Nile Basin Initiative
Shared Vision
Program
SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT AND
BENEFIT-SHARING
PROJECT DOCUMENT
March 2001
Council of Ministers of Water Affairs
of the Nile Basin States

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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing i
TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS..........................................................................................iii
PREFACE................................................................................................................................... v
1.
SUMMARY.......................................................................................................................... 1
2.
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES.......................................................................... 1
2.1.Project Goal and Development Objectives..................................................................... 1
2.2.Performance Indicators ................................................................................................. 1
3.
STRATEGIC CONTEXT ...................................................................................................... 1
3.1.The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)........................................................................................ 1
3.2.NBI Objectives .............................................................................................................. 4
3.3.Related Sector Issues ................................................................................................... 4
3.4.Sector Issues to be Addressed by the Project and Strategic Choices............................. 5
4.
PROJECT SUMMARY......................................................................................................... 5
4.1.Project Components...................................................................................................... 5
4.2.Benefits and Target Population.................................................................................... 13
4.3.Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ........................................................... 13
5.
PROJECT RATIONALE..................................................................................................... 17
5.1.Major Related Projects Financed by External Support Agencies (ESAs) ...................... 17
5.2.Lessons Learned and Reflected in Proposed Project Design ....................................... 17
6.
ISSUES REQUIRING SPECIAL ATTENTION.................................................................... 17
6.1.Economic Issues......................................................................................................... 17
6.2.Technical Issues ......................................................................................................... 18
6.3.Environmental Issues .................................................................................................. 18
6.4.Participation Issues ..................................................................................................... 18
7.
SUSTAINABILITY AND RISKS.......................................................................................... 19
7.1.Sustainability............................................................................................................... 19
7.2.Critical Risks ............................................................................................................... 19
8.
PROJECT PREPARATION PROCESS.............................................................................. 20
8.1.Evolution of the Shared Vision Program: A Coordinated Basin-Wide Program ............. 20
8.2.Detailed Project Preparation: A Multi-Country, Multi-Sectoral, Participatory Process.... 21
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
FIGURES AND TABLES
Figure 1. An Illustration of Possible Levels of Nile Cooperation...................................................3
Figure 2. The Scenario Development Component.....................................................................15
Figure 3. Project Organizational Chart......................................................................................16
Table 1. Summary and Indicative Costs of Socio-Economic Development Program Project
Components..............................................................................................................11
Table 2. Project Design Summary (Logical Framework Analysis)............................................12
Table 3. Suggested Project Scheduling ...................................................................................14
Table 4. Preparation of the Shared Vision Program .................................................................22
MAP OF THE NILE BASIN ........................................................................................................23
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing iii
ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS
CIDA
Canadian International Development Agency
DRC
Democratic Republic of Congo
DSS
decision support system
EN-SAP
Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program
NEL-SAP
Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program
EU
European Union
FAO
UN Food and Agriculture Organization
GEF
Global Environment Facility
GDP
gross domestic product
ICCON
International Consortium for Cooperation on the Nile
IDA
International Development Association
IWRM
Integrated Water Resources Management
NBI
Nile Basin Initiative
Nile-COM
Council of Ministers of Water Affairs of the Nile Basin
Nile-SEC
Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat based at Entebbe, Uganda
Nile-TAC
Nile Technical Advisory Committee
PCC
project coordination committee
PMU
project management unit
SAP
Subsidiary Action Program
SVP
Shared Vision Program
UNDP
United Nations Development Programme
USAID
United States Agency for International Development
Please note that all dollar figures are current U.S. dollars unless indicated otherwise
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing v
PREFACE
In an historic effort, the ten countries of the Nile have come together within the Nile Basin Initiative to
realize a shared vision "to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable
utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources." Recognizing the
tremendous benefits that can be reaped from cooperation, yet fully aware of the challenges ahead,
the Nile countries have embarked on a remarkable journey to translate their shared vision into
concrete activities and projects that will build confidence and capacity across the basin (the Shared
Vision Program), as well as initiate concrete investments and action on the ground at local levels
(Subsidiary Action Programs).
Presented herein is one of the projects within the Shared Vision Program. The full project portfolio
includes:
Ø Nile Transboundary Environmental Action
Ø Nile Basin Regional Power Trade
Ø Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production
Ø Water Resources Planning and Management
Ø Confidence-Building and Stakeholder Involvement (Communications)
Ø Applied Training
Ø Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing.
As a whole, the Shared Vision Program aims to create an enabling environment for cooperative
development and management. Though each project is different in focus and scope, all contribute to
building a strong foundation for regional cooperation by supporting basin-wide engagement and
dialogue, developing common strategic and analytical frameworks, building practical tools and
demonstrations, and strengthening human and institutional capacity.
The seven projects of the Shared Vision Program build upon each other to form a coordinated
program. They address the major water-related sectors and cross-cutting themes deemed critical by
the Nile riparians to ensure an integrated and comprehensive approach to water resources
development and management, and that this development serves as a catalyst for broader socio-
economic development and regional cooperation. Together, the projects of the Shared Vision
Program seek to forge a common vision for--as well as build the capacity to achieve--the
sustainable development the River Nile for the benefit of all. They pave the way for the realization of
investments on the ground through the Subsidiary Action Programs.
The detailed preparation of the Shared Vision Program was accomplished through a unique, multi-
country, multi-sectoral and highly participatory process led by the Nile Council of Ministers and
Technical Advisory Committee and executed by the Nile Secretariat. More than 70 national experts,
including 8 technical specialists from nine countries, were involved in detailed project preparation.
For many, it was the first time that they were able to discuss common concerns with their colleagues
from neighboring and co-riparian countries. The energy and hope for the future engendered by this
preparation process were a visible demonstration of the power of cooperation, strong riparian
ownership, and the commitment of the Nile countries to jointly pursue their common goal.
But the preparation of the Shared Vision Program is just a beginning. Implementing these projects
and ensuring that tangible benefits are realized is the next challenge. It is a challenge which requires
deepening partnerships with the international development community. Promoting cooperation
among the countries of the Nile will inherently be a complex process. However, such cooperation is
essential if sustainable development and management of the Nile is to be achieved.
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 1
1. SUMMARY
This project aims to promote socio-economic cooperation and development in the Nile Basin
countries through further cooperation, dialogue, exchange, and integration of the Nile countries in
their quest for development and poverty eradication. The project will foster the cooperation through
three related sets of activities; (a) scenario-building and socio-economic information bases, (b)
riparian dialogue for private sector cooperation and investment, and (c) capacity-strengthening. In
addition, the project will also act to ensure the integrity, synergy, and optimal sequencing with minimal
duplication of the Shared Vision Program (SVP) through the establishment of an SVP monitoring
matrix.
2. PROJECT DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES
2.1. Project Goal and Development Objectives
Goal. The goal of the SVP is to achieve sustainable and widely-shared socio-economic development
in the countries sharing the Nile River Basin through equitable utilization and sharing of the benefits
from the common Nile River Basin resource. Benefits may include a level of integration through
cooperation on Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) projects.
Development Objectives. The development objective of this project is to support the SVP by
enabling the riparians to form a range of basin-wide development scenarios, and specify the benefits
accruing from the implementation of such scenarios (together with some notion of how benefits will be
shared). Fundamentally, the project aims to provide an opportunity for riparian dialogue that can
include a wide range of society and that will develop common visions of cooperative development in
sectoral or thematic areas. This will be done by providing support to; (a) identify and assess a range
of cooperative development scenarios, (b) develop criteria, methods, and frameworks for sharing the
benefits and costs of cooperative development scenarios, and for managing attendant risks, and (c)
strengthen national and regional capacities for policy and macro-economic analysis, which can
support further cooperation opportunities identified through the scenario development process.
2.2. Performance Indicators
The key performance indicators for this project will be developed based on measurable milestones
and outcomes that will track the production of the key instruments of the project (analyses,
frameworks, assessments), evaluate their contributions based on their utilization (through creation of
development scenarios), and assess the credibility and persuasiveness of these scenarios and
proposals based on the support they win among policymakers, investors, and donors and the degree
of consensus at both national and basin-wide levels.
3. STRATEGIC CONTEXT
3.1. The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)
The Nile Basin. The Nile River, the longest river in the world, traverses more than 6,700 kilometers
from its farthest point at the headwaters of the Kagera River in Rwanda to its delta in Egypt on the
Mediterranean Sea. Ten countries share the Nile: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),
Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. The Nile River Basin covers
3 million km2--one tenth of Africa's total land mass. It serves as home to world-class environmental
assets, such as Lake Victoria (the second largest fresh water body by area in the world) and the vast
wetlands of the Sudd. It also serves as home to an estimated 160 million people within the
boundaries of the Basin while nearly twice that number--roughly 300 million--live within the ten
countries that share the Nile waters.
Challenges and Opportunities. Despite the extraordinary natural endowments and rich cultural
history of the Nile Basin, its people face considerable challenges. Today, the Basin is characterized
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2 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
by poverty, instability, rapid population growth, and environmental degradation. Half the Nile riparian
countries are among the world's ten poorest. Population is expected to double within the next 25
years, placing additional strain on the scarce water and other natural resources. Yet the Nile holds
significant opportunities for win-win development that could enhance energy availability, food
production, transportation, industrial development, environmental conservation, and other related
development activities in the region. Cooperative water resources management might also serve as a
catalyst for greater regional integration, both economic and political, with benefits far exceeding those
derived from the river itself.
Towards a Long-Term Legal and Institutional Framework. Aware that forward movement on Nile
cooperation requires a development focus, a permanent institution, and agreement on core legal
principles, the Nile riparians established a forum to facilitate a process of legal and institutional
dialogue in 1997. In early 2000 a panel of experts, including senior government lawyers and water
resources specialists from each country, produced a draft text of a "Cooperative Framework." This
draft Framework has moved the riparians a long way and important compromises have been
reached. However, some key issues remain to be resolved, and the Council of Ministers agreed in
August 2000 to extend the process to further dialogue on outstanding issues. The United Nations
Development Programme (UNDP) has pledged its continued support to the process--a process
which by its very nature requires time and effort.
The Nile Basin Initiative. Recognizing the need to take concrete steps to realize the development
potential of the Nile while the dialogue on a permanent legal and institutional framework continues,
the Nile riparians took an historic step towards cooperation in the establishment of the NBI (NBI).
Formally launched in February 1999, the NBI is a transitional institutional mechanism that includes all
riparians and provides an agreed basin-wide framework to fight poverty and promote economic
development in the region. The Initiative is guided by a shared vision "to achieve sustainable socio-
economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin
water resources,"1 and a set of policy guidelines which provide a basin-wide framework for
cooperative action. The NBI is comprised of a Council of Ministers of Water Affairs of the Nile Basin
(Nile-COM), a Technical Advisory Committee (Nile-TAC), and a Secretariat (Nile-SEC) located in
Entebbe, Uganda.
A Strategic Action Program. To translate the NBI's shared vision into action, a strategic action
program has been launched to identify and prepare cooperative projects in the Basin. The program
consists of two complementary sub-programs, a SVP (SVP) of technical assistance and capacity-
building type projects to be implemented basin-wide to create an enabling environment for
cooperative development and SAPs carried out by smaller groups of Nile riparians, comprising
physical investments at the sub-basin level.
The basin-wide SVP currently includes seven projects. Four of these are thematic in nature,
addressing issues related to environmental management, power trade, efficient water use for
agriculture, and water resources planning and management. The remaining three are facilitative,
supporting efforts to strengthen confidence-building and stakeholder involvement, applied training,
and socio-economic development and benefit-sharing.
Two SAPs have formed, the Eastern Nile (EN-SAP) and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Region (NEL-
SAP). EN-SAP currently includes Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, while NEL-SAP includes the six
countries in the southern portion of the Basin, as well as the downstream riparians Sudan and Egypt.
These subsidiary groups have identified joint investment projects which warrant further investigation
and preparation.
Riparian Consultative Process. The Nile-COM is the main policy and guidance forum for Nile Basin
cooperation. Important roles of the Nile-TAC are to coordinate joint activities and establish working

1 Council of Ministers of Water Affairs of the Nile Basin States, Policy Guidelines for the Nile River Basin
Strategic Action Program, February 1999.
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 3
groups as needed to accomplish specific tasks. The Nile-TAC is responsible to the Nile-COM for the
preparation of the SVP, which will be coordinated and implemented at the basin-wide level. While the
Nile-TAC is to promote the establishment of working groups of concerned countries to identify SAP
projects at the sub-basin level, the responsibility for SAPs will rest with the involved riparians.
Throughout the process, high priority will continue to be placed on strengthening the process of
consultation in order to build trust and confidence. Figure 1 illustrates how country activities will take
place within sub-basin frameworks, which will occur within the broader context of the basin-wide
framework. The basin-wide framework also includes an "international discourse" to promote
international support for the sustainable development and management of Nile waters.
International Consortium for Cooperation on the Nile (ICCON). An International Consortium for
Cooperation on the Nile (ICCON) is being established to support the NBI's strategic action program.
Its first meeting is scheduled for June 2001. The ICCON will be a unique forum, organized by the
World Bank at the riparians' request, and envisioned as a long-term partnership of the riparian states
and the international community. The first meeting of the ICCON will seek to raise funding for a
portfolio of basin-wide Shared Vision Projects and the preparation of projects identified under the
SAPs. The first ICCON meeting will also celebrate cooperation and demonstrate international
solidarity for cooperative development in the Nile Basin.
Partnerships. Support for the NBI has been characterized by partnership since it began. The initial
partners comprised the World Bank, the UNDP, and the Canadian International Development Agency
(CIDA). These initial "cooperating partners" played the role of concerned facilitators, assisting the
process of dialogue. As the NBI moved into the preparation of the strategic action program, the
governments of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United
Kingdom, and the United States, together with the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the
Global Environmental Facility (GEF), actively supported the Initiative, directly or through World Bank
trust funds. With the first ICCON, the circle of partners will widen as the international development
community commits further support for Shared Vision Projects and for preparation of Subsidiary
Action Projects.
International Nile Discourse
Burundi
Rwanda
Ethiopia
Sudan
Tanzania
Eastern Nile
Southern Nile
Egypt
Kenya
Eritrea
DRC
Uganda
Nile Basin
Figure 1. An Illustration of Possible Levels of Nile Cooperation
Summary. The NBI provides a transitional institutional mechanism, an agreed vision and basin-wide
framework, and a process to facilitate substantial investment in the Nile Basin to realize regional
socio-economic development. The NBI represents deep commitment by the Nile riparian countries to
foster cooperation and sustainable development of the River Nile for the benefit of all.
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4 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
3.2. NBI Objectives
The policy guidelines adopted by Nile-COM in February 1999 further defined the primary objectives of
the NBI. These objectives are:
Ø To develop the water resources of the Nile Basin in a sustainable and equitable way to ensure
prosperity, security, and peace for all its peoples
Ø To ensure efficient water management and the optimal use of the resources
Ø To ensure cooperation and joint action between the riparian countries, seeking win-win gains
Ø To target poverty eradication and promote economic integration
Ø To ensure that the program results in a move from planning to action.
The present project is designed in support of the above objectives. The project specifically addresses
objective three through the exploration of alternative development scenarios seeking optimum win-
win benefits. Through the riparian dialogue component of the project, an open dialogue and an
enabling environment will be created through which cross-riparian cooperation and investment can be
fostered, thereby further underpinning objectives three and four. All activities in the project will be
directly supporting a move from planning toward action.
3.3. Related Sector Issues
Poverty Reduction and the Nile Strategic Action Program. Under the Nile strategic action
program, development that is to be socially, politically, and economically sustainable must have
poverty reduction as its main goal. If it is to be rapid, the riparian states will need to greatly increase
the openness of their economies, not just to each other but also to the outside world.
Almost all Basin countries already have development plans that emphasize poverty-reducing growth
strategies. Most of the plans acknowledge that growth will be strengthened by further opening the
economies to the rest of the world. The problem has been that many of the countries started from
difficult initial conditions. Long-lasting internal or external conflicts have made it impossible for the
governments to implement coherent development programs. This has been exacerbated further by
external shocks such as weather conditions or changes in global terms of trade that have greatly
reduced export prices or increased import prices.
Nevertheless, there are grounds for optimism. In recent years, new leadership in a number of
countries has been striving to bring peace and to improve policy environments, and in a number of
cases they have succeeded. Output and trade in most of the Basin countries are now expanding,
something that has not happened for any length of time in the last 30 years. This change in
momentum probably has had a positive impact on the progress achieved so far under the NBI. The
NBI in turn has helped reinforce the trend to greater cooperation and renewed growth throughout the
Basin.
The individual country development strategies are compatible. Indeed they are mutually supportive,
and cooperation under the NBI can reinforce interdependence. Cooperative Nile-related investments
could result in the development of hydropower that could then be traded among the riparians.
Agriculture could be vastly improved through the better use of the Nile waters (and application of
other inputs needed for intensification). Development of transport links could help agricultural crops
and other goods to find their way to regional markets and beyond. Transport corridors, along with the
Nile itself, could become major axes of future development, powered by newly available electricity.
The vast majority of the population in the Basin still derive its livelihood from agriculture, and any
development that directly or indirectly supports the agriculture sector would help to reduce poverty in
the Basin countries.
More rapid development will, in turn, impose increasing demands on the water resources.
Experiences from other river basins, such as the Rhine and now also the Danube, however, show
that this can be turned into a "virtuous circle" in which ever higher levels of output and welfare benefit
from collaboration in the use of water. Such benefits from cooperation build the financial ability and
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 5
create the trust needed to make the collaboration even better as competing demands and uses for
water increase with time. What appears now to be an impossible set of competing demands
(hydropower generation, flood control, irrigation, clean water for drinking and sanitation, transport,
recreation, fishing for food, control of waterborne diseases, conservation of biodiversity, etc.) is
manageable with mutual trust among the neighboring countries and the financial wherewithal to
undertake the needed adaptations.
Political Support. The NBI is supported at the highest political levels of the riparian countries. The
Nile-COM gives the Initiative its operational and inspirational guidance. The views of the Ministers
themselves are part of and reinforce the strategic vision of the direction of overall socio-economic
development in the Nile countries. There is a sense that collaborating on the use of Nile waters will
help provide the glue needed to open up these countries to each other's ideas, goods, services,
capital, and labor, and that together they can greatly speed up the process of poverty reduction in
their respective countries.
3.4. Sector Issues to be Addressed by the Project and Strategic Choices
Three important issues are addressed by this project:
Non-optimal Integration of Economic Development Strategies. While the existing development
strategies of the riparian countries are in principle compatible, the interaction among them could be
vastly improved. Joint scenario development, based on an agreed set of national socio-economic
information bases, is aimed at doing just that. By providing opportunities to discuss each other's
strategies, the understanding of each other's comparative advantages will grow, and trust will
increase. Along with other projects under the Nile strategic action program, this is expected to create
a more conducive environment for larger investments, including a greater number of cross-border
ventures. This will help convert some elements of the visions explored under the scenarios into
reality. The riparians will reap the benefits of their cooperation and be spurred to pursue ever more
interdependent win-win projects that will require more mutual trust but will also bring with them much
larger benefits.
Lack of Cross-Border Investment. Currently, the risks of cross-border investments are high. Large,
irreversible investments require confidence that the policymakers in the relevant countries will help
create an environment conducive to the successful implementation of the investments. This takes a
lot of coordination between the private and public sectors of the respective countries, as well as the
trust that the necessary climate conducive to investment will be maintained. This project will help
create opportunities for investors, policymakers, and donors to get together, discuss the various
proposed scenarios, and decide what sort of investments and policy actions are needed to turn key
elements of the scenarios into reality.
Inadequate Capacity. Capacity for policy analysis is rather uneven across the Nile Basin countries,
and even where available, the number of people with the requisite skills are usually too small.
Assessing the relative merits of the investments implied by the various scenarios can be difficult and
the results are frequently ambiguous. Therefore, to come to an agreement calls for broad and well-
informed discussions. This will not happen unless there is a substantial cadre of people in each
country with the right skills who can talk to each other in the technical language that each of the
groups involved understands. This projects aims to assess the needed skill levels in each country,
identify the relevant skill gaps, and propose an approach to eliminate these gaps.
4. PROJECT SUMMARY
4.1. Project Components
The Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing project will include four major components:
Ø Scenario-building and socio-economic information bases
Ø Riparian dialogue for private sector cooperation and investment
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6 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
Ø Capacity-strengthening
Ø SVP monitoring
4.1.1. Scenario-Building and Socio-Economic Information Bases
Scenario-Building for Cooperative Nile Basin Development
Alternative Scenario Development. The development of alternative scenarios for cooperative Nile
Basin development, and for sharing benefits derived from cooperation, will be the central task of this
project. The process of scenario-building will bring together riparians from different sectors and
backgrounds from throughout the Basin to exchange ideas, to identify options for cooperation and
cross-border mutual support, to conceive further win-win cooperation opportunities, and to discuss
the principles upon which--and mechanisms through which--the benefits of cooperation could be
shared.
Scenario Themes. Although the detailed process and timetable for the development of these
scenarios will be confirmed as project implementation is underway, a broad approach is suggested
below. The themes might focus on:
Ø Sectoral development alternatives such as agriculture, energy, transport, or tourism
Ø Issues such as the principles and mechanisms for benefit-sharing, strategies for poverty
alleviation, gender concerns, the preservation of indigenous cultures, protecting the environment,
etc.
A Variety of Participants. The participants in the scenario-building activities will include government
planners, economists and policy specialists, sector ministry participants and technical experts from
both public and private sectors, national, regional and international investors, policymakers, cultural
leaders, academics, trainers and researchers, sociologists, representatives from key civic groups and
NGOs, advisors in legal and financial issues, and other relevant actors. Participation will be
determined based on the theme of the specific scenario development activity.
A Decentralized Approach. A regional project management unit (PMU) will be established to
coordinate the project and carry out the monitoring and capacity-building components discussed
below. The scenario-building component of the project will be decentralized, led by regional groups
established along thematic lines.
Scenario-building Undertaken by Thematic Working Group. A thematic working group will be
established for each of the scenario development activities (a maximum of five or six themes). The
thematic working groups will be asked to generate and analyze alternative development scenarios
focusing on their specific thematic area.
Scenario Report. Following meetings and analysis by the thematic working group on a particular
theme, selected consultants will be responsible for producing a scenario report which presents and
analyzes the various alternatives constructed by the thematic working group. The process of
producing the scenario reports might vary among the different thematic groups, but in general the
thematic working group, with the assistance of consultants, will prepare information bases (discussed
below) and compile relevant literature and case studies and hold one or more intensive workshops to
build the scenarios. The workshop(s) will be designed to achieve a brainstorming, learning-by-doing
environment to generate a broad range of visions. At the same time, the reports will strive to reflect
critical concerns of a wide variety of stakeholders and to include sound economic analyses, consider
the needs of disadvantaged group, recognize likely institutional, financial, and environmental
limitations, and clearly indicate risks and issues. The preparation process leading up to the scenario
development workshops might include stakeholder consultations, the compilation of relevant case
studies and other literature, and coordination with the socio-economic information component of this
project, discussed below, so that the information which will be made available as a preliminary output
of each component can provide input for the scenario-building workshops.
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 7
Emphasis on Possibilities and Visions--Not Official Positions. As mentioned above, the
thematic working groups will comprise a wide range of participants. The reports of the groups will
reflect the thoughts and visions of riparian experts, not the official views of any riparian government.
The reports will thus provide stimulus for exploration and engagement in further regional integration,
rather than officially-sanctioned development plans. The pace of scenario development is likely to
vary depending upon the nature of the issues chosen, specifically the level of complexity and
controversy.
Regional Networking--An Important By-Product of Exercise. The process of developing
scenarios will serve as an important networking and capacity-building vehicle for regional experts,
and provide an open forum for discussion of cooperative Basin development. The reports themselves
will further the discussion by disseminating the views and visions of a broad range of riparians across
the Basin.
Concluding Conference. A major conference will be held when all scenario reports are completed
to provide a forum for broad discussion of alternative development scenarios and recommendations
for future avenues of collaboration among the riparians--such as follow-up on SVP projects or
second generation SAP projects. Participants will include the Nile-TAC, other interested riparians,
and potential donors and investors as well as many of the broader stakeholder groups involved in the
Nile processes.
Socio-Economic Information Bases
Socio-Economic Information Bases. Socio-economic information bases will be developed to
compile data and information relevant to the scenario-building exercises. The contribution of
information bases will be to provide a shared information base upon which the theme-focused
development scenarios can be built, and to provide consistent socio-economic information to help
inform and substantiate the analysis of other SVP projects.
Information Categories. Based on inputs from the various national consultants and counterparts, the
project coordinating committee will agree on a list of information categories that the socio-economic
information bases should contain. The committee will further propose guidelines for data collection
and propose a timetable for completion of the exercise. This product will be submitted for review by
Nile-TAC.
The information categories may include:
Ø Policy and regulatory frameworks governing the use of water resources in the country
Ø Water utilization patterns in the framework of the country's overall development
Ø Traditions and customs relevant to the water resources of the Basin
Ø Social dependence and vulnerability related to water
Ø Role of the private sector in water resource development
Ø Current state of critical infrastructure
Ø Availability of public and private resources for water resource development and key sub-sectors
Ø Levels of technical, policy analysis, engineering, project management, and training/research
capacities related to the water sector
Ø National institutional frameworks for managing the various water sub-sectors
Ø Relevant environmental issues and policies
Ø Significant regional differences within the country
Ø Levels of public awareness and participation in water resource development.
Socio-Economic Data Collection. Following agreement on the information categories and the
guidelines for collecting and utilizing the data, national teams will compile the available information for
each of the categories, and assess the reliability, quality and usefulness of this information. The
exercise may be supported by national consultants. The sources will be the countries themselves,
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8 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
multilateral and bilateral agencies that have played a significant role in water resource development in
the Basin (World Bank, UNDP, FAO, GTZ, Italy, Netherlands, CIDA, etc.) and research literature.
Consolidation of Information. The completed socio-economic information bases will be submitted
to the project coordinating committee and eventually Nile-TAC for review. Both may review the quality
and completeness of the information bases and request follow-up where needed. The PMU will
consolidate the information into a basin-wide regional data base and construct a computerized
version of the composite regional information base and the individual information bases, which will be
readily updateable.
Utilization of the Socio-Economic Data. The information bases will be utilized as an essential
information source by the thematic working groups in the context of the scenario-building exercises.
The information will also be made available, as required, to other NBI projects and programs.
Coordination and Eventual Integration into Decision Support System (DSS). The NBI Water
Resources Project will design and establish a DSS which will include a basin-wide information
management system. The socio-economic information and data, as well as relevant scenario
information and reports, will be folded into that DSS once the DSS is established. Close coordination
with the DSS component will ensure data and knowledge compatibility.
4.1.2. Catalyzing Riparian Dialogue for Private Sector Cooperation and Investment
On the basis of work under the scenario development, this component will facilitate the creation of a
dialogue and an enabling environment which will create cross-riparian cooperation and investment
opportunities.
An "Incubator" for Cooperation. This activity will help identify areas for possible cooperation by
bringing together groups of people from the Nile River Basin who would be able to identify cross-
border and interregional investment and collaboration opportunities and barriers to their
implementation. The intention is for this process to act as a private sector and other stakeholder
cooperation "incubator" to foster broader regional integration in a wide variety of fields through the
encouragement of public-private partnerships and cooperation. The fields of cooperation could
include a variety of cooperation opportunities such as private-public partnerships, municipal twinning,
commercial joint ventures and institutional cooperation in areas such as agriculture, industry, tourism,
transport, telecom and cyber interests, etc. Activities in the project would thus focus on convening
such groupings in a variety of Nile regional workshops, forums, and other events to help spin out
private sector cooperation and investments within the identified sectors. Specific barriers and
obstacles to cooperation will be identified and proposals made to overcome these.
Fostering Regional Investment and Cooperation Opportunities. It is planned that a total of three
to five such fora will be held. The recommendations of these gatherings will help improve the realism
of scenario analysis. More importantly, the fora will help build public-private partnerships to maximize
investments in new projects and will facilitate business-to-business and people-to-people contacts
and cooperation around business opportunities identified and fostered. Finally, it is expected that
these gatherings will identify specific barriers to regional cooperation which could be brought to the
attention to the respective governments with the aim of removing these barriers so that cooperation
can proceed.
4.1.3. Capacity-Strengthening
Capacity-Strengthening in Macroeconomics, Policy Analysis, and Planning. The overarching
goal of the capacity-strengthening component is to build/strengthen capacity in the fields of
macroeconomics, policy analysis, and economic planning skills with a special emphasis on benefit-
sharing through regional cooperation.
This component will support two areas of activities; (a) an assessment and analysis of regional
capacity in the fields of macroeconomics, policy analysis, and economic planning skills, and (b)
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 9
implementation of a pilot capacity-building initiative focused on macroeconomics, policy analysis, and
economic planning skills with a special emphasis on benefit-sharing through regional cooperation.
Assessment and Analysis of Regional Capacity in Macroeconomics, Policy Analysis, and
Economic Planning Skills
Capacity Assessment Study. The capacity assessment will be carried out by a small consultancy
team (two to three consultants) who will visit the ten countries to meet and discuss with training
institutions which produce the policy specialists, such as universities, technical colleges, research
institutes, etc., as well as with institutions which draw on the policy specialists' expertise such as think
tanks, policy and research institutions, government departments, public interest groups, NGOs, and
the private sector.
Recommendations of Study. Based on these consultations, the study will identify and propose
specific regional collaboration actions in capacity-building (such as student exchanges, attachments,
university networking, joint curricula development, semester exchanges, regional training institutions,
collaborative research, all in the fields of macroeconomics, policy and planning).
Design Of Capacity-Building Component. Following review of the study by the project
coordinating committee, the consultants will prepare detailed activity plans, including budgets, for the
pilot activities which will be undertaken to meet the identified needs.
Capacity-Strengthening in Macroeconomics, Policy Analysis, and Planning
Pilot Capacity-Strengthening. This component aims to; (a) provide training, on a pilot basis, for
policy and planning experts who will be playing a lead role in planning and designing water sector
investments in their own countries, as well as those who will be working together on NBI
collaboration, (b) sensitize managers to the factors that need to be taken into account when planning
cooperative investments, (c) test the feasibility and benefits of collaborative training among the Nile
Basin countries, as a learning intervention on which to base longer-term capacity-building proposals,
and (d) build a cadre of policy analysis specialists who are exposed to the broader Nile collaboration
and to planning models which emphasize cooperative development and opportunities. The pilot will
focus on economic policy and analysis, planning, and benefit-sharing through regional cooperation
with a special emphasis on regional collaboration and attention to socio-economic impacts and
poverty alleviation.
Target Beneficiaries for Pilot Program. The pilot program will be designed following the
completion of the capacity assessment study but will likely involve; (a) the selection of one or more
training centers in the Nile Basin countries to operate during the pilot as regional locations for the
training, (b) a joint curriculum design and training faculty drawn from the collaborating Nile Basin
countries, (c) partnership with one or more specialized external agencies willing to work and assist
the faculty on location, (d) identification of those analysts and experts in the Nile countries who can
most benefit from such training, especially individuals assigned to work on the scenario development,
and (e) a careful impact evaluation of the pilot and recommendations for future capacity-building
efforts.
The Next Generation. It is hoped that over time, as pilot activities expand, this program will produce
hundreds of policy analysts in the Nile Basin working in their respective governments, research
institutes, academia, and in the private sector. Since many of them will know each other, either from
student days or through various subsequent contacts, and are familiar with one or more Nile Basin
countries beyond their own, they will form an especially competent and influential community of
interest and could become the champions for regional cooperation.
4.1.4. Shared Vision Program Integration and Monitoring Matrix
An InterRelated Program. The SVP consists of seven major projects, each of which will have a
special focus, a project framework, a set of specific outputs, and a project management team.
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10 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
However, many of the sectors are either interdependent or interrelated. Actions in one project could
affect outcomes or opportunities in another. There are also issues of balance and sequence in basin-
wide project planning. Most of the projects in the SVP portfolio have cross-cutting themes, for
example, structures and processes for intercountry cooperative action and capacity-building
requirements.
Integration and Monitoring Matrix. The work of the SVP monitoring component will be the design
and implementation of a computer-based monitoring matrix. The matrix will compile a summary work
program for all the SVP projects, and cover the expected outputs, monitoring milestones,
implementation schedules, and the impact evaluation indicators. A tracking and reporting mechanism
will be incorporated to update the matrix, and reports on progress and efforts to promote coordination
will be made available regularly. The goal is not to establish a mechanism for supervising these
projects nor an additional layer of bureaucracy that could slow down implementation. The intention of
this component is to provide a comprehensive monitoring mechanism that will enable policymakers
and donors to easily track progress and measure results of the overall SVP. Moreover, the SVP
monitoring component of this project will seek to promote among the SVP projects:
Ø Synergies and optimal sequencing
Ø Minimal duplication of effort
Ø The exchange and consistent use of available information, including the regional information base
and the scenario-building reports, in a manner acceptable to the Nile-TAC
Ø A recognition of intersectoral links and cross-cutting themes such as environmental standards,
poverty reduction requirements, fiscal sustainability measures, and efficiency concerns related to
the implementation of the SVP
Ø Coordinated efforts where practical, for example, in information-gathering and capacity-building.
This component will be implemented by the PMU. The unit's role in the coordination and integration of
the overall SVP suggests that it would be deemed desirable to be located at the Nile-SEC to facilitate
the Secretariat's coordination efforts and its reporting requirements with regard to the Nile-TAC and
Nile-COM.
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 11
Table 1. Summary and Indicative Costs of Socio-Economic Development
Program Project Components
COMPONENT AND OUTPUT
COMPONENT-LEVEL OUTPUTS
INDICATIVE
% OF
COSTS
TOTAL
(MILLION
$US)
Scenario-Building and Socio-
Scenario-building workshops exchanging information and
4
37%
Economic Information Bases
ideas on alternative development scenarios
Output: Both specialist and multi-
Scenario reports on alternative development paths for the
disciplinary fora established to generate
Basin, focused on specific themes
alternative development scenarios for
One or more workshop presenting the scenario reports and
the Basin
exploring future areas of effort for the NBI
Output: Country level information bases
Ten national level reports
compiled and consolidated
A consolidated regional information base
Riparian Dialogue for Private Sector
Public-private sector workshops and fora
1
9%
Cooperation and Investment
Output: 3 ­ 5 for a regional held to
foster public-private partnerships to
maximize investments and to identify
and remove specific barriers to regional
cooperation
Capacity-Srengthening
Capacity needs assessments
5
45%
Output: Assessment of capacity in
Pilot capacity-strengthening programs in economics, policy
macro-economics, policy analysis, and
analysis and planning with emphasis on benefit-sharing,
planning
regional integration, and cooperation
Output: Professionals from Nile Basin
trained in regional setting in fields of
economics, policy analysis, and
planning
SVP Monitoring
Construction and maintenance of a matrix to monitor and
1
9%
Output: A matrix of activities under the
integrate progress across the range of SVP projects
SVP established to monitor the overall
Production of periodic reports on the progress of the SVP
process
Coordination of the SVP projects
Project Total
11
100%
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12 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
Table 2. Project Design Summary (Logical Framework Analysis)
HIERARCHY OF OBJECTIVES
KEY PERFORMANCE
MONITORING AND EVALUATION
CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
INDICATORS
Project Development Objectives
Outcome/Impact Indicators
To enable riparians to form a range of
Participative development of a
Progress reports and internal
Participation of high level
development scenarios and specify the
range of cooperative scenarios,
evaluation reports where applicable
resource persons to
benefits accruing from their potential
appraised as viable and significant
Beneficiary assessment reports
establish country ownership
implementation
in their potential benefits, and
of the process
satisfying sound standards related
Continuous support and
to economic analysis, technical
guidance from senior
requirements, social and poverty
policymakers at country and
reduction goals, and
Nile-COM levels
environmental management
Effective integration
(content, timing, sequence)
of the various SVP projects
Output from Each Component
Component/Output Indicators
Scenario-Building and Creation of
Scenario-building workshops
Presentation and analysis of the
Availability of high quality
Socio-Economic Information Bases
exchanging information and ideas
alternative scenarios, paying
national resource persons to
Output: Specialist and Multi-disciplinary
on alternative development plans
attention to obstacles to their
participate in the compilation
forums established to generate
Creation of a consolidated regional
implementation and potential
of information bases and the
alternative development scenarios for
information base
benefits
development of scenarios
the Basin
Adoption of regional information
National level reports on work
Sound, collaborative
Output: Country-level information
base and scenarios by
submitted to assist in the creation of
mechanisms for reviewing
compiled and consolidated
policymakers and their subsequent
basin-wide scenarios
the information bases and
utilization in country-level
Progress reports on the development
scenarios at the technical
development strategies
of investment proposals
level and for having them
Riparian Dialogue for Private Sector
endorsed at the national and
Cooperation and Investment
Growing authority of public-private
Subsequent approval and financing
international levels
partnerships throughout the project
of projects based on these proposals
Output: Organizing 3-5 regional forums
period, evidenced by high level
Establishment of a
to foster public-private partnerships to
Progress reports on capacity analysis
acceptance of their proposals
decisionmaking structure, at
maximize investments and to identify
and capacity-building proposals
national and regional levels,
and remove specific barriers to regional
Evidence during the project period
External evaluation of the quality and
that can integrate proposals
cooperation
that elements of these
potential impact of the pilot capacity-
into national and regional
partnerships are being
strengthening programs
development plans
institutionalized
Capacity-Strengthening
Production and periodic reports on
Success at attracting
Agreement by national
the progress of the SVP
financiers and investors
Output: Assessment of capacity in
governments, Nile-TAC, and Nile-
macro-economic, policy analysis, and
COM on the results of the
Full participation of relevant
planning
assessment
national and regional
educational, training and
Output: Professionals from Nile Basin
Pilot capacity-strengthening
research institutions
trained in regional setting in fields of
programs in economics, policy
economics, policy analysis, and
analysis, and planning with
Securing the financing and
planning
emphasis on benefit-sharing,
participation of first-class
regional integration, and
external partner institutions
cooperation
Establishment of
SVP Monitoring
Construction and maintenance of a
responsibility for making
Output: A matrix of activities under the
matrix to monitor and integrate
inputs to the matrix by all
SVP established to monitor the overall
progress across the range of SVP
SVP projects, and for
process
projects
tracking progress by the
PMU, according to the
Successful coordination of the
matrix
SVP projects
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 13
4.2. Benefits and Target Population
The beneficiaries of the project outputs will include the people of the Nile Basin, their governments
and their government agencies, the private sector, NGOs, and the broader global community. If
cooperation and possible integration take root aided by this project, the chances for the success of
cooperative and joint development action and investments are considerably increased. Through
increased cooperation, joint investment and growing economic integration, conflict is likely to be
considerably reduced and regional stability enhanced, thereby helping to defuse an issue which has
been the source of tensions over generations.
The project is aimed specifically at putting in place a structure, processes, capacities, and an
essential information base for the SVP through which policy related capacities can be strengthened
and possible development scenarios developed. The specific target population of the project is the
NBI collaborative network--the policymakers, advisors, analysts, and technical specialists who are
striving to develop a cooperative program to optimize the use of Nile Basin resources for the benefit
of all countries in the region.
The project will provide a coordination framework for a large number of initiatives, and mobilize and
integrate the efforts of many participants from ten countries. Above all, through the project
mechanisms and key components, the project will help strengthen capacity for planning, scenario
development, and cooperative dialogue.
4.3. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements
The organizational structure for scenario-building is reflected in Figure 2. There could be up a total of
six thematic working groups working on the scenario development.
4.3.1. Institutional Arrangements
The proposed institutional structure for the project is illustrated by Figures 2 and 3. It is not the
intention of these charts to provide details on the project component implementation arrangements.
The main entities for project implementation are as follows:
The Nile Basin Initiative. The NBI transitional institutional structure, comprised of the Nile-COM, the
Nile-TAC, and supported by the Nile-SEC, will provide overall policy guidance to the project.
Project Coordination Committee (PCC). A project coordination committee will coordinate the work
of project implementation, provide strategic and technical guidance, and insure internal project
coordination. The committee will meet at least once a year and will be comprised of senior
planners/economists from the participating countries, representatives from external support agencies,
and scientific experts drawn in for specific advice on an as-needed basis. The project
coordinator/lead economist will serve as secretary to the committee.
Project Management Unit. A small PMU will implement the project in liaison with the Nile-SEC. The
PMU will consist of a project coordinator/lead economist (reporting to the PCC) and a projects officer,
plus relevant support staff. Additional support will be hired for specific tasks in the form of consultants.
4.3.2. Timing and Phasing
The total duration of the project will be six years although, it is anticipated that major activities of the
project will be implemented over a five year period. However, the SVP monitoring matrix will continue
through the completion of all SVP projects, an estimated six years. The precise number and the
actual timing of workshops and fora will be determined during project implementation. Table 3
depicts a possible implementation scenario.
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14 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
Table 3. Suggested Project Scheduling
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
YEAR 4
YEAR 5
YEAR 6
ACTIVITIES
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
Scenario building workshops
and reports
Socio-economic information
bases ­ national work
Socio-economic information
bases ­ consolidation work
Public-private sector
workshops and fora
Capacity needs assessment
Pilot capacity strengthening
SVP monitoring matrix
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 15
Nile-COM
Nile-TAC
Nile-SEC
Project Coordination Committee
Thematic
Thematic
Working
Working
Group A
Group E
Project Management Unit
Project Coordinator/
Lead Economist
Project Officer
(admin, travel, logistics, etc.)
Thematic
Thematic
Working
Working
Group B
Group D
Thematic
Working
Group C
Figure 2. The Scenario Development Component
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16 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
Nile-COM
Policy Level
Nile-TAC
Nile-SEC
Project Coordination Committee
Members: Natl. Focal Points, Donor Agencies,
Technical Input, etc.
Regional Coord. &
Management
Project Management Unit
*Note: The Integration/
Project Coordination/Lead Economist
Monitoring Matrix
Project Officer (admin, logistics, finance)
receives input from the
entire SVP, including the
three components of
the present project
Integration/ Monitoring Matrix*
Scenario Building/ Info Base
Capacity-Strengthening
Public-Private Part'ship. Fora
Thematic Regional Working
Individuals, Universities,
Business, Investors, Govts.,
Groups
Research Instits, Colleges, etc.
Municipalities, etc.
National
Economics, Planners, Line &
Policy and Planning Experts,
National level Business,
Level
Sector Ministries, NGOs,
Faculty, Students, etc.
Investors, Govts.,
Private Sector, etc.
Municipalities, etc.
Figure 3. Project Organizational Chart
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 17
5. PROJECT RATIONALE
5.1. Major Related Projects Financed by External Support Agencies (ESAs)
There are no related or comparable regional project initiatives which have undertaken scenario
development and capacity-building in the policy, planning, and economic fields. A number of the Nile
countries have received support for strengthening national level capacities in similar fields, however,
there has so far not been any regional activities with the explicit aim of exploring joint and cooperative
development opportunities.
5.2. Lessons Learned and Reflected in Proposed Project Design
Capacity-Building. The rationale for this project is based on some key lessons which have been
learned from past capacity-building projects in Africa and beyond. No training will be carried out until
the needs assessment has been completed. The training which will be undertaken will be formed and
designed on the basis of the findings of the needs assessment.
Multi-Country. A further lesson learned deals with the complexities of burdens specific to regional
projects by their very nature. Regional projects often have high overhead costs in view of the inherent
complexity of the undertaken tasks. Moreover, there is often a push for placing a project activity in
each participating country. The present project has been designed with minimum organizational
structures and will instead draw on consultancy expertise (preferably regional consultants) when
required. Moreover, in-country project activities (e.g., scenario development workshops, capacity-
strengthening efforts, etc.) will be located in countries based on the conclusion of the planning work,
with a view to balancing optimum results with the broadest possible geographical coverage.
Multi-Sectoral. In multi-sectoral programs, such as the SVP, there is often the danger of lack of
essential links, errors in sequencing, unbalanced investment, inconsistent policies, and a weak regard
for overarching priorities. Through the monitoring matrix, the present project provides mechanisms
which facilitates the continued integration and information flow between the various the SVP project
components. The project provides for a strong coordination process, under the overall management
of the Nile-SEC, Nile-TAC, and Nile-COM. This will ensure consistency, effectiveness, and
integration of the various sectoral activities undertaken through the SVP.
Multi-Component. Multi-component projects which may begin as an integrated effort, sometimes
break apart under pressure from donors who wish to earmark special interest groups or countries
among the beneficiaries. This may create dividing lines between government structures and sector
functions that have more to do with the structure of the donor agencies than the logic of the projects.
At other times, the splintering of the project comes as different donors special interests and priorities
are reflected in the project portfolio, thereby moving away from the original intent and priority of the
client governments in question. The present project strives to provide an organizing and structural
framework which aims to hold the various initiatives together and relate them to one another.
6. ISSUES REQUIRING SPECIAL ATTENTION
6.1. Economic Issues
Benefits of openness, integration, and cooperation between countries are potentially enormous and
wide-reaching. The difference in growth in the Nile Basin countries which protect their economies and
those which open up their economies and societies to new ideas, goods, services, and flows of
capital and labor, could be on the order of 1-2% per year. That is, with good policies but a relatively
closed economy, a Nile Basin country might achieve 5-6% GDP growth rate on a sustainable basis.
With good economic policies but also with openness towards its neighbors and the outside world,
GDP growth rate could arguably be raised to the 6-8% range. With a conservative estimate of 1%
difference Given that the combined GDP of the Basin countries currently stands around $120 billion
annually, the added growth from openness could mean at least $1.2 billion of extra goods and
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18 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
services every year. This number would grow with time. The reward for cooperation of this magnitude
is well worth the effort and represents a huge rate of return, even it it is assumed that the costs of
proposed cooperative projects are in the order of hundreds of millions (or even several billion) of
dollars.
The joint scenario development proposed in this project is one way of attracting the attention of Basin
policymakers to the benefits of potential collaboration. Trying to measure the benefits of activities and
assessing their implications in terms of technical, economic, social, and political feasibility, and having
different NBI members become advocates for collaboration, could contribute importantly to making
greater cooperation among countries a reality.
Development of partnerships between the public and the private sector in scenario-building with the
special focus on which investments are needed to make a given scenario a reality can turn shared
visions into action on the ground. These public-private forums would discuss what the private sector
investors would need to make them take the risks of investing in new ventures. In some cases, the
private investors may desire stable political and policy environments. In other cases they may need
reliable power supply, roads, transport, or other infrastructure that would, on the margin, raise the rate
of return on private investments. In still other cases, private investors may seek comfort through
coinvestment by the public sector. Finally, just the coordination of the various kinds of investment and
subsequent punctual delivery on the promises would, over time, convince the private investors that
even very large investments may pay off handsomely.
6.2. Technical Issues
The project will need a thorough and agreed information base that will be credible to the national
policymakers of the country in question and to its neighbors. Secrecy will need to be reduced over
time in order to build transparency and trust. If the information base on which the scenarios are to be
built are not credible to all involved, investments will not be forthcoming. Conversely, accurate and
credible information bases, updated on an as-needed basis, could become a major asset of the Nile
Basin countries and a boon to future cooperation.
People with various and sometimes quite complex sets of skills will be needed for scenario-building.
They will need to come from various disciplines, covering all aspects of development (social, political,
cultural, technological, etc.), not just economics. These groups will also need to be inspired, which
suggests that the top few individuals should not only be competent in some knowledge discipline, but
also carry some sort of informal authority (based on their past achievements) in their societies.
Therefore, they would possess some combination of attributes such as wisdom, a record of giving
sound advice, knowledge of political processes and how these might derail in their respective
societies, and be free to work outside of formal structures of power.
6.3. Environmental Issues
The project will deliver technical assistance, develop basin-wide dialogue, and help build institutional
and human capacities. The project does not involve physical investment works. To the contrary,
through the scenario development exercises, the project will add value to efforts toward sustainable
environmental protection and improvement of water management in the Nile Basin.
6.4. Participation Issues
The NBI effort so far has shown an exemplary level of participation at all levels. There has been
strong political commitment from the riparian states. Key stakeholders in the Nile Basin, as well as
key external parties, have been involved in all the stages of the Initiative. Innumerable workshops and
meetings have taken place in order to forge consensus in support of the Initiative and to keep the
process inclusive. This project, in all its components, is designed to build on and deepen the
participatory approach by involving an ever wider circle of participants. By its very nature, the process
of building scenarios about the future will need to involve the representatives who would live in that
future. In many ways, the process of design and implementation is more important than the ultimate
outcome.
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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 19
7. SUSTAINABILITY AND RISKS
7.1. Sustainability
Funding of Regional Institutions. The Nile riparian countries have made a conscious decision to
self-finance the basic set-up of the regional secretariat. Currently, countries are each contributing an
equal amount annually to the budget of the Nile-SEC. This decision was made to assure true
ownership and control of the process. Beyond financing the current basic set-up of the Nile-SEC
through direct riparian government contributions, additional cost recovery mechanisms will be
explored.
Internalizing Scenario Development Actions. This project presents the first opportunity for the ten
Nile riparian countries to come together to think about future development paths and economic
planning options. It requires bold and visionary participation and an ability to think beyond the present
and more immediate obstacles and difficulties. As the scenario development activities envisaged
under the project are set into place, and as Nile cooperation intensifies, it is expected that the skills
and tools which this project will be providing each of the participating countries will be internalized to
the ongoing planning processes. Such internalization would indeed be a true measure of success, not
only of this project, but in large measure of the broader NBI.
Project Ownership. Sustainability of project initiatives will greatly depend on the approach adopted
during project design and implementation. First and foremost is the question of project ownership.
Through a resolutely participatory process of project design, every effort has been made to ensure
that riparian country stakeholders genuinely "own" the project. As the project moves into the
implementation stage, it is vital that a broad set of stakeholders are involved, including the private
sector, academia, policy research institutions, investors, NGOs, etc. These and other key
stakeholders will need to be genuinely engaged in the project implementation and encouraged to take
on ownership. Project ownership will also be demonstrated through continued national commitment to
the Nile Basin institutional set-up.
Tangible Benefits. Another important concern is whether the project outcomes will indeed result in
tangible benefits for participants. It is recognized that the initial beneficiaries of the project will be
those who participate in scenario-building or capacity-building activities. For long-term sustainability,
the project benefits must impact the behavior of investors, government regulators, and policymakers
at the national and regional levels.
Regional Cooperation. Project sustainability requires that the growing Nile cooperation be
maintained and strengthened among the Nile Basin countries. Among the riparians there is a strong
commitment and a clear notion of "crossing the Rubicon," a sense that so much has already been
invested in the NBI, that it must succeed for the process to move forward. Regional commitment to
the process is high, with the specifics of the cooperation anchored in the policy guidelines endorsed
by the Nile Council of Ministers. The core institutions governing the overall NBI (Nile-COM, Nile-TAC
and Nile-SEC) as well as the policy guidelines, have emphasized the importance of transparent
operational procedures, open communication networks, and information sharing as key principles to
guide long-term regional cooperation.
7.2. Critical Risks
Commitment of the Nile Basin Countries. The project success will be critically dependent on each
countries continued commitment to the collaboration with other Nile Basin member countries, and to
achieving the objectives of the SVP as laid down by the Nile-TAC. This is intimately related to political
stability in the region. Many countries in the region are facing war, political uncertainty, extreme
poverty, diseases, etc. All these conditions are not conducive to a long-term project aimed at
improving an enabling environment on a regional basis. On the other hand, the SVP and other NBI
projects seek to contribute towards building trust among the Nile Basin countries. It is therefore of
crucial importance that this process has tangible benefits. The emphasis on regional cooperation, the
collaborative efforts that have been made to design the project, and the resulting regional ownership
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20 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
are powerful instruments for not only achieving the project's objectives, but also for accomplishing the
longer-term trust and understanding.
Institutional Leadership. The project critically depends on the capability of government institutions
and staff to provide visionary leadership. This may not be forthcoming in a setting where there is
general lack of incentives for staff, research and innovation, and supporting infrastructure. Through
regional workshops, training, exchange visits, and consultations the project endeavors to create
institutional capacity and leadership that will form the basis for implementation of project activities. It
should be pointed out that the project intends to seek visionary leadership within, and not outside, the
boundaries of the Nile Basin.
Regional Coordination Capacity. The institutions of the NBI supported by the Nile-SEC have
effectively managed a complex, multi-country sectoral process to prepare the seven projects of the
SVP. This demonstrates capacity for basin-wide coordination. Effective implementation of the SVP
projects will be a challenge. The creation of a strong PMU has been incorporated into the project
design while the continued strengthening of the regional capabilities of the NBI institutions will be
addressed at the SVP level.
Insecurity and Conflict. Seven of the ten countries in the Nile region are at present, or have
recently been, involved in internal or external conflict. This brings both operational as well as political
risks to a process and a project of this size. However, there is an awareness at the highest political
levels of the Nile countries of the possibilities of a "cooperation and peace dividend" which the
broader NBI can leverage. Thus, there is a high-level commitment to maintaining the momentum of
the process in spite of the political landscape and reality of the moment. Leaders in the Nile Basin
countries have made it clear that they see the NBI as a tremendous opportunity to bring further
cooperation, economic exchange, and eventually greater integration and interdependence which can
yield high returns in terms of growth, food security, sustainable development, and peace.
8. PROJECT PREPARATION PROCESS
The preparation of the Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing Project, as well as the
other projects within the SVP project portfolio, was directed by the institutions of the NBI and involved
the active participation of technical experts from across the Basin. This complex, multi-country, multi-
sectoral process (described below) demonstrates riparian ownership and commitment to successful
project implementation.
8.1. Evolution of the Shared Vision Program: A Coordinated Basin-Wide
Program
The SVP evolved from four thematic areas, or pillars, as described in the NBI policy guidelines to a
coordinated program of seven basin-wide projects between February 1999 and December 2000. The
process summarized in Table 4 was executed and coordinated by the Nile-SEC, involved active
participation of and guidance from the Nile-TAC, and received formal endorsement by the Nile-COM
at critical milestones.
The final portfolio of SVP projects includes:
Ø Nile Transboundary Environmental Action
Ø Nile Basin Regional Power Trade
Ø Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production
Ø Water Resources Planning and Management
Ø Confidence-Building and Stakeholder Involvement (Communications)
Ø Applied Training
Ø Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing.
NILE-SEC

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Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing 21
Four of these are thematic projects--focusing on environment, power, agriculture, and water
resources management--and three are facilitative projects related to confidence-building and
stakeholder involvement, training, and macro-economics. The thematic projects aim to provide a
technical foundation, including common analytical frameworks, practical tools and demonstrations,
and human capacity to support regional cooperation. The facilitative projects serve to forge a
common vision and ensure long-term sustainability. The projects build on each other and together will
serve to provide an enabling environment for cooperative development.
The SVP projects are linked to each other and to the SAPs in important ways. For example, the
information management system of the DSS component of the water resources project will provide a
common communication platform and information management system for all SVP projects. The
regional river basin planning model of the DSS component will provide a tool for interacting with other
sectors, such as environment and power, and integrating these issues in the identification and
evaluation of potential SAP projects. At the same time, the benefit-sharing project will develop and
evaluate socio-economic development scenarios, which will provide the context for potential river
development alternatives. The project planning component of the water resources project will provide
important skills to ensure successful implementation of SVP projects and the identification, planning,
and management of SAP projects. The Benefit-Sharing Project will also coordinate with the Applied
Training and other SVP projects to share knowledge and expertise as relevant.
8.2. Detailed Project Preparation: A Multi-Country, Multi-Sectoral,
Participatory Process
As noted above, detailed preparation of the individual projects in the SVP was driven by Nile-TAC,
coordinated by Nile-SEC, and involved significant substantive input by Nile-TAC members, as well as
national experts from each country. The project preparation process created a forum for interaction
among the technical experts from different water-related sectors across the Basin. As such, the
project preparation process has laid the foundation for broad-based support for project
implementation. It is also worthwhile to note that for many it was the first time that they were able to
discuss common concerns with their colleagues from their neighboring and co-riparian countries.
Preparation of each of project was supported by a lead consultant and a "focal point" of the World
Bank/UNDP/CIDA Nile Team.
As the present project is designed to draw on the other SVP projects, the design process for the
present project varied slightly from that of the SVP. The project did not have the benefit of national
experts, but was rather designed in direct consultation with Nile-TAC members. The first concept note
was reviewed in Entebbe in 1999 and was subsequently discussed at the Nile-TAC meeting in the
Hague in March 2000. The lead consultant visited a number of Nile countries during the period
March­July 2000 to consult further on the project contents. At the Addis Ababa meeting in July 2000,
Nile-TAC reviewed the project further and discussed the project components.
NILE-SEC

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22 Socio-Economic Development and Benefit-Sharing
Table 4. Preparation of the Shared Vision Program
DATE
MEETING
LOCATION
KEY OUTCOMES
TYPE
July 1998
Nile-TAC
Dar es Salam,
Drafting of policy guidelines that define the SVP and 4 major
Tanzania
thematic areas of the program
Feb 1999
Nile-COM and
Dar es Salam,
Adoption of the NBI policy guidelines, and instruction by Nile-COM
Nile-TAC
Tanzania
to prepare a portfolio of priority SVP projects for ICCON
May 1999
SVP Planning
Sodere, Ethiopia
Preliminary list of priority projects, including project goals and
Meeting
objectives, based on consultation and brainstorming by Nile-TAC
members and two additional sectoral experts from each country
May 1999
Nile-COM and
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Approval of list of priority projects and project preparation process
Nile-TAC
Sept 1999
Nile-TAC
Entebbe, Uganda
Based on output from Sodere planning meeting, development of
project concept notes for seven priority projects and approval of a
detailed project preparation process and schedule for each project
Dec 1999
Project
Entebbe, Uganda
Review and further development of draft project concept
Preparation 1
notes/documents by working groups (WGs). For each project, the
WGs included a Nile-TAC member and national expert(s) from
each country. A total of eight national experts were involved from
each country. Each project was assisted by a lead consultant.
Dec 1999 ­
National
Nile Basin countries
Lead consultants together with national experts prepare draft
Nov 2000
Analysis &
project documents. Depending on the project and country, national
Consultations
experts provided inputs through preparation of national reports,
country consultations, and/or country visits by lead consultants
Jan 2000
Nile-TAC
Entebbe, Uganda
Review of progress in project preparation and further refinement of
project concepts as warranted
Mar 2000
Nile-TAC
Delft, the Netherlands
Review of progress in project preparation and further refinement of
project concepts/design as warranted
July 2000
Project
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
Review and further development of detailed draft project
Preparation 2
documents by working group members for each project and Nile-
TAC members
Aug 2000
Nile-COM and
Khartoum, Sudan
Approval of SVP project portfolio and updated project summaries
Nile-TAC
Oct 2000
Nile-TAC
Via electronic mail
Review of draft final project documents
Dec 2000
Distribution of
Via express mail and
Distribution of all English draft final project documents to all Nile-
draft final
electronic mail
TAC members (French versions sent February 2001)
project
documents
Mar 2001
Nile-COM
Khartoum, Sudan
Final approval of SVP project portfolio and project documents
NILE-SEC

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