June 2002
http://www.nioz.nl/loicz
No. 23
based" learning process for experts and
The use of scenarios in integra-
decision makers, and in its most
ted environmental assessment of
inclusionary form, other types of stake-
coastal-catchment zones:
holders, enabled via inter/multi/trans-
the Humber Estuary, U.K.
disciplinary research, using a toolbox of
complementary analytical methods and
L. Ledoux, R. Cave and R.K. Turner,
techniques.
CSERGE, School of Environmental
Sciences, University of East Anglia,
While it is important that the different
Norwich , UK.
contributing disciplines know something
about each other's methodology and
Introduction
approaches to scientific investigation, it
In the global context of coastal zone
is more significant that each contributor
management, policy responses at all
to IEA maximises their knowledge of the
levels of governance and society needs
policy/management context at issue
to become more adaptable to cope with
(Harremöes and Turner 2001) and
socio-economic and environmental
contributes to the dialogues that must
change, including sea level rise. The
This is the twenty-third
take place if IEAis to be socially relevant.
future will always be shrouded by
newsletter of the Land Ocean
uncertainty and therefore accurate Interactions in the Coastal Zone
Scenarios
prediction is not a feasible goal.
(LOICZ) International Project of
A scenario can be defined as a coherent,
However, it is possible to formulate
the IGBP. It is produced quarterly
internally consistent and plausible
scenarios, which can shed light on and
to provide news and information
description of a possible future state of
offer insights about possible future
regarding LOICZ activities
the world. It is not a forecast because it
developments. The information gene-
cannot assign probabilities to any
rated by such an approach can assist
particular outcome. Instead, scenarios
policy makers in searching for efficient, provide a consistent framework to portray images of how society and its
effective and equitable coping strategies evaluate potential policies to improve supporting environment could look like
and policy options for inte grated and water quality in the estuary.
given different sets of assumptions and
sustainable coastal zone management.
consequent conditions. The implicit
This paper investigates the use of sce- Integrated Environmental Assessment
rationale is to evolve better procedures
narios for integrated catchment/coastal (IEA)
for coping with future `surprises', by
zone management in the Humber IEA should adopt "a synoptic perspec- forcing analysts to think laterally and
Estuary, in the U.K. The context of this tive with two characteristics:
radically. Scenarios typically contain
ongoing research is the EuroCat project, (1) integrated assessment should have qualitative storylines augmented by
which aims to assist in integrating catch-
value added compared to single varying amounts of quantified data.
ment and coastal zone management by
disciplinary oriented assessment;
They can be informed by relevant
analysing the response of the coastal sea (2) integrated assessment should pro- history but not conditioned by it, except
to changes in fluxes of nutrients and
vide useful information to decision in the case of so-called baseline or
contaminants from the catchments. This
makers." (Rotmans et al. 1996)
`business as usual (BAU)'scenarios. The
article looks at principles of Integrated
latter can be utilised as benchmarks
Environmental Assessment, the use of IEA can be summarised as a continuous against which to portray other possible
scenarios, and how national scenarios "process" which is conditioned by a states of the world and are compiled with
can be adapted to the regional level to policy and/or management context and the aid of trend data. In practice,
focus on three possible futures for the is characterised by its cyclical nature scenarios will combine a range of
Humber. An overview is given of future with multiple feedback effects and features depending on their real world
research and how the scenarios can be requirements. It not only provides a application and the scale at which they
used to simulate future fluxes and conceptual framework, it is a "team- are pitched.
A CORE PROJECT OF THE
I
G
B
P
INTERNATIONAL GEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE PROGRAMME

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LOICZ NEWSLETTER
Scenarios may possess a variety of Industrial and agricultural development zones is in the past. However, a legacy
characteristics and can be deployed at over the last few hundred years have of contamination still exists in the
different spatial scales and across adversely impacted the quality of the sediments, and the loss of intertidal area
different temporal scales (typically from water entering the estuary from the (Figure 2) has reduced the filtering
10 years to 100 years). They can be used rivers. The principal industries impac- capacity of the estuary for nutrients,
to facilitate consensus, or negotiation, in ting on water management are coal which instead get exported directly to
situations where multiple competing mining, electricity generation, food the North Sea. It is estimated that up to
stakeholder interests are at issue; or at processing, steel and non-ferrous about 300 years ago, the Humber
least provide part of a more inclusionary metals, engineering, chemicals, textiles estuary acted as a sink for all the
process for decision-making.
and waste disposal.
riverine inputs of dissolved inorganic
They can be focussed on particular
nitrogen (DIN) and phosphorus (DIP),
policy objectives and/or instruments The macro-tidal Humber estuary is one and was a net importer of DIN and DIP
and provide sensitivity assessments. of the largest in the UK, with a maxi- from the North Sea. In the present-day
Finally, they can portray the conse- mum tidal length of 147 km from estuary, >95% of the DIN and >10% of
quences of policy strategies that Cromwell Weir on the Trent to the the DIP is exported to the Sea, due to an
incorporate radically different world- Humber's mouth, and maximum width order of magnitude reduction in the
views in a more visionary way. In this of 15 km, comparable with the Thames sedimentation within the estuary
context the `alternative' visions are and Severn Estuaries (Andrews et al. following the loss of intertidal area
most often reflected against a baseline 2000). The area surrounding the Hum- (Jickells et al. 2000), rather than simply
(BAU) trend scenario.
ber Estuary (Humberside) is mainly to the increase in inputs from anthro-
high quality agricultural land, with pogenic changes.
The Humber Estuary and Coastal
many thousands of hectares reclaimed
Zone
from the estuary over the last few
The Humber catchment covers an area centuries. As a result, it is estimated that
of ca. 24,240 km2, more than 20% of the over a third of a million people now live
land area of England. Its freshwater on areas of land below high spring tide
input is the largest of any British level. Approximately 570 km2 of land
Estuary to the N. Sea. The catchment would be flooded if the present exten-
comprises the drainage basins of the sive coastal defences were removed.
rivers Trent, Ouse, Ancholme and Hull, Humberside ports handle 17% of the
which drain into the inner and outer UK's sea-borne trade, Grimsby
estuary, respectively (Figure 1).
Immingham being now the largest port
complex in the UK. In spite of exten- Figure 2. The modern Humber Estu-
sive reclamation and coastal squeeze ary. The black area indicates present-
over several centuries, large areas of day intertidal area, the light grey area
intertidal and coastal wetland habitat represents original intertidal area
still exist in the estuary, supporting (ca. 3000-300 years ago), prior to any
year-round bird populations, as well as reclamation; this area is currently
migratory species and winter residents. below the level of high water spring
The outer estuary is an important fish tides and is protected by coastal defen-
nursery area for North Sea plaice. Much ces (modified from Andrews et al. 2000).
of the Humber is designated under the
Habitats Directive, and the entire
Estuary has been proposed as a marine Integrated Assessment, Scenarios
Special Area of Conservation, in and the Humber
recognition of its importance to nature To help reduce uncertainty and aid
conservation.
decision-making, it is useful to focus on
distinct and radically different possible
The Humber case study represents a futures for the Humber. Feasible
good example of what can be called a scenarios for the Humber were adapted
Figure 1. Humber Catchment
"mature" environmental problem. Over from existing scenarios pitched at the
(adapted from Edwards et al., 1997)
the last few decades, as heavy industry national level and developed to cast
Inset map of England and Wales,
in the catchment has declined, and light on future social, economic and
showing the extent of the Humber
regulations on emissions and inputs to environmental trends for the UK over
catchment in grey.
controlled waters have become more the period 2000-2040 (OST 1999).
stringent, the water qualities of both
The Humber catchment is home to 20% catchment and estuary have improved. The OST national scenarios are framed
of the UK population, and a very The "peak" nutrient loading and metal by two orthogonal axes, representing
significant proportion of the energy, inputs to the Humber estuary from the societal values (ranging from con-
industrial and agricultural production. near-estuary and wider catchment sumerist, self-interested market-based

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LOICZ NEWSLETTER
preferences to collectivist and conserva- the Humber estuary, approx. 20 ha. In squeeze. This approach is close to the
tionist social preferences) and level of terms of flood defence around the idea of "mitigation banks" or "land
effective governance (from local to estuary, hard defences would be main- banks", whereby an extensive area of
global) respectively (Figure 3). These tained as far as possible, exacerbating habitats is recreated ahead of develop-
axes determine four futures, which, for the problem of coastal squeeze. Given ment or natural loss, and which could
simplicity's sake, appear as indepen- the commitment of the UK to imple- facilitate the implementation of the
dent possible states of world. In reality, ment the Habitats Directive, com- Habitats Directive (Ledoux et al. 2000).
the boundaries are fuzzy and the different pensation in the form of recreated In this scenario, there would be a net
states are differentiated because certain habitats would have to be provided, but increase in intertidal area of 1200 ha by
trends and characteristics become more one could assume that this would be on 2025, which would include compen-
or less dominant across government, the basis of minimum compliance. One sation for losses through coastal
business and public social contexts. would therefore expect a net loss of squeeze. Sewage treatment around the
World Markets, for example, is the habitats in this scenario. Water quality estuary is likely to be of moderate
equivalent of a baseline (almost trend) objectives are likely to include ex- standard, i.e. all sewage will receive
scenario. It is meant to portray conven- ceptions for a variety of polluting indus- secondary treatment prior to direct
tional industrial/international capitalism tries. The standard of sewage treatment is discharges, but there would be no ter-
continuing out into the foreseeable likely to be relatively low (up to recently, tiary treatment or phosphorus removal.
future. Sustainable development is inter- there was no treatment for the large, In agriculture, application of fertiliser
preted in its `weak sustainability' form direct sewage discharges in the tideway). per unit area will be reduced through
(Turner et al. 1998; Burbridge 2001). At the catchment level, agriculture is targeted policies, and will be timed to
This scenario is characterised by a likely to remain relatively intensive and reduce the runoff to rivers. Overall reduc-
requirement to maximise total output rely on technology (e.g. GM crops) to tion of the nutrient load from the catch-
(GDP), with widening income sustain high yields, leading to no net ment into the estuary would be approxi-
inequality. Environmental concerns are reduction in nitrate input to rivers. mately 50%, as foreseen by the OSPAR
important but constrained to `local' Contaminant concentrations would also convention and the various international
health and/or amenity concerns; inter- remain at their current level.
agreements on the North Sea. The current
national environmental agreements
water quality standards would be met at
GLOBALISATION
have relatively modest targets/standards.
WORLD
GLOBAL
all times for all contaminants.
governance
The Global Sustainability scenario,
MARKETS
SUSTAINABILITY
believes that environmental systems are
BAU
In the Deep Green scenario, environ-
PT
often of infinite value and are the
DG
values
mental protection is given maximum
foundations of a sustainable economic
CONSUMERISM
COMMUNITY/
CONSERVATION
priority. It corresponds loosely to a state
and social system, not vice versa.
PROVINCIAL
LOCAL
between the Global Sustainability and
ENTERPRISE
STEWARDSHIP
Resource use efficiency/ productivity
Local Stewardship national scenarios.
BAU = Business As Usual
can be radically improved via a mixture
PT = Policy Target
DG = Deep Green
This represents some environmental
LOCALISATION
of regulation, economic incentive
state beyond that which could be
mechanisms and technological innova- Figure 3. From national contextual achieved if current policies were imple-
tion. Sustainable development requires scenarios to regional scenarios for the mented. The economy is also likely to
the redressing of global inequities of Humber (modified from OST 1999).
be more regionalized. A Deep Green
income and wealth, as well as
scenario would involve substantial
efficiency gains. A move towards more In the Policy Target scenario, current increases in intertidal areas, compen-
globalisation of governance systems is and prospective legislative targets/ sating for any new works or extension
supported. The remaining two possible objectives are all met on time, accor- of existing installations, over and above
futures are described in OST (1999)
ding to the EU schedule, with a genuine coastal squeeze. The creation of miti-
effort to comply and/or to overcomply gation banks in a formal and regulated
Three regional variants were derived with the objectives. The Habitats setting might contribute to a strategic
from these four national scenarios and Directive is likely to be implemented in approach to an increase in biodiversity
adapted to the Humber (Figure 3). The a genuine attempt to achieve zero (Crooks and Ledoux 2000). A recent
Business As Usual scenario is the base- habitat loss. This would involve com- RSPB study identified 2 858 ha with
line scenario, corresponding roughly to pensation for loss of intertidal area by potential for intertidal habitat creation
the World Markets scenario at national recreating equivalent or increased within the Humber Estuary. In this
level. It is a forward projection of the habitat in another area. For example, scenario, intertidal habitat would
past 20 year trends in data, ignoring the the environmental regulator is creating increase to 2500 ha, i.e. more than
recent sustainable development
80 ha of intertidal habitat at Thorngum- double the area in the Policy Target sce-
strictures. In this scenario, current bald, by moving back the flood defences. nario. Agriculture is likely to become
legislation is only complied with in a The scheme envisages providing com- less intensive. Riparian zones will be
formal way. For example, expected port pensation for several flood defence created along most riverbanks bordering
expansion within the Humber estuary schemes having an adverse impact on farmland to reduce inputs of nutrients to
over the next 20-25 years would lead to designated habitats and contributing rivers. Environmental schemes such as
a loss of 0.2% of the intertidal area in some area towards alleviating coastal reed bed treatment will be widely

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LOICZ NEWSLETTER
applied for secondary sewage treat- compare policy options by reference to Ledoux, L., Crooks, S., Jordan, A. and
ment, rather than hard technology, and an explicit set of evaluation criteria.
Turner, R.K. 2000. Implementing EU
tertiary treatment will be widespread, Stakeholders will provide input in
Biodiversity Policy: UK experiences.
removing nitrogen and phosphorus. In identifying possible policy packages, as
Land Use Policy, 17(4): 257-268.
this scenario, the objective would be to well as specific criteria within three Neal, C. and Robson, A.J. 2000. A
approach "natural" background levels of broad categories (economic, environ-
summary of river water quality data
nutrient and contaminant fluxes through mental, and social). They will also be
collected within the Land-Ocean
the system.
asked to give weights to the evaluation
Interaction Study: core data for
criteria to determine their relative
eastern UK rivers draining to the
importance. The impact of each of the
North Sea. Science of the Total
Future research: estimating future
policy packages on the set of criteria Environment 251: 585-665. Office of
fluxes and policy evaluation
will be assessed through scores, deter-
Science and Technology (OST), 1999.
These scenarios describe possible mined by modelling and expert opinion.
Environmental futures. Report for the
future regional states for the Humber. Policy options will be ranked according
UK's National
The "storylines" they utilise will to their impacts on the criteria, taking Technology Foresight Programme,
facilitate the exploration of possible into account the stakeholder weights
Department of Trade and Industry,
measures to improve water quality in attributed to each criterion. Ultimately,
DTI/Pub 4015/lk 3 99 NP, URN 99
the estuary, under the different eco- the scenarios will provide a consistent
647, UK.
nomic, political and environmental framework to undertake a sensitivity Rotmans, J., van Asselt, M.B.A., de
circumstances associated with each analysis of how the outcome of the
Bruin, A.J., den Elzen, M.G.J., de
scenario, and the estimation of fluxes present-time multi-criteria analysis
Freef, J., Hilderink, H., Hoekstra,
likely to result.
would change under the three different
A.Y., Hanssen, M.A., Köster, H.W.,
possible future scenarios.
Martens, W.J.M., Niessen, L.W. and
Future fluxes of nutrients and conta-
de Vries, H.J.M. 1996. Global change
minants in the three scenarios will be
and sustainable development: A
estimated using a toolbox of com- References
modelling perspective for the next
plementary analytical methods and Andrews, J.E., Samways, G., Dennis,
decade. RIVM report 461502004,
techniques. This include projections of
P.F., Maher, B.A. 2000. Origin, abun-
Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
time-series data available from work
dance and storage of organic carbon Turner, R.K., Adger, W.N. and Loren-
carried out during the LOIS project
and sulphur in the Holocene Humber
zoni, I. 1998. Towards integrated
(e.g. Neal and Robson 2000); use of
Estuary: emphasizing human impact
modelling and analysis in coastal
synthetic time series; interfacing of
on storage changes. In: Shennan, I. and
zones: principles and practices.
outputs from the LOIS catchment
Andrews, J. (eds): Holocene Land-
LOICZ Reports and Studies 11,
model from the Centre for Ecology and
Ocean Interaction and Environmental
LOICZ, Texel, the Netherlands.
Hydrology with the ECoS model for the
Change around the North Sea. Geo-
Humber estuary from Plymouth Marine
logical Society, London. Special
Laboratories, together with partition
publications 166: 145-170.
COASTAL CHANGES AND
coefficients for dissolved-particulate Burbridge, P. 2001. Sustainability and
THE ANTHROPOCENE
interaction interaction derived from
Human Use of Coastal Systems.
LOICZ Synthesis and Futures
other projects (e.g. JONUS, URGENT)
LOICZ Newsletter 21: 3-5.
Meeting Miami, May 2002
and sediment transport models.
Crooks, S. and Ledoux, L. 2000.
Mitigation banking: potential appli- After 9 years of collaborative research
In a second step, the policy options will
cations in the UK. Environmental and addressing Global Change in the
be analysed more in depth. The scena-
Waste Management 3(4): 1-8.
coastal zones, LOICZ held its Synthesis
rios will be used to generate three Edwards, A.M.C., Freestone, R.J. and and Futures Meeting at the Rosenstiel
distinct and radical policy packages,
Crockett, C.P. 1997. River manage- School for Marine and Atmospheric
and the implications for the estuary and
ment in the Humber catchment. Science, University of Miami, USA.
its ambient quality will be investigated.
Science of the Total Environment Dean Otis Brown welcomed the parti-
A cost-effectiveness analysis will be
194: 235-246.
cipants and noted that LOICZ makes an
carried out, relating the estimated costs Harremöes, P. and Turner, R.K., 2001. important contribution in a surrounding
of each policy package to the water
Methods for integrated assessment, of largely disciplinary sciences and
quality objectives imposed by the Water
Regional Environmental Change, rather unlinked institutional structures.
Framework Directive, to determine the
2:57-65.
The Executive Director of IGBP, Will
least cost options to reach these objec- Jickells, T., Andrews, J., Samways, Steffen, highlighted key findings of
tives. Finally, to go some way towards
G., Sanders, R., Malcom, S., Sivyer, recent global change sciences: within
achieving integrated environmental
D., Parker, R., Nedwell, D., Trimmer, the last 100 or 200 years humans have
assessment in an inclusionary form,
M., Ridgeway, J., 2000. Nutrient had such an influence on natural
stakeholders will be consulted on wider
Fluxes Through the Humber Estuary systems that we should now talk about
issues linked to water quality. A multi-
­ Past, present and Future. Ambio 29, the "Anthropocene". Signals such as
criteria analysis will be carried out to
130-135.
the increase in CO2 as well as the retreat

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LOICZ NEWSLETTER
of the polar ice cap are just a few in more than 200 sites and key findings the point was made that a stronger
examples. The coastal zone, the domain support a relatively simple proxy for involvement of human dimension disci-
with a variety of most fragile habitats coastal loading in population density in plines, stakeholder participation and
and home to more than 50% of the catchments. A bimodal distribution of coupling of natural and social science
global population as pointed out by the net-metabolism characteristics has been perspectives would be crucial.
SSC Chair of LOICZ, Han Lindeboom, found. One challenge will be to find
is of priority concern in the context of thresholds for loads that make systems Allocation of value functions to coastal
growing natural and human pressures. flip either temporarily or in general. zones and habitats along with assess-
The first LOICZ synthesis and the Global data sets have been acquired that ment of non-marketable goods and
move into LOICZ II, with increasing make the typological up-scaling services were identified as valid needs
emphasis on society-relevant research approach applicable for assessment of in the future LOICZ. River basins were
on all spatial scales but still with the areas with limited data coverage.
seen to provide an important scale for
priority commitment to global up-
action and assessment.
scaling, was seen to be very timely.
The second task of the Meeting was to
consider the future design of LOICZ, The LOICZ coastal typology metho-
A group of 120 natural and social with a continuing role in IGBP II and dology and approach was seen as
scientists from 40 countries addressed a contributing to the Earth System having a high potential for application
first integrated assessment of coastal Science Partnership of IGBP, IHDP, across national and regional levels. Key
zone material flux models, processes, WCRP and DIVERSITAS. Sessions issues for a future LOICZ Science Plan
and human dimensions, following the were built around the preliminary in the context of the Earth System and
outlines of the LOICZ synthesis book thematics identified in the "LOICZ its change include altered hydrology
(newsletter 17, Jan 01):
Futures discussion paper" (Version 7):
and sea-level rise on global scales,
· Coastal Habitats and Living · River Basins and Human Dimen- climate change in polar regions,
Resources
sions
eutrophication in temperate regions and
· Water and the Coastal Zone
· Spatial Issues: Implications of Land soil erosion in tropical regions.
· Dynamics of the Coastal Zone
Use Changes in the Coastal Zone
· Impacts and Feedbacks in C, N and · Fate and Transformation of Mate- Meeting presentations and posters will be
P Cycling
rials in Coastal and Shelf Waters
available on the LOICZ web-site in the
· Science for Management
· Towards System Sustainability and next few weeks. A Meeting report will be
Resource Management
published soon. The LOICZ SSC is grate-
Plenaries and working groups started to · Risk and Vulnerability
ful for the constructive input provided by
distil the messages produced so far, and
all participants, for organisation by
to identify gaps. Coastal habitats were Introductory plenaries from other related RSMAS and funding support from IAI,
seen to provide the frame for the other projects planned or implemented by IGBP IOI, KNAW, NSF, UNESCO/IOC,
chapters reflecting the systems, their IGBP (Oceans, SOLAS, Land) provided START and WOTRO.
natural and human-induced variability a focus for discussion of LOICZ future
and related value functions for environ- directions. Institutional perspectives by
mental and societal developments. the European Commission, the IAI, and
LOICZ IPO NOTES
Discussions focussed on strong and UNESCO/IOC gave a client's view of
weak sustainability options as a trans- LOICZ science and products. Further Currently, LOICZ efforts are much
lation of scientific results into manage- insight was given into current and focussed on the development and writing
ment advice. The multi-regional appli- potential applications of LOICZ of the LOICZ Synthesis to be contained
cation of the DPSIR assessment science by representatives of the in a text describing the research that the
framework has provided an overview, Coastal GOOS (Global Oceans Obser- global community has developed over
ranking and trend analysis of river vation System) of IOC and the EU 6th the last 9 years to answer a series of
catchment­coast interactions under Framework Programme. The immediate global change questions. The outcomes
human influence. Investigations of relevance of river basin/coastal sea from the recent Miami meeting, descri-
sediment and water fluxes and impli- assessment scales was supported and bed earlier, have contributed greatly to
cations for coastal dynamics reveals the the impli­cations for policy advice this effort. While we continue with this
close interplay between global change (EU water framework directive), were challenging synthesis task, LOICZ IPO
and human response. Estimates con- highlighted.
and a number of the LOICZ network of
sider some 8,400 km3 of freshwater to
scientists have been planning for the new
be trapped behind dams, a 700% A principal outcome of the discussions LOICZ programme of activities as part
increase of water storage. This can was an overall consensus on the of the evolving IGBP programme, with
visibly alter the material exchange proposed thematics and cross-cutting LOICZ II scheduled to start in January
between the coasts and the catchments. activities (scaling, variability, disse- 2003. The Futures work is engaging with
Groundwater delivery to the coastal mination and acquisition). The out- a number of national scientific groups to
zone is estimated to be about 5-6% of comes and advice of the Meeting will establish nodes across the world regions
the global river flow (37,000 km3 y-1). add to the development of a LOICZ II and to continue to build out new
C, N and P cycling has been modelled Science Plan into 2003. Throughout, projects.

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LOICZ NEWSLETTER
LOICZ Futures and Human
a major point of discussion. Conside- The EU-sponsored EuroCat project has
Dimensions
ration of the future plans and a modified been extended to include the Idrija
An important element for the new structure for LOICZ operations were key River (Gulf of Trieste) and the Prova-
LOICZ direction is to closely engage items, with resolution of directions diiska River (Bulgaria) draining to the
with the human dimensions scientific building on the outcomes of the Miami Black Sea (http://www.iia-cnr.unical.it/
fraternity, especially through the S&F Meeting. Future funding, a EUROCAT/ project.htm).
International Human Dimensions distributed IPO and improved regional
Programme (IHDP). Recognising that representation and node points were The European Commission is in the
more than half of the world's evaluated and plans for improved process of opening the new 6th Frame-
population lives in the coastal zone and communications within the planning and work programme for research. There
that humans are increasingly affecting implementation of the new LOICZ are two new categories of proposal:
the global processes, the imperative for program were developed. Further infor- integrated mega-research projects
a strong natural and socio-economic mation will be available on the LOICZ (ca. e 20-30 million ­ at least three
scientist collaboration in the new web-site in the immediate future.
partners, duration three to five years)
LOICZ programme is obvious. This
and networks of excellence (at least
development was enthusiastically New Projects
6 partners, duration five or more years).
endorsed at the Miami meeting and we A number of new projects have been Both areas have attracted strong interest
are increasingly involving sociologists, received as contributions to the current from the LOICZ community and
economists and institutional researchers LOICZ efforts and will extend into the several expressions of interest have
in the LOICZ Futures planning.
new LOICZ programme. The Nether- been submitted. Further information on
lands government has established five these developments can be seen at
In early June LOICZ representatives new research projects as part of its (http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/fp6/
joined with regional scientists in a sym- e 3.17 million LOICZ programme, networks-ip.html).
posium in Bali on the Exclusive Econo- including:
mic Zone in the Asia Pacific. This inclu- Transport of suspended particulate Si transformations along the Land-
ded a wide-ranging discussion about the material in the Dutch Coast (Dr H. Ocean Continuum: 6 PhD and 6 post-
effect of EEZ institutional arrangements Ridderinkhof, NIOZ);
doctoral positions will be available
and its impact on sustainable develop- Archael carbon fixation and burial and from October 1, 2002, within the
ment, fostered by the IHDP Institutional terrestrial organic matter input in the framework of the Si-WEBS Research
Dimensions of Global Environmental coastal system as revealed by tetraether Training Network. Si-WEBS (Natural
Change (IDGEC). The opportunity was membrane lipids (Dr J.S. Sinninghe and Anthropogenic perturbations of the
taken to discuss collaboration and poten- Damste, NIOZ);
Silicon cycle: Worldwide Ecological,
tial joint research projects with IDGEC Bio-geomorphological interactions
Biogeochemical and Socioeconomical
and we look forward to close working within floodplains and their role in consequences) is a network funded by
relationships as we proceed into the new sediment transport and ecological the European Commission. Details of
LOICZ programme.
transformation processes in the lower the work programme, positions, and
Rhine delta (Prof E.A. Koster, Utrecht, additional eligibility conditions for
In addition, the LOICZ SSC resolved Univ.) Mechanisms involved in salt young researchers can be found at the
that a working group be established marsh rejuvenation (Prof. J.P Bakker, Si-WEBS web-page:
to develop a new Science Plan Groningen Univ.)
http://www.pangaea.de/Projects/
(2003-2012). Working group member- Budgeting of carbon and related Si-WEBS/ For further information,
ship is expected to include a mixture of nutrient pools and fluxes in the North please contact: Olivier Ragueneau,
"natural" scientists and human Sea employing a coupled hydro- Olivier.Ragueneau@univ-brest.fr
dimensions scientists to develop the dynamic ecosystem model (Dr Helmut
Plan over the next 12 months. A current Thomas, NIOZ).
New address ­ Stephen V. Smith
LOICZ Futures Discussion Document
Prof. Stephen V. Smith, well-known to
will form the platform for this develop- A call for projects addressing human most of the LOICZ community for his
ment; contact the LOICZ IPO if you dimensions research in the coastal zone Focus 3 leadership and co-mentoring
have not received a copy of the will be made later this year.
(with Prof. Fred Wulff) of the
Discussion Document. We are seeking
biogeochemical and budgetting work in
a wide input to the development of Two new EU-supported projects have LOICZ, is moving from Hawaii to
thematic research areas, issues, and been approved: DINAS-Coasts (model- Ensenada, Mexico. His new contact
directions and would greatly appreciate ling natural and socio-economic details are:
your advice and comments.
impacts of accelerated sea level rise, Postal: Department of Ecology,
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~richardk/ CISESE, PO Box 434844,
LOICZ SSC
dinas-coast/), and ALIENS (Algal San Diego, CA 92143-4884, USA.
The SSC met over two days in Invasions in European Shores ­ for more Phone: +52 646 1745050;
association with the LOICZ Synthesis information go to http://www.cordis.lu/ Fax: +52 646 1750545;
and Futures Meeting in Miami. The eesd/ka3/cluster5.htm) that have a strong email: svsmith@cicese.mx
preparation of the LOICZ Synthesis was relationship with LOICZ science.

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page 7
LOICZ NEWSLETTER
The DINAS-COAST Project
· to identify particularly vulnerable Young, Oran R., The institutional
coastal areas and allow for the dimensions of environmental change:
Dr. A.C. de la Vega-Leinert
evaluation of a range of alternative fit, interplay, and scale, 2002
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
responses.
Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Research, Germany
ISBN 0-262-24043-2 (hc.)-ISBN 0-
e-mail: delavega@pik-potsdam.de
DIVA will be a valuable tool for training 262-74024-9 (pbk.)
and awareness raising. Its resolution will
Over the past decade, extensive not allow coastal managers to make
research has been produced to assess decisions at their scale of operation.
WHAT'S ON THE WWWEB
coastal vulnerability to impacts of However, DIVA will provide insight into
accelerated sea-level rise from local to the sensitivity of the coast to climate
global perspectives. National studies change and will thus be useful in infor- Integrated Coastal Zone Management
have been commissioned for example ming coastal managers and national and in the Venice Area. A methodological
by the US Country Studies Programme international policy makers of the issues framework: http://www.feem.it/web/
and the Netherlands Climate Change at stake in relation to climate change, activ/wp/abs01/100-01.pdf
Studies Assistance Programme. Inter- coastal impacts and adaptation strategies. Integrated Coastal Zone Management
pretation of local/national results is,
in the Venice Area. Potentials of the
however, constrained by the fact that The DINAS-COAST (Dynamic and Integrated Participatory Management
these studies used a range of methods, Interactive Assessment of National Approach: http://www.feem.it/web/activ/
scenarios and assumptions. Throughout Regional and Global Vulnerability of wp/abs01/99-01.pdf
the 1990s, a first evaluation of coastal Coastal Zones to Climate Change and Integrated Coastal Zone Management
impacts and adaptation at regional and Sea-Level Rise - EVK2-2000-22024) in the Venice Area. Perspectives of
global scales was developed via the project is funded by the European Com- development for the rural island of
Global Vulnerability Assessment mission under the 5th Research Frame- Sant'Erasmo: http://www.feem.it/web/
Framework (Hoozemans et al., 1993). work. It is led by Richard Klein (Potsdam activ/wp/abs01/98-01.pdf
DINAS-COAST will update and Institute for Climate Impact Research,
improve this early effort to satisfy cur- Germany). Four other partner institutes The Water Action Unit's first part of the
rent information needs for international collaborate within DINAS-COAST World Water Action draft report, to be
climate policy.
(Flood Hazard Research Centre, UK; presented at the 3rd World Water Forum
Hamburg University, Germany and WL in Kyoto 2003, can be downloaded
DINAS-COAST is a top-down model- Delft Hydraulics and the Centre for Envi- from the following link for feedback
ling efforts which builds on state of the ronmental Studies, The Netherlands).
and input:
art science and data to help policy For more information of the project, www.worldwatercouncil.org/WAU_
makers to interpret and evaluate coastal please log on our website:
intro.shtml
vulnerability to impacts of accelerated h t t p : / / w w w. P I K - P o t s d a m . D E /
sea-level rise, and adaptation options. ~richardk/dinas-coast/ or contact
A special website for Africa has been
The project will develop DIVA Dr. Anne C. de la Vega-Leinert at
established by Charles Magori:
(Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability delavega@pik-potsdam.de
www.ioc. unesco.org/glossafrica
Assessment) which will allow the user
(e-mail: cmagori@yahoo.com)
to produce quantitative data:
· on a range of coastal vulnerability Reference
The Terrestrial Ecosystem Monitoring
indicators,
Hoozemans, F.M.J., Marchand, M. Sites (TEMS) database has recently been
· for user-selected climatic and socio- and Pennekamp, H.A. (1993): A upgraded and includes new features
economic scenarios and adaptation Global Vulnerability Analysis, Vulnera- such as: faster database search and
policies,
bility assessments for population, access to information, four interactive
· on national, regional and global coastal wetlands and rice production eco-regional maps, local climate data
scales, covering all 180+ coastal on a global scale, 2nd Edition, Delft from the FAO global database, an initial
nations.
Hydraulics and Rijkswaterstaat, Delft coastal module and many other features
and the Hague.
that are less visible but help the data-
DIVA will enable its users:
base run more efficiently. The updated
· to explore the effects of, on the one
version of TEMS is available on the
hand, climate change mitigation and
HAVE YOU SEEN
web at: www.fao.org/gtos/tems.
on the other, adaptation in coastal
zone,
Lacerda, de Luiz Drude (Ed.), The following sites are accessible via
· to explore potential cost-effective Mangrove ecosystems: Function and the LOICZ web-site:
policies that combine mitigation Management, 2002 Springer, ISBN 3- http://www.nioz.nl/loicz
with adaptation,
540 422080.
· to set priorities for international For more info please contact:
Biogeochemical Budgets and Model-
cooperation with respect to climate Luiz Drude de Lacerda,
ling ­ new sites and tutorial materials
change and development, and
e-mail: ldrude@fortalnet.com.br
(http://data.ecology.su.se/MNODE/)

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page 8
LOICZ NEWSLETTER
Typology web-site:
APN/START/LOICZ Regional work- START/APN/TEA Workshop on Global
(http://water.kgs.ukans.edu:8888/public/ shop on Assessment of Material Fluxes Change and Sustainable Development in
Typpages/index.htm) and (www.kgs. to Coastal Zone in South Asia and their Coastal Northeast Asia, 7-8 October
ukans.edu/Hexacoral/Workshops)
Impacts, Colombo, Sri Lanka, 9-10 2002, Vladivostok, Russia.
December 2002.
Contact Vladimir Kasyanov,
Links
Visit www.coastal-fluxes. slt.lk or
inmabio@mail.primorye.ru
Basins:
contact: Dr. Janaka Ratnasiri,
http://w3g.gkss.de/projects/loicz_basins/
e-mail: janakar @itmin.com
2nd GLOBEC Open Science Meeting,
Deltas management:
15-18 October 2002, Qingdao, P.R.
http://www.deltasnetwork.nl
IGBP/SCOR International Open Science China. http://www.pml.ac.uk/globec/
South Asia Coastal Fluxes:
Meeting on Ocean Biogeochemistry and
http://www.coastal-fluxes.slt.lk
Ecosystems, January 2003, Paris, France. 34th COSPAR Scientific Assembly and
Go to: www.igbp.kva.se/obe/
Second World Space Congress, 10-19
October 2002, Houston, Texas, USA.
LOICZ PUBLICATIONS
18th IGBP SC Meeting, 20-24 January Visit: http://www.copernicus.org/
2003, Punta Arenas, Chile.
COSPAR/COSPAR.html
LOICZ publications are available as Contact Clemencia Widlund,
printed copies and are also down- clemencia@igbp.kva.se
QUASIMENE Conference: Measure-
loadable from the LOICZ web-site.
ments in the marine Environment:
For hard copies of LOICZ R&S volumes 3rd IGBP Congress, 19-25 June 2003, Challenges and Achievement, 23-26
(as long as stocks last), email:
Banff, Canada. Contact Clemencia Wid- October 2002, Barcelona, Spain.
mildred@nioz.nl .
lund, clemencia@igbp.kva.se and Char- Visit: http://www.iaea.org/monaco or
lotte Wilson, charlottew@igbp.kva.se
email S.de_Mora@iaea.org
Estuarine systems of the Latin Ameri-
can Region (Regional workshop V) and
estuarine systems of the Arctic region:
OTHER MEETINGS
IPO STAFF
carbon,
nitrogen and phosphorus
fluxes. Eds. Camacho-Ibar, V., V. Dupra,
F. Wulff, S.V. Smith, J.I. Marshall Cross- International Symposium on Low-Lying CHRIS CROSSLAND
land and C.J. Crossland 2002, LOICZ Coastal Areas: Hydrology and Integrated
Executive Officer
Reports & Studies No. 23, ii+103 pages, Coastal Zone Management.
HARTWIG KREMER
LOICZ, Texel, The Netherlands
9-12 September 2002, Bremerhaven,
Deputy Executive Officer
Germany. Contact Alicia Aureli, HESTER WHYTE,
The role of the coastal ocean in the UNESCO (a.aureli@unesco.org).
Office Manager
disturbed and undisturbed nutrient
MILDRED JOURDAN,
and carbon cycles. Eds. Buddemeier, Joint IAMAS/CACGP/IGAC Scientific
Office Assistant
R.W., S.V. Smith, D.P. Swaney and C.J. Conference on Atmospheric Chemistry in MAARTEN SCHEFFERS
Crossland 2002, LOICZ Reports & Stu- the Earth System: From Regional Pollu-
Liaison Officer
dies No. 24, ii, 83 pages + CD-ROM, tion to Global Change, 15-18 September JAN CROSSLAND
LOICZ, Texel, The Netherlands.
2002, Crete, Greece. Abstract deadline
Editor
submission March 2002. Contact
igac2002@chemistry.uoc.gr Visit:
LOICZ/IGBP CALENDAR
http://atlas.chemistry.uoc.gr/IGAC2002
FOR MORE INFORMATION,
PLEASE CONTACT:
15th IGBP Officers Meeting, 7-10 Octo- 37th DEFRA Flood and Coastal Manage-
ber 2002, Casablanca, Morocco.
ment Conference, 16-17 September
LOICZ INTERNATIONAL PROJECT
Contact: Clemencia Widlund,
2002, Keele Conference Park, Keele Uni-
OFFICE
clencia@igbp.kva.se
versity, Keele, Staffordshire, UK. Visit
NETHERLANDS INSTITUTE FOR
http://www.defra.gov.uk/environ/fcd/def
SEA RESEARCH
LOICZ/JGOFS Continental Margin ault.htm or contact Jessica Sampey
PO BOX 59
Task Team Workshop for the Global by phone: +44 (0) 1782 584379 or by
1790 AB DEN BURG - TEXEL
Synthesis of the 5 Regional Syntheses, fax: +44 (0) 1782 713058
THE NETHERLANDS
4-6 December 2002, Washington DC,
USA. Contact: Larry Atkinson,
11th International Biennial Conference on
PHONE: 31-222 369404
atkinson@ccpo.odu.edu,
Physics of Estuaries and Coastal Seas
FAX:
31-222 369430
Renato Quinones, rquinone@udec.cl (PECS'02), 17-20 September 2002,
E-MAIL: LOICZ@NIOZ.NL
and Richard Jahnke,
Hamburg, Germany. Visit
WWW HOME PAGE:
rick@skio.peachnet.edu
http://www.pecs-conference.org.
HTTP://WWW.NIOZ.NL/LOICZ/
A CORE PROJECT OF THE
I
G
B
P
INTERNATIONAL GEOSPHERE-BIOSPHERE PROGRAMME

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