UNDP/GEF PROJECT ENTITLED "REDUCING ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS IN THE
YELLOW SEA LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEM"

UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
Date: 19 November 2007
English only


Fourth Meeting of the Regional Scientific and Technical Panel
for the UNDP/GEF Yellow Sea Project
Guangzhou, China, 26-28 November 2007













REPORT FROM CHAIRPERSON OF
THE ECOSYSTEM REGIONAL WORKING GROUP (RWGE)

Nov 2007
Sinjae Yoo

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
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1. Introduction

After TDA had been completed, RWG-E's (Ecosystem Regional Working Group) remaining
tasks would be assisting the preparation of SAP and demonstration projects. In addition to
these, conducting surveys and developing techniques to obtain updated information on the
ecosystem status are important tasks of RWG-E. Such include CPR (Continuous Plankton
Recorder) surveys and Ocean Color Algorithm Development. Here, RWG-E's efforts in 2007
and future plans are briefly described. Also some recommendations are made to RSTP and
PSC.


2. Past Activities

2.1. CPR
survey

FIO conducted Nv-shuttle surveys in April 2007. The purpose of the survey was to
demonstrate the utility of underwater towed body in making continuous observation revealing
small scale structure in temperature, salinity, DO, pH, fluorescence, and phytoplankton &
zooplankton abundance. FIO data clearly indicated that different structure existed across
124E in biological as well as hydrographical features. While the surveys successfully
demonstrated the use of CPR, the survey covered only small segments to reveal more
meaningful scientific information. During RWG-E discussion, consensus was that surveying
several times a year in specific seasons and/or areas of scientific meaning is necessary for
this to be useful. To demonstrate the usefulness of CPR fully, a better planned survey
should be conducted with specific scientific questions.


2.2. Regional Ocean Color Algorithm Development

One of the obstacles in assessment of the status of the Yellow Sea ecosystem is lack of
proper estimates of primary productivity in basin-scale. Primary productivity (PP) is one of
the fundamental ecosystem properties concerning provisioning, and supporting/regulating
services. Satellite observation has been established as a world-wide monitoring method of
primary productivity. However, applying satellite observation to the Yellow Sea ecosystem is
limited due to technical problems. To resolve the uncertainty in the base property of the food
web, we have to resort to satellite technology, but for this, two problems have to be solved:
1) retrieval of chlorophyll-a from satellite data; and 2) estimation of depth-integrated daily
primary production given the data of surface chlorophyll-a, PAR, turbidity, SST, etc. In this
context, there is a need for two activities on developing an algorithm for chlorophyll retrieval
and also for primary production.

To solve the first of the two problems, YSLME is sponsoring a China-Japan-Korea co-
operative research on developing ocean color algorithm. This study group, called YOC
(Yellow Sea Ocean Color), consists of six scientists who contributed bio-optic data covering
the Yellow Sea and East China Sea. Two workshops were held, one in June and one in
September 2007. Progresses have been made in setting up a common database, identifying
missing data, and methods of analysis. The database is remarkably good in coverage and
amount as the following map indicates.

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
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The data coverage of YOC ocean color database


2.3. First Yellow Sea Regional Science Conference

RWG-E contributed nine papers to the conference. From the conference, some of the new
findings and questions were raised. Among these the topics relevant to RWG-E group are:

· Is the Cold Water Mass shrinking and warming? Then how will the ecosystem be
affected by the changes in the water mass, benthic communities in particular?
· How the climate change will affect the circulation pattern, upwelling & downwelling, and
stratification strength?
· How Yellow Sea Warm Current will change?

· Test the hypotheses on the structural changes and energy flows in the lower trophic
level ecosystem.
· Monitor the distribution and population dynamics of Jellyfish in YS and their migration
to the East Sea/Japan Sea.
· Identify controlling factors of food web interaction

· Conduct and continue intercomparison and harmonize methodologies
· Ship Monitoring with more frequent samplings rather than annual broad-scale
sampling
· Expand monitoring network with new platforms such as ferries
· On-going development of ocean color algorithm will enhance the utility of satellite
data.

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
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Some of these questions and issues need to be incorporated into SAP.


3. Preparatory Works for SAP

3.1. Clarification of the regional targets

The viewpoint of RWG-E is rather different from others in relation with SAP. Unlike other
working groups who deal with provisioning, regulating, or cultural services, RWG-E's
interests are more or less confined to supporting services. The implication is that RWG-E is
more concerned with management actions of indirect nature. Consequently, it is not
straightforward to relate the issues in terms of SAP.

There are two regional targets from Ecosystem working group and each of these targets are
reviewed whether they are relevant and precisely defined. The two targets are: 1)
assessment and prediction of ecosystem status; 2) reducing the frequency of HAB
outbreaks. Previous description of the first target, after reviewing several suggestions, has
been re-worded as, "better understanding and prediction of ecosystem changes for adaptive
management." The target on HABs also came under some discussion as to how to justify
and clarify it. After extensive discussion, it was agreed to revise the target to, "< 5 events
(late 1980s condition) (HAB includes high biomass algal bloom)."

3.2. Finalization of management actions

RWG-E also reviewed the management action table produced during the 2nd SAP Ad-hoc
Working Group Meeting, provided additional input to finalize the table, and reworded some
of the actions to make them clearer to all readers. There was some discussion on assessing
and monitoring the impacts of climate change, the institutional limitations related to this
action, and HABs. In the same token, technical feasibility of each of the management actions
were reviewed and re-worded. The management table has been completed.


4. Suggestions for potential demonstration activities.

Potential demonstration projects were discussed based on the selection criteria prepared at
the Ad-hoc SAP meeting. After group deliberations, following three projects were selected as
potential demonstration projects.

4.1. Monitor jellyfish bloom (Priority 1)

Motivation:
Recent outbreaks of jelly fish in the Northwestern Pacific is truly a transboundary problem in
that reproduction occurs in the Yellow Sea or East China Sea and medusa spread out to the
East Sea. An international co-operation is required for proper monitoring and mitigation of
jellyfish blooms.

Methods:
· summer co-operative cruise + additional monitoring
· ship of opportunities

Expected outputs:
· Origination, composition, propagation, transport route of jellyfish bloom
· Reviews of and recommendations for monitoring methodology

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4.2. Impacts of climate change on ecosystem (Priority 2)

Motivation:
There are many signs of global changes in regional scales. Certainly these changes will
continue in the coming decades and interacts with anthropogenic influences. Therefore, the
Yellow Sea ecosystem is anticipated to undergo severe changes in the future. Without
understanding and predicting the future changes, it will be difficult, if not impossible, to
properly manage the Yellow Sea ecosystem.

Methods:
· 2 co-operative cruises + additional monitoring
· Retrospective analysis (historical information)
· Remote sensing
· modeling

Expected outputs:
· Signal of climate change in Cold Water Mass (volume of water mass, intensity of
stratification, range and average temperature)
· Signal of climate change from plankton and benthos communities


4.3. Impact of N:P:Si ratio change on ecosystem (Priority 3)

Motivation:
Of the changes reported in the past decades, nutrient ratio change in the basin is best
documented and verified. However, the subsequent changes in the ecosystem are not
verified well. Further monitoring of a long-term trend in the nutrient ratio and its
consequences in the lower trophic level ecosystem should be studied.

Methods:
· 36 latitude
· 2 co-operative cruises + additional monitoring
· Measure nutrients, plankton (community structure and productivity)

Expected outputs:
· To assess the current status of long-term trend reported by Lin et al. (2005)
· To assess impact on ecosystem at lower trophic levels


5. Major Difficulties and Problems Encountered

As mentioned above, RWG-E's main task is to make proper assessment and prediction of
the ecosystem status. We have been frustrated by delay of basin-scale surveys. Since 1992
there has been no basin-scale survey and assessment. And we do not have clear picture on
the current state of the Yellow Sea ecosystem. As of now, we expect co-operative cruises to
happen in 2008. Although delayed, the cruises will provide important information on the
current status of the Yellow Sea ecosystem.

One of the problems in preparing for the cruises is lack of proper budget for benthos survey.
When the second stage of the YSLME was planned, benthos surveys did not receive much
attention and appropriate budget was not allocated. However, there are some reasons to
believe that benthos surveys are crucial in understanding the changes in the Yellow Sea
ecosystem. First, historical data collection indicates that for the past two decades, benthos
biomass has been steadily increased and mostly polycheates, in particular. This is
consistent with eutrophication trend observed in the pelagic ecosystems. The trend in the

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
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benthic communities has to be confirmed. Second, recent hydrological surveys showed that
the temperature in the Cold Water Mass has been increasing. With continuing warming in
the Cold Water Mass, a substantial change in the benthic community is anticipated. For
better scientific surveys to be made, additional budget allocation for benthic surveys is
desirable.


6. Work Plan for 2008

6.1. Writing of the guidelines of ecosystem monitoring SAP

There was no applicant for the consultant position to write the guidelines of ecosystem
monitoring in 2006. We found out that some of the potential consultants for this work were
not aware of the announcement of the work. We agreed to make a new announcement and
also make sure the candidates be notified of this new opportunity. The announcement has
been made as of November 2007.

6.2. Co-operative
cruises

The fundamental role of RWG-E is to provide relevant scientific information for adaptive
management. Such includes the current status and future projection of the Yellow Sea
ecosystem. This is important for management in the face of many forcing factors such as
global warming. Although we have collected historical data for the past decades, our current
knowledge falls short of making comprehensive and definite assessment on the state of the
Yellow Sea ecosystem. In this regard, a basin-scale ecosystem survey is crucial in laying a
baseline in ecosystem assessment. At this point, we expect two co-operative cruises will
happen, one in Jan and one in Aug 2008. Particularly, benthos surveys will provide important
clue to the ecosystem change in the Cold Water Mass (central region) of the Yellow Sea.


6.3. YOC
workshop

As mentioned in 2.2, an ocean color algorithm development activity has been going on since
Feb 2007. Through two workshops, a common bio-optic database has been set up and
preliminary analysis has been made. The third workshop will be held in Jan 2008 where the
first cut of regional chlorophyll algorithm will be made. Although FIO scientists are not
involved at this stage, one scientist will be invited as an observer to the third workshop. The
third workshop will issue an assessment and recommendation on a regional ocean color
algorithm. However, this should be considered as a beginning of continuing efforts for better
algorithm. This activity should be supported in the future. As FIO is conducting bio-optical
surveys in the Yellow Sea, we hope they will participate in the future activity.


6.4. Primary productivity estimation

Primary productivity of the Yellow Sea is important in two respects: 1) Potential biological
production, and 2) water quality issues. Among many approaches to estimate potential food
production, assessment and monitoring of primary productivity is crucial as they provide
information of energy input at the basis of the food web. This knowledge is important in the
face of changing climate in that variability in climate forcing and its effects on the ecosystem
as a whole should be estimated from the basis of the food web. The processes and factors
of primary production will also be used as a guideline for water quality management in
relation with nutrient budget and control. With the advent of remote sensing technology, we
have better assessment methods of basin-scale primary production or long-term changes in
the primary productivity in the Yellow Sea. However, there are still serious uncertainties in

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
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these results. First, the chlorophyll algorithm used is based on an empirical algorithm and
not validated at all. Second, our understanding is still limited in turbid regions (tidally mixed
areas of the YS) due to significant lack of field data and poorly-validated remote sensing
algorithms for chlorophyll retrieval and photosynthesis parameters. YOC activity mentioned
above will provide some breakthrough of the chlorophyll algorithm development. Using the
chlorophyll algorithm and new measurements of photosynthesis parameter in turbid waters,
an improved estimation of primary productivity of the Yellow Sea will be made in 2008.
Expected outputs include:

· Monthly maps of primary production of the whole Yellow Sea
· Annual map of primary production (at 9 km resolution)
· Interannual variability of primary production of the Yellow Sea



6.5. Budgetary
issues

As already mentioned in section 5, additional allocation of budget is needed for benthic
surveys. However, itemized details of required budget can be determined during the Cruise-
preparing technical meeting scheduled for Nov 22-23. The budget details as determined in
the meeting will be reported to RSTP.

7. Recommendations to RSTP and PSC

I. We ask additional budget allocation for successful benthos surveys in co-operative
cruises (see Section 5). The exact details will be reported based on the discussion of
Pre-cruise Technical meeting in Nov 22-23.

II. Although we are expecting new ocean color algorithms from the final YOC workshop
in Jan 2008, algorithm development should be continuously supported in the future.
This is important as more remote sensing developments are being made. This
activity will be one of the major technical developments from YSLME. The outputs
can be used in other coastal seas of the Northwestern Pacific such as the East China
Sea. Annual workshops where scientists from the region can discuss algorithm
development/validation can be supported by YSLME.

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
Page 8
Annex I. Ecosystem Component's Management Actions Table


Problems
"Problem
Regional
General
Analysis of Planned &
Demo
Ideal Management Action
Feasible Management Actions by 2020
identified
Issue"
target
action
On-going Management Actions
acts
Tech.
in CCA
(2020)
Feasi-
Remark
Insti-
Insti-
Institution-
Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative
bility

tutional
tutional
al
Ecosys-

better
Assess
harmonise
Establish
develop a
countries
no cross-
non-
harmonise
Establish
harmonise
4 existing
3
tem
understan
and
monitoring
cross-basin
regional
have different
basin
harmonised
monitoring
cross-basin
national
national
changes
ding and
monitor
methodolo-
monitoring
protocol for
sampling
monitor-
existing
methodolog
monitoring
protocol for
monitor-
(lower
prediction
the impact gies and
network &
marine
methods and
ing
national
ies and
network &
marine
ing net-
trophic
of ecosys-
of N/P/Si
assess
implement
survey &
timing;
network
protocol
assessment
implement
survey &
works
level and
tem
ratio
impacts
monitoring
monitoring;
regular
due to
between
of impacts
monitoring
monitoring;
benthos)
changes
change
activities
develop
surveys only
lack of co-
countries for
activities
develop
for
regional
cover limited
ordination
marine
regional
adaptive
framework to
area; not
among
survey &
framework
manage-
incorporate
designed to
different
monitoring
to
ment
the
reveal basin-
agencies
incorporate
assessment
scale
the
into
changes;
assessment
management
limited
into
policy
assessments
manageme
nt policy

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
Page 9
Problems
"Problem
Regional
General
Analysis of Planned &
Demo
Ideal Management Action
Feasible Management Actions by 2020
identified
Issue"
target
action
On-going Management Actions
acts
Tech.
in CCA
(2020)
Feasi-
Remark
Insti-
Insti-
Institution-
Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative
bility

tutional
tutional
al
Assess
develop
Establish
develop a
ditto no
basin-
non-
develop
Establish
harmonise
3 national
2
and
and/ or
basin-scale
regional
scale
harmonised
and/ or
basin-scale
national
moni-
monitor
harmonise
monitoring
protocol for
monitor-
existing
harmonise
monitoring
protocol for
toring
the impact monitoring
network &
marine
ring
national
monitoring
network &
marine
network
of climate
methodolog
implement
survey &
network
protocol
methodolog
implement
survey &
exists, but
change
ies and
monitoring
monitoring;
due to
between
ies and
monitoring
monitoring;
limited
assess
activities
develop
lack of co-
countries for
assessment
activities;
develop
geographi
impacts
regional
ordination
marine
of impacts
convince
regional
cal scope
framework to
among
survey &
relevant
framework
& vari-
incorporate
different
monitoring;
government
to
ables
the
agencies;
no regional
agencies to
incorporate
assessment
insuffi-
protocol
increase
the
into
cient
exists
investment
assessment
management
national
on
into
policy
pro-
taxonomical
manage-
grammes
research
ment policy
to train
and
support
taxono-
mists

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
Page 10

Problems
"Problem
Regional
General
Analysis of Planned &
Demo
Ideal Management Action
Feasible Management Actions by 2020
identified
Issue"
target
action
On-going Management Actions
acts
Tech.
in CCA
(2020)
Feasi-
Remark
Insti-
Insti-
Institution-
Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative
bility

tutional
tutional
al
Predict
develop
establish
develop
no compre-
no
no existing
develop
establish
develop
4 basic

ecosys-
compre-
regional
framework to
hensive, co-
regional
framework to
compre-
regional
framework
modelling
tem
hensive
science
incorporate
ordinated
body to
incorporate
hensive
science
to
tech-
change in
models to
committee
the prediction
modelling
co-
prediction
models to
committee
incorporate
nology
the long
predict
to co-
into
ordinate
into
predict
to co-
the
exist
run
ecosystem
ordinate
management
modelling
management
ecosystem
ordinate
prediction
change and
modelling
policy;
activities
policy
change and
modelling
into
its impact
activities
develop
its impact
activities
manage-
on fisheries
regional
on fisheries
ment policy
framework to
incorporate
the
assessment
into
management
policy
Monitor
develop
Establish
not relevant
no common
no intern-
not relevant
develop
Establish
not relevant
4 Kor -
1
the trans-
nat'l and
inter-
monitoring
ational
nat'l and
inter-
has
boundary
reg'l
national
metho-
monitor-
reg'l
national
monit-
impact of
monitoring
monitoring
dologies
ing
monitoring
monitoring
oring pro-
jellyfish
methodo-
network
network
metho-
network
grammes;
blooms
logies
dologies
CHN -
increasing
damage;
int'l
interest is
high

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
Page 11
Problems
"Problem
Regional
General
Analysis of Planned &
Demo
Ideal Management Action
Feasible Management Actions by 2020
identified
Issue"
target
action
On-going Management Actions
acts
Tech.
in CCA
(2020)
Feasi-
Remark
Insti-
Insti-
Institution-
Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative Technical
Legislative
bility

tutional
tutional
al
Monitor
improve
establish
develop
monitoring
no
no existing
improve
establish
develop
4 on-going
HAB
capability in
regional
regional
programmes
regional
regional
capability in
regional
regional
mon-
occur-
HAB
HAB
framework to
only at
HAB
framework to
HAB
HAB
framework
itoring
rences
monitoring,
committee
incorporate
national level
committee incorporate
monitoring
committee
to
network;
prediction
to co-
the
and scattered
assessment
and
to co-
incorporate
serious
and
ordinate
assessment
among
into
mitigation
ordinate
the
trans-
mitigation
assessment
into
responsible
management
assessment
assessment
boundary
activities
management
agencies
policy
activities
into
issue
policy
manage-
ment policy


establish
Refer to
Refer to
Refer to
Refer to
Refer to
Refer to
Refer to
Refer to
Refer to
4 DB
under
Yellow
RWG-I
RWG-I
RWG-I
RWG-I
RWG-I
RWG-I
RWG-I
RWG-I
RWG-I
construc-
Sea eco-
tion
system
database
Increased
See
< 5 events See
See
See
See Nitrogen
See Nitrogen
See
See Nitrogen
See
See
See
Refer
Refer

frequency
Nitrogen
(late
Nitrogen
Nitrogen
Nitrogen
enrichment
enrichment
Nitrogen
enrichment
Nitrogen
Nitrogen
Nitrogen
RWG-
RWG-P
of HABs
enrichme
1980s
enrichme
enrichment
enrichment
and eutro-
and eutro-
enrichme
and eutro-
enrichment
enrichment
enrichment
P
nt and
condition)
nt and
and eutro-
and eutro-
phication
phication
nt and
phication
and eutro-
and eutro-
and eutro-
eutroph-
(HAB
eutro-
phication
phication
eutro-
phication
phication
phication
ication
includes
phication
phication
high
biomass
algal
bloom)

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UNDP/GEF/YS/RSP.4/6b
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Annex II. ECOSYSTEM COMPONENT'S WORKPLAN FOR 2008

Au

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