasionally flooded. (Turnover
changes ____ (up or down) by ____% to become ____% of current levels)
ii) Low level - low volume flooding, as in the bottom left of Figure 1, to the
extent that the permanently flooded parts of their area become only frequently
flooded, the frequently flooded parts of their area become only occasionally
flooded and the occasionally flooded parts of their area become only rarely
flooded. Main channels and ledibas remain permanent. (Turnover would change
____ (up or down) by ____% to become ____% of current levels)
iii) Low level - low volume flooding, as in the bottom left of Figure 1, to the extent
that the permanently flooded parts of their area become only occasionally
flooded, the frequently flooded parts of their area become only rarely flooded and
the rarely flooded parts of their area become never flooded. Only the deeper
main channels and ledibas remain permanent while the rest become seasonal
only. (Turnover would change ____ (up or down) by ____% to become ____% of
current levels)
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
iv) Low level - low volume flooding, as in the bottom left of Figure 1, to the extent
that the permanently flooded parts of their area become only rarely flooded, and
frequently occasionally or rarely flooded parts of their area become never
flooded. The main channels and ledibas become seasonal and dry for much of
the year. (Turnover would change ____ (up or down) by ____% to become
____% of current levels)
v) Low level - low volume flooding, as in the bottom left of Figure 1, to the extent
that no flooding takes place in their area, and groundwater has to be tapped to
provide water points for game and to supply the camp. (Turnover would change
____ (up or down) by ____% to become ____% of current levels)
Respondents were further asked, in an open ended question, what adaptations if
any, they might be able to make to mitigate any damages they may suffer as a result
of these changes. They were also asked in an open-ended question, if they have
any comments, observations, or points of interest to make regarding the scenarios
and their possible effects on tourism.
Data was analyzed using simple cross-tabulation according to the types of facility
(upper, mid or lower market), product type (mainly water based, etc.), and size, as
well as scenario, with the scores being averaged. This was assumed will provide
basic data for the development of EFA response curves.
High peak
High peak
High peak
Low volume
High volume
Low peak
Low peak
Low volume
High volume
Low peak
Low volume High volume
Figure 2: Characterization of flood categories according to flood height and flood volume
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
3. RESULTS
3.1
Types and Location of Business
Since the 1990s, there has been an increase in tourism establishments in the
Okavango Delta. At present, it is estimated that the Okavango Delta has a total of
107 accommodation establishments. These establishments provide services for the
different tourism segments and are located in different parts of the Okavango Delta.
In determining the types of accommodation facilities, accommodation establishments
were categorised into the following: hotels, lodges, guesthouses and campsites as
shown in Table 1 below.
Table 1: Types of Accommodation Establishments
Type of Business
Frequency
Percentage
Hotel
2
4.2
Lodges
34
70.8
Guesthouses
1
2.1
Campsites
11
22.9
Totals
48
100.0
Results in Table 1 shows that of the 48 accommodation establishments whose
managers were interviewed, 4.2% are hotels, 70.8% are lodges, 2.1% are
guesthouses and 22.9% are campsites. These businesses are located in different
parts of the Okavango Delta. Location was divided into upper (panhandle), middle
and lower parts of the Okavango Delta. Results in Table 2 show that 10.4% of the
establishments in the survey are located in the upper part (panhandle) of the
Okavango Delta, 50.0% in the middle, while 39.6% are located in the lower parts of
the wetland.
Table 2: Location of Accommodation Establishments
Type of Business
Frequency
Percentage
Panhandle
5
10.4
Middle area of the Delta
24
50.0
Lower area of the Delta
19
39.6
Totals
48
100.0
Table 2 also shows that the middle parts of the Okavango Delta have a higher
number of accommodation establishments, followed by the lower parts of the
Okavango Delta. Thus, changes in flooding caused by climate variation or change in
climate is bound to have a higher impact on accommodation establishments located
in the middle and lower parts of the Okavango Delta.
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3.2
Type of Market and Services Provided
There are different tourists segments that visit the Okavango Delta each year. These
tourists segments are categorised based on the level of expenditure they have during
their visit to the Okavango Delta. In this survey, the different types of businesses are
categorised into three based on the income level of visitors to these establishments.
The categories are: up-market, middle market and lower market tourists. Table 3
shows the percentage of businesses services of particular tourist segments.
Table 3: Tourist Segments
Type of Business
Frequency
Percentage
Upper Market
24
50.0
Middle Market
14
29.2
Lower market
10
20.5
Totals
48
100.0
Table 3 shows that 24 or 50.0% of the managers of establishments interviewed
noted that they provide services for up-market tourists, 29.2% for middle market,
while 20.5% provide services for the lower tourists market. Services provided by
tourists provided can also be caterigorised into water based tourism activities, land
based tourism activities or both, while the last category is that of hotels which provide
services to anyone who cares to lodge with them despite the income level they
happen to fall into (Table 4).
Table 4:Specialisation of Tourism Business
Specialisation of Business
Frequency Percentage
Waterbased tourism activities
7
14.6
Landbased tourism activities
18
37.5
Both water and land activities
19
39.6
Offers accommodation to everyone
4
8.3
Totals
48
100.0
Results in Table 4 show that almost all the accommodation facilities except for the
last category (4 or 8.3%), are depended on flooding patterns in the Okavango River
Delta. This means that the availability of land-based or water-based tourism activities
in the Okavango Delta will largely depend on flooding patterns of the Okavango
River. As a result, changes in flooding caused by climatic variation will affect the
tourism business either positively or negatively depending on location of the facility.
3.5
Size of Accommodation Establishments
In an attempt to control negative environmental impacts caused by tourism
development, the Botswana Government allocates accommodation establishments in
different sites in the Okavango Delta based on the number of beds allowed per night.
The Government assumes that the number of tourists, tourism activities and facilities
in different sites of the Okavango Delta can be maintained within the carrying
capacity of the different sites as determined by the number of available beds per
accommodation establishment. The number of beds in a particular zone is thus
perceived by the Botswana Government as a tool to control the negative
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
environmental impacts caused by tourism in the wetland. Table 5 below shows the
number of beds available in the different parts of the Okavango Delta.
Table 5: The Number of Beds Available
Size of Accommodation Facility
Frequency
Percentage
Large (more than 30 beds)
8
16.7
Medium (2030 beds)
10
20.8
Small (up to 20 beds)
30
62.5
Totals
48
100.0
Table 5 shows that the majority (83.3%) of the accommodation establishments in the
Okavango Delta have the 30 or less beds per establishment. Only 8 or 16.7% of the
establishments have more than 30 beds. These are facilities that are likely to be in
the lower parts of the Okavango Delta especially hotels and lodges in Maun.
3.6
High Level-High Volume Flooding
Respondents were asked to state how their business turnover would be affected by
flooding in the event that the frequently flooded parts of their area where their lodge
happen to be located becomes permanently flooded with the occasionally flooded
parts in their area becoming frequently flooded, and the rarely flooded parts in their
area becoming occasionally flooded. Results on how turnover will be affected by high
floods are shown in Table 6 below.
Table 6: High Level High Volume Flooding
Description of Turn Over
Frequency
Percentage
Turnover will go UP
8
16.7
Turnover will go DOWN
27
56.2
Nothing will change
13
27.1
Totals
48
100.0
Table 6 shows that 56.2% of the respondents noted that their turnover will go down
in the event of flooding levels going high. When asked about the extent at which
turnover will go down, 29.2% of the respondents said it will go down by 25%, 20.8%
said it will go down by 50%, while 4.2% said it will go down by 100%. Some of the
comments which respondents made as reasons why they assume their businesses
will go down include the following: during high flooding roads become damaged,
making access to tourism facilities and areas difficult; game viewing and bird
watching becomes difficult because the damaged roads and a lack of concentration
of bird species in particular areas as is the case when there is no flooding; and,
tourists cancel their bookings because of the fear of increased incidence of diseases
such as malaria and the risk associated with being killed by floods. Most of the
facilities located in the middle and upper parts of the Okavango Delta are those that
will have a low turnover due high floods. On a similar note tourism facilities like
hotels in Maun and those situated far away from channels seem to have lower
probability of being affected by high flooding levels in the Okavango Delta Infact,
45.8% of the respondents noted that turnover in their establishments will not be
affected.
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
3.7
Low Level-Low Volume Flooding (main channels and ledibas
remain permanent)
Responds were also asked to make speculations of their turnover in the event that
flooding levels are low (low level - low volume flooding). Responded were
specifically asked to indicated the extent to which their business turnover would
change in the event that the permanently flooded parts of their area become only
frequently flooded, the frequently flooded parts of their area become only
occasionally flooded and the occasionally flooded parts of their area become only
rarely flooded and main channels and ledibas remain permanent. Results on the
extent at which turnover will be affected by low flooding patterns in the Okavango
Delta are shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Low Level Low Volume Flooding
Description of Turn Over
Frequency
Percentage
Turnover will go UP
20
41.7
Turnover will go DOWN
9
18.8
Nothing will change
19
39.6
Totals
48
100.0
Results in Table 7 shows that majority (41.7%) of respondents noted that the
turnover will go up; 18.8% said it will go down, while 39.6% said there will be no
change. Results further show that for those who noted that their turn over will go up,
31.2% said it will go up by 25%; 4.2% said it will go up by 50% while 6.2% said it will
go up by 100%.
3.8
Low Level-Low Volume Flooding (only deeper channels and
ledibas remain)
Under this scenario respondents were asked to assume that flooding patterns in the
Delta become low such that only deeper main channels and ledibas remain
permanent while the rest of the areas become seasonal. Specifically, respondents
were asked to indicate the extent of the change in business turnover under the low
level of flooding where the permanently flooded parts of their area become only
occasionally flooded, the frequently flooded parts of their area become only rarely
flooded and the rarely flooded parts of their area become never flooded. In this
scenario, only the deeper main channels and ledibas remain permanent while the
rest become seasonal only. Table 8 shows the results.
Table 8: Low Level Low Volume Flooding
Description of Turn Over
Frequency
Percentage
Turnover will go UP
14
29.2
Turnover will go DOWN
14
29.2
Nothing will change
20
41.7
Totals
48
100.0
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
As shown in Table 8, an equal number of respondents (29.2%) said that the turnover
will go down and up, respectively. For respondents who noted that their turnover will
go up, 25% noted that their turnover will go up by 25%, while only 4.2% said it will go
up by 100%. Respondents who noted that their turnover will go down, 25% noted
that their turnover will go down by 25% while only 4.2% said it will go down by 100%.
These respondents made the following comments regarding the changes of their
turnover: the reduction of floods will lead to a reduction in water based activities;
without water, some channels cannot be accessible; it will be hard to find game or
wildlife for viewing since it will migrate to far away areas from our lodge; and some of
our camps might become seasonal. A total of 41.7% of the respondents noted that
there will be no change in their turnover.
3.9
Low Level-Low Flooding (main channels and ledibas are seasonal
and dry)
Respondents were asked to state how their turnover would change if flooding levels
become low such that the main channels and ledibas become seasonal and dry.
Respondents were specifically asked to assume that flooding levels are low to the
extent that the permanently flooded parts of their area become only rarely flooded,
and frequently occasionally or rarely flooded parts of their area become never
flooded. The main channels and ledibas become seasonal and dry for much of the
year. Responses based on this scenario are shown in Table 9.
Table 9: Low Level Low Volume Flooding
Description of Turn Over
Frequency
Percentage
Turnover will go UP
16
33.3
Turnover will go DOWN
18
37.5
Nothing will change
14
29.2
Totals
48
100.0
Results in Table 9 show that 33.3% of the respondents noted that turnover will go up,
the majority (37.5%) said it will go down and 29.2% said nothing will change. For
those who said turnover will go down, 10.4% said it will go down by 25%, 25.0% said
it will go down by 50%, while 4.2% will go down by 100%. Respondents noted that
turnover will go down because of following: game will migrate to water fed points;
water and land activities will become inaccessible; the environment will become
dusty and clients may resort to other options; and, substitute mokoro for boats then
run the camp seasonally or close down.
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3.10 Low Level-Low Volume Flooding (no flooding at all, boreholes
drilled)
Finally, respondents were asked to state how their turnover would change in the
event that there is no flooding such that boreholes would have to be drilled for the
supply of water. That is, the low volume flooding to the extent that no flooding takes
place in their area, and groundwater has to be tapped to provide water points for
game and to supply the camp. Results on how turnover is perceived to change under
low volume flooding are shown in Table 10.
Table 10: Low Level Low Volume Flooding
Description of Turn Over
Frequency
Percentage
Turnover will go UP
16
33.3
Turnover will go DOWN
28
58.3
Nothing will change
4
8.3
Totals
48
100.0
Results in Table 10 shows that the majority (58.3%) of respondents noted that
turnover will go down, 33.30% said it will go up while 8.3% said there will be no
change. For those who said it will go down, 2.1% said it will go down by 25%, about
25% of the respondents said it will go down by 50% and 10.4% said it will go down
by 100.0%. Respondents noted that turnover will go down because of the following
factors: lack of water will affect water based activities; game will migrate to other
areas; most water and land based activities cannot be carried out if there is no water.
3.11 Adaptations
Strategies
Changes in flooding patterns will result in a fall in turnover in many accommodation
establishments. Some of the managers made suggestions on how they can adapt to
such changes, these include the following:
· When flooding decreases, operators should shift from water based tourism
activities to land based activities.
· Increasing marketing and advertisement of tourism in the Okavango Delta to
include land activities with less focus on water activities to avoid failure when
floods fall.
· In dry periods, drill and increase water points in the form of boreholes. Where
possible, pump water from permanent sites to drier areas and have water
points for watering of wildlife.
· During years of high floods, operators should move away from flooding areas
to relocate in non-flooded areas and different product available in the new site
should be marketed.
· In dry periods, water should be supplied to the camp/lodge through the
means of large water containers.
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3.12 General
Comments
Having been made aware of climate change effects on the flooding patterns of the
Okavango River Delta and the resultant changes in turnover of tourism businesses,
respondents in this survey made a few general comments about these changes as
follows:
· Location of a tourism business is important since most tourists who come to
the Okavango Delta like to view game and water. As a result, reduction in
floods in the Okavango Delta will make some of the tourists loose interest in
coming and this will affect turnover in many businesses.
· An increase in floods in the Okavango Delta may result in channels such as
Savuti which dried many years ago to flow once more. In the event that this
happens, new tourism businesses in that area can be opened up.
· High floods can also result in water flowing to areas such as Tsodilo Hills
which are some of the important cultural sites in the Okavango Delta. These
areas are currently having many visitors, and with increase of water in these
areas, their tourism potential will be increased as more tourists will begin to
visit these areas.
· Since bookings could get cancelled due to high floods, high floods could be
viewed as not good for tourism related business.
· During low floods, birds return to their areas of concentration, and fishing
becomes more prolific. Hippos and crocodiles become visible all year round,
this is good business for tourism.
· If there is no water, there is no reason for tourists to come to the Okavango
Delta.
· High floods may increase our expenditure (e.g. transport and utilities).
· During high floods some of the areas cannot be accessible and low floods
can make the vegetation to become not attractive.
· The socio-economic status of the people living around the flooded areas is
affected. Low turnover in tourism businesses due to flooding may result in no
jobs and income for local people and this will affect their wellbeing.
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4.
Analysis of Results
Results in this survey focused on five main scenarios in assessing the impact of
climate change on tourism activities and their economic benefits in the Okavango
Delta, Botswana. This was carried out through an assessment of the perceptions of
lodge managers/or tour operators on how their tourism operations and outputs would
be affected by changes in flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. As a result,
this analysis is largely based on the perceptions of tourism operators on the level of
flooding in the Okavango Delta. This descriptive approach on its own is not sufficient
to make appropriate decisions in the management of the Okavango Delta. However,
modelling these perceptions may yield better results and analysis.
Results in this survey indicate that the majority of the accommodation facilities that
will be affected by change in flooding patterns are located in the middle parts of the
Okavango Delta. These are facilities with which have up to 20 beds per night. Most
of these facilities offer both land and water-based tourism activities. As a result, if
there is need for mitigation measures to be taken, tourism operations in the middle
parts of the Okavango Delta will need to brought on board.
Results indicate that High Level - High Volume flooding where the frequently flooded
parts of their area become permanently flooded, the occasionally flooded parts in
their area become frequently flooded and the rarely flooded parts in their area
become occasionally flooded will affect the tourism turnover in the Okavango Delta.
That is, turnover will go down. Factors which operators noted to this problem include
the fact that when floods are high, roads become damaged and access to tourism
facilities become difficult; game viewing and bird watching becomes difficult becomes
of the roads, game also becomes scarce due to the lack of concentration of these
species in particular areas as is the case when flooding is not a problem. Operators
noted that when all these happen, tourists cancel their bookings because of the fear
of problems of diseases such as malaria and partly because they do not want to be
killed by floods. Results indicate that most of the facilities located in the middle and
upper parts of the Okavango Delta are mostly those that will have a low turnover due
high floods.
Based on the perceptions of tourism operators, high-level-high flooding is not a
desirable phenomenon for the tourism industry. The issue of turnover going down
can be illustrated by flooding patterns which took place in the Okavango Delta in
2000. Flooding in the Okavango Delta in 2000 resulted in the closure of Moremi
Game Reserve (located within the inner parts of the Delta) for eight months because
roads were impassable (Mbaiwa, 2005). During this period, there was a decline in
self-drive tourists in the Okavango Delta and tourism revenue went down. The results
of flooding in the Okavango Delta at this time resulted in retrenchments of workers in
the Okavango Delta since turnover was low in most accommodation establishments.
A similar scenario is likely to happen in the event of high flooding patterns in the
Okavango Delta. Retrenchments suggest that income and livelihoods for most
people working in tourism businesses in the Okavango Delta will suffer.
Results in this survey also indicate that turnover would also go down drastically in
Low level-Low Volume flooding scenario. In this scenario, its so dry such that there is
no flooding and boreholes have to be drilled to get water. This scenario indicates a
very dry period where groundwater has to be tapped to provide water points for
game and to supply the camp. In scenario, operators noted that turnover will be
greatly be reduced more than in the High Level-High Flood scenario. Operators that
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
turnover will go down because the lack of water will affect water based activities;
game will migrate to other factors; and, most water and land based activities cannot
be done if there is no water. In this regard both land-based and water-based
activities will be affected. This again was is an undesirable scenario for tourism
operators. As is the case with the High Level High Flooding scenario,
retrenchments will be carried out and livelihoods of workers will be affected. Studies
in desiccation of the western parts of the Okavango Delta (i.e. by Kgathi et al, 2004)
have shown that dryness definitely affects many economic activities of which tourism
is one of the factors. Tourists who visit the Okavango Delta come mainly to enjoy the
wilderness nature and scenic beauty of the wetland. As a result, a very dry
environment is likely to be unattractive to tourists hence the tourism industry under
these conditions can collapse.
The favoured scenario appears to be the Low Level-Low Volume Flooding. This is a
scenario where the permanently flooded parts of the Delta become only frequently
flooded, the frequently flooded parts of their area become only occasionally flooded
and the occasionally flooded parts of their area become only rarely flooded and main
channels and ledibas remain permanent. This scenario appears to be the "ok" and
desired scenario in that it is in this scenario that most operators noted that their
turnover will go up. This therefore shows that tourism in the Okavango Delta will do
well where there is permanent water in channels and lagoons to allow for both water-
based and land-based activities. It is in this scenario where income generation and
employment opportunities are likely to be high. In this regard, government and local
communities working in the tourism industry are likely to benefit more in terms of
revenue generation and employment opportunities.
Adaptation strategies are necessary in the changing patterns of floods in the
Okavango Delta. As a result, different operators suggested different adaptations
since their turnover will be affected differently based on the location of their business.
Operators therefore suggested a number of adaptation strategies. These include the
following: When flood patterns go down, operators should shift from water based
tourism activities to land based activities; during flooding years, operators should
move away from flooding areas to those which are not flooded and market a different
product available in the new site; in dry periods, drill and increase water points in the
form of boreholes. Where possible, pump water from permanent sites to drier areas
and have water points for watering of wildlife; and in dry periods, supply water to the
camp/lodge through the means of large water containers. Adaptation strategies for
different shocks to livelihoods have been studied in the Okavango Delta (e.g. by
Kgathi et al, 2004). However, nothing has so far been studied in tourism. This,
therefore suggest that adaptation strategies in the event of high level-high volume
floods or low level low volume flooding patterns which seem to affect turnover and
the tourism industry drastically should be the subject of future tourism research.
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
5. Conclusion
In this survey change in flood patterns in the Okavango Delta was perceived to have
positive and negative impacts on turnover in the various tourism businesses. Positive
impacts of high flooding were reported mainly by those managers whose businesses
are located relatively far away from flowing channels. These are establishments
whose nearby channels are rather seasonal or have dried in the past year. The
assumption by managers in these facilities is that an increase in floods would result
in their channels having more water hence attract wildlife and tourists to their areas.
High floods were also reported to have a negative impact on turnover, because they
make tourism areas to be inaccessible with a possibility of close-down of the affected
tourist facilities. Mangers noted that tourist cancel their bookings during flooding. The
impacts of high flood are, thus, similar to those of low level low volume flooding such
that the area becomes dry to a point where boreholes are dug. Some of the
managers noted that if there is no water, there is no tourism as tourists come to view
the water and game. During a spell of dry period, game migrates from areas without
water to areas where there is water.
In the event that there is no tourism (i.e. during high level- high volume or low level-
low volume scenarios), it is not only turnover that is going to be affected, livelihoods
in the Okavango Delta will also be affected. This is because the backbone of the
economy in the Okavango region is tourism, as such, if tourism goes down, many
people will loose their jobs and this will affect households.
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
6. References
Ashton, P.J., Nordin, L. and Alonso. L.E. (2003), Introduction to the Okavango Delta
and the AquaRap Expedition, In: Alonso. L.E. and Nordin, L (eds), A Rapid
Biological Assessment of the Aquatic Ecosystems of the Okavango Delta,
Botswana: High Water Survey (pp. 29-37). RAP Bulletin of Biological
Assessment No. 27. Conservation International, Washington.
Central Statistic Office, CSO (2002). National Population and Housing Census.
Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, Gaborone.
Gumbricht, T. & McCarthy, T.S (2002). Hirarchical Processes and Patterns
Sustaining the Okavango Delta: An Integrated Perspective for Policy and
Management. In: Bernard, T., Mosepele, K. & Ramberg, L. (Eds.),
Environmental Monitoring of Tropical Wetlands, Proceedings of a Conference
in Maun, Botswana, December 4-8, 2002. Published by Harry Oppenheimer
Okavango Research Centre of the University of Botswana and H.T. Odum
Centre for Wetlands of the University of Florida, pp.181-196.
Kgathi, D.L. Bendsen, H., BLaikie, P., Mbaiwa, J., Ngwenya, B.N., and Wilk, J.
(2004). Rural livelihoods, indigenous knowledge systems and political
economy of access to natural resources in the Okavango Delra, Botswana,
HOORC, Maun.
Mbaiwa, J.E. (2005). Wildlife Resource Utilisation at Moremi Game Reserve and
Khwai Community Area in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Journal of
Environmental Management, 77(2): 144-156.
North West District Council-NWDC., 2003. District Development Plan Six 2003/4-
2008/9. NWDC, Maun.
Okavango Delta Management Plan (2006). Department of Environmental Affairs,
Ministry of Environment, Wildlife and Tourism
Tlou, T. (1985). A history of Ngamiland 1750-1906. Macmillan Botswana Publishing
Company, Gaborone.
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
The Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis Technical Reports
I
Diagnostic Analysis to establish a base of available
n 1994, the three riparian countries of the Okavango
scientific evidence to guide future decision making.
River Basin Angola, Botswana and Namibia agreed
The study, created from inputs from multi-disciplinary
to plan for collaborative management of the natural
teams in each country, with specialists in hydrology,
resources of the Okavango, forming the Permanent
hydraulics, channel form, water quality, vegetation,
Okavango River Basin Water Commission (OKACOM).
aquatic invertebrates, fish, birds, river-dependent
In 2003, with funding from the Global Environment
terrestrial wildlife, resource economics and socio-
Facility, OKACOM launched the Environmental
cultural issues, was coordinated and managed by a
Protection and Sustainable Management of the
group of specialists from the southern African region
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO) Project to coordinate
in 2008 and 2009.
development and to anticipate and address threats to
the river and the associated communities and
The following specialist technical reports were
environment. Implemented by the United Nations
produced as part of this process and form
Development Program and executed by the United
substantive background content for the Okavango
Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, the project
River Basin Trans-boundary Diagnostic Analysis
produced the Transboundary.
Final Study
Reports integrating findings from all country and background reports, and covering the entire
Reports
basin.
Aylward, B.
Economic Valuation of Basin Resources: Final Report to
EPSMO Project of the UN Food & Agriculture Organization as
an Input to the Okavango River Basin Transboundary
Diagnostic Analysis
Barnes, J. et al.
Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis:
Socio-Economic Assessment Final Report
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Project
C.A.
Initiation Report (Report No: 01/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment EFA
C.A.
Process Report (Report No: 02/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Guidelines for Data Collection, Analysis and Scenario Creation
(Report No: 03/2009)
Bethune,
S.
Mazvimavi,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
D. and Quintino, M.
Delineation Report (Report No: 04/2009)
Beuster, H.
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Hydrology Report: Data And Models(Report No: 05/2009)
Beuster,
H. Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Scenario Report : Hydrology (Report No: 06/2009)
Jones, M.J.
The Groundwater Hydrology of The Okavango Basin (FAO
Internal Report, April 2010)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 1
of 4)(Report No. 07/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions (Volume 2
of 4: Indicator results) (Report No. 07/2009)
King, J.M. and Brown,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
C.A.
Scenario Report: Ecological and Social Predictions: Climate
Change Scenarios (Volume 3 of 4) (Report No. 07/2009)
King, J., Brown, C.A.,
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment
Joubert, A.R. and
Scenario Report: Biophysical Predictions (Volume 4 of 4:
Barnes, J.
Climate Change Indicator Results) (Report No: 07/2009)
King, J., Brown, C.A.
Okavango River Basin Environmental Flow Assessment Project
and Barnes, J.
Final Report (Report No: 08/2009)
Malzbender, D.
Environmental Protection And Sustainable Management Of The
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO): Governance Review
Vanderpost, C. and
Database and GIS design for an expanded Okavango Basin
Dhliwayo, M.
Information System (OBIS)
Veríssimo, Luis
GIS Database for the Environment Protection and Sustainable
Management of the Okavango River Basin Project
Wolski,
P.
Assessment of hydrological effects of climate change in the
Okavango Basin
Country Reports
Angola
Andrade e Sousa,
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
21
TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
Biophysical Series
Helder André de
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Sedimentologia &
Geomorfologia
Gomes, Amândio
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Vegetação
Gomes,
Amândio
Análise Técnica, Biofísica e Socio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango: Relatório
Final:Vegetação da Parte Angolana da Bacia Hidrográfica Do
Rio Cubango
Livramento, Filomena
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina:Macroinvertebrados
Miguel, Gabriel Luís
Análise Técnica, Biofísica E Sócio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango:
Subsídio Para o Conhecimento Hidrogeológico
Relatório de Hidrogeologia
Morais, Miguel
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Análise Rio
Cubango (Okavango): Módulo da Avaliação do Caudal
Ambiental: Relatório do Especialista País: Angola Disciplina:
Ictiofauna
Morais,
Miguel
Análise Técnica, Biófisica e Sócio-Económica do Lado
Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio Cubango: Relatório
Final: Peixes e Pesca Fluvial da Bacia do Okavango em Angola
Pereira, Maria João
Qualidade da Água, no Lado Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica
do Rio Cubango
Santos,
Carmen
Ivelize
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Van-Dúnem S. N.
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório de
Especialidade: Angola: Vida Selvagem
Santos, Carmen Ivelize
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Van-Dúnem S.N.
Okavango:Módulo Avaliação do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório de
Especialidade: Angola: Aves
Botswana Bonyongo, M.C.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Wildlife
Hancock, P.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module : Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Birds
Mosepele,
K. Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Fish
Mosepele, B. and
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Dallas, Helen
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Botswana: Discipline: Aquatic Macro Invertebrates
Namibia
Collin Christian &
Okavango River Basin: Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis
Associates CC
Project: Environmental Flow Assessment Module:
Geomorphology
Curtis, B.A.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report Country:
Namibia Discipline: Vegetation
Bethune, S.
Environmental Protection and Sustainable Management of the
Okavango River Basin (EPSMO): Transboundary Diagnostic
Analysis: Basin Ecosystems Report
Nakanwe, S.N.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia: Discipline: Aquatic Macro Invertebrates
Paxton,
M. Okavango River Basin Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist
Report:Country:Namibia: Discipline: Birds (Avifauna)
Roberts, K.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia: Discipline: Wildlife
Waal,
B.V. Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report: Country:
Namibia:Discipline: Fish Life
Country Reports
Angola
Gomes, Joaquim
Análise Técnica dos Aspectos Relacionados com o Potencial
Socioeconomic
Duarte
de Irrigação no Lado Angolano da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio
Series
Cubango: Relatório Final
Mendelsohn,
.J.
Land use in Kavango: Past, Present and Future
Pereira, Maria João
Análise Diagnóstica Transfronteiriça da Bacia do Rio
Okavango: Módulo do Caudal Ambiental: Relatório do
Especialista: País: Angola: Disciplina: Qualidade da Água
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
Saraiva, Rute et al.
Diagnóstico Transfronteiriço Bacia do Okavango: Análise
Socioeconómica Angola
Botswana Chimbari, M. and
Okavango River Basin Trans-Boundary Diagnostic Assessment
Magole, Lapologang
(TDA): Botswana Component: Partial Report: Key Public Health
Issues in the Okavango Basin, Botswana
Magole,
Lapologang
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Land Use Planning
Magole, Lapologang
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis (TDA) of the Botswana p
Portion of the Okavango River Basin: Stakeholder Involvement
in the ODMP and its Relevance to the TDA Process
Masamba,
W.R.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Output 4: Water Supply and
Sanitation
Masamba,W.R.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Botswana Portion of
the Okavango River Basin: Irrigation Development
Mbaiwa.J.E. Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the Okavango River
Basin: the Status of Tourism Development in the Okavango
Delta: Botswana
Mbaiwa.J.E. &
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Tourism Activities
Mmopelwa, G.
and their Economic Benefits in the Okavango Delta
Mmopelwa,
G.
Okavango River Basin Trans-boundary Diagnostic Assessment:
Botswana Component: Output 5: Socio-Economic Profile
Ngwenya, B.N.
Final Report: A Socio-Economic Profile of River Resources and
HIV and AIDS in the Okavango Basin: Botswana
Vanderpost,
C.
Assessment of Existing Social Services and Projected Growth
in the Context of the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis of the
Botswana Portion of the Okavango River Basin
Namibia
Barnes, J and
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Wamunyima, D
Environmental Flow Module: Specialist Report:
Country: Namibia: Discipline: Socio-economics
Collin Christian &
Technical Report on Hydro-electric Power Development in the
Associates CC
Namibian Section of the Okavango River Basin
Liebenberg, J.P.
Technical Report on Irrigation Development in the Namibia
Section of the Okavango River Basin
Ortmann, Cynthia L.
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis:
Environmental Flow Module : Specialist Report Country:
Namibia: discipline: Water Quality
Nashipili,
Okavango River Basin Technical Diagnostic Analysis: Specialist
Ndinomwaameni
Report: Country: Namibia: Discipline: Water Supply and
Sanitation
Paxton,
C.
Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis: Specialist Report:
Discipline: Water Quality Requirements For Human Health in
the Okavango River Basin: Country: Namibia
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TDA Botswana Climate and Tourism
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