Annex 1B: Incremental Costs/Complete Matrix

Component

Objective

Cost Category

Cost

Domestic Benefits

Global Environmental Benefits

Source

($ million)

I. Co-ordination, institutional capacity building and legal reform

1. Support the integration of a sustainable Secretariat for the Bucharest Convention

Baseline

National central govts.

360,000

Work on national Black Sea issues related to the implementation of the Bucharest Convention is focussed in Ministries of the Environment and in Regional Environmental Inspectorates.

Any action taken at a national level that results in a reduction of nutrient inputs or hazardous substances or that protects natural areas will generate some regional benefits even though the actions are focussed on solving priorities problems of national concern.

Env. Inspectorates etc.

720,000

TOTAL

1,080,000

Alternative

3,194,700

Full sustainable implementation of the Bucharest Convention will result in tangible improvements to water quality and beaches throughout the Black Sea region. This will facilitate the redevelopment of tourism as well as a potential for aquaculture that is not possible under present conditions. Wild fisheries should also improve.

The Black Sea includes unique habitats and associated biological diversity of global significance that are threatened under present conditions. The current state of eutrophication impacts adjacent systems (the Aegean) and the Black Sea may be a staging post for the spread of opportunistic species to other enclosed systems. The project will help to preserve Black Sea habitats and reduce the environmental impact on other systems.

Increment

GEF

936,700

ICBS

800,000

Govt. of Turkey

150,000

Govts. to ACs

200,000

BSEC Environmental Group

28,000

TOTAL

2,114,700

2. Regional actions for improving LBA legislation to control eutrophication and for tackling emergent problems

Baseline

ICBS WG Specialists

10,000

Current regional legislation does not place particular emphasis on eutrophication or the integrated management of Land-Based activities. Countries are unable to take unilateral action to resolve these problems.

The lack of a clear emphasis on nutrient control in the current Land-Based Sources Protocol to the Bucharest Convention does not provide an adequate framework for addressing this problem. Furthermore, there are no provisions for understanding and modeling emergent problems in order to take the anticipatory approach called for in the BS-SAP.

Local specialists for futures WG

20,000

TOTAL

30,000

Alternative

245,000

Improved regional legislation will provide a framework for taking joint action to solve problems that impinge on the economies of all Black Sea States. The anticipatory approach will save the high costs of mitigation of environmental problems in the future. The MEH will reduce the risk of costly accidents.

Successful implementation of the GPA in the Black Sea will contribute greatly to its global aims and objectives. Similarly, the study of emergent transboundary problems will serve as a case study for GIWA implementation. The MEH is replicable and will help to reduce the risk to biological diversity.

Increment

GEF

160,000

UNEP (GPA)

15,000

UNEP (GIWA)

40,000

TOTAL

215,000

II. Sectoral legal and policy reforms, monitoring and evaluation of nutrient control measures and reviewing targets for adaptive management

3. Assist countries to improve their knowledge of the process of eutrophication in the Black Sea

Baseline

BS Research Insts. (in-kind)

240,000

Capacity for conducting studies of the environmental situation in the Black Sea has deteriorated radically since the beginning of the 1990s. Many national programmes have been discontinued.

Current knowledge of eutrophication in the Black Sea is based upon sporadic studies and does not provide a sufficient knowledge base for reducing management uncertainties. The availability of reliable information underpins the development of regional response strategies. Current institutional capacity is sufficient for providing basic information but funds and co-ordination are lacking for conducting a proper baseline study. There are currently no international studies underway.

Other Research Insts. (in-kind)

320,000

Satellite monitoring centre (in-kind)

100,000

Meteorological stations (in Kind)

72,000

TOTAL

947,000


Alternative

1,619,000

Any measurement of project success in reducing eutrophication must be compared with a reliable historical baseline. The present activity will ensure that each country has such a baseline.

A full set of measurements of the current state of the Black Sea at an early stage in project development. These measurements will enable better focusing of project and national resources. The inclusion of satellite measurements of plant pigments will enable all Black Sea specialists to have access to recent technology and to be able to increase general understanding of the temporal changes in eutrophication and its response to natural and human driving forces.

Increment

GEF

660,000

WMO

[12,000]

TOTAL

672,000

4. Introduce new sectoral policies and a system of process, stress reduction and environmental status indicators for monitoring the effectiveness of measures to control eutrophication (and hazardous substances where appropriate)

Baseline

Sector specialists etc.

80,000

Present day reductions in nutrient loads have resulted from economic failure rather than from targeted action. The coastal countries are becoming aware of the domestic benefits of a cleaner seas but the connections between the costs and the benefits has not been demonstrated in a manner that will stimulate a sectoral response. There is no system of indicators to provide decision-makers with clear demonstrations of these connections. The nutrient emissions from coastal countries are likely to rise as economies recover, unless new practices are adopted.

Rising trends in nutrient emissions will lead to further increases in eutrophication and will reverse any positive trends in ecosystem recovery. The present lack of indicators will not facilitate a co-ordinated pro-active response from the coastal countries. A similar situation exists with hazardous substances (especially oil).

National M & E institutions

1,200,000

Technical focal points

32,000

Current bilateral Country assistance

[240,000]

National programmes under EU Accession Programme

[4,000,000]

TOTAL

5,552,000

Alternative

7,497,000

New sectoral policies will: (a) help sectors to increase resource usage efficiency and reduce waste; (b) benefit national protected areas and the development of tourism, and (c) help countries seeking accession to the EU to meet the requirements of its environmental directives.

The effective reduction of nutrient inputs to the Black Sea, enabling countries to meet their obligations to keep nutrient emissions to their 1997 levels. This component will also enable compliance and ecosystem response to be monitored.

Increment

GEF

905,000

Tacis

[800,000]

UNDP

[240,000]

TOTAL

1,945,000


5. Support the Commission in their periodic review of Adaptive Management objectives.

Baseline

Technical focal points

8,400

Agreement on a “cap” on nutrient emissions at their 1997 level is a temporary measure as a first step in a process of adaptive management. When fully institutionalized and benefits begin to accrue at a country level, it should provide a new baseline for future incremental adjustments.

Bi-annual state of the Black Sea reports will demonstrate the degree of effectiveness of the initial “cap”.

ICBS

40,000

Nation economic institutions

12,000

TOTAL

60,400

Alternative

220,400

A new set of practical measures based upon benefit/cost studies of the sectoral masterplans.

New practical targets for nutrient control based upon the results of Objective 5 (and the benefit/cost studies) will ensure optimal incremental benefits at a regional and global level.

Increment

GEF

120,000

Tacis

[40,000]

TOTAL

160,000

III. Supporting public involvement in nutrient control

6. Assist the public in implementing activities to reduce eutrophication through a programme of grants for small projects and support to regional NGOs.

Baseline

Black Sea NGO funds

424,520

A number of public initiatives, mostly by NGOs are successfully mobilizing support for environmental initiatives, mostly focused on tangible issues of local concern.

NGOs and the public in general are not widely engaged in regional or global environmental protection in the Black Sea region, particularly with respect to the issue of eutrophication.

WWF

48,000

TOTAL

472,520

Alternative

1,142,520

Increased engagement of local people in environmental issues in the coastal zone. This should also improve the likelihood of success of national strategies and increase sustainability of actions to protect the environment.

Measurable reduction of nutrient emissions or increase in service functions of natural systems as a result of small projects with a high level of public involvement.

Increment

GEF

470,000

Tacis

[200,000]

TOTAL

670,000


IV. Innovative economic instruments for the control of eutrophication

7. Formulate proposals for market-based or alternative economic instruments for limiting nutrient emissions and establish private-public sector partnerships for environmental protection in the Black Sea.

Baseline

Government sectoral specialists

80,000

Current funding for all projects for environmental protection is very limited. This is partly due to the disconnection of environmental issues and their solutions from other sectors of the national economy. Economic instruments exist in many cases but are applied inefficiently. There is almost no attention to nutrient reduction. This situation is unlikely to change without incentives and a coordinated approach. Funding for private/public sector partnerships is growing in importance but has not been applied to many projects with environmental benefits.

Current coordination of financial instruments to protect the Black Sea is virtually non-existent. The slight improvement in the state of the Black Sea is a result of economic failure but will be reversed as economies strengthen unless appropriate instruments are agree and enforced.

Private institutions

120,000

Regional associations and banks

48,000

Bilateral donors (project preparation)

600,000

EU Accession Programme (estimate)

[800,000]

TOTAL

1,648,000

Alternative

3,140,000

Effective economic instruments should increase revenues to treasuries (or to National or municipal Environmental Funds) and help to change wasteful practices. A clear demonstration of “willingness to borrow” and “ability to pay” will make it easier to obtain loans for improving waste treatment and environmental management. This will result in a wide range of economic benefits (fisheries, tourism, public health, etc.).

Economic instruments are an essential part of any strategy to protect the transboundary environment. Market mechanisms or alternatives could promote international co-operation. Global benefits will be from the reduction of eutrophication and the protection of biological diversity. The success of this component will result in longer-term sustainability of the project outputs.

Increment

GEF

292,000

Tacis

[1,200,000]

TOTAL

1,492,000

V. Sustainable exploitation of fish stocks as part of an ecosystem approach

8. A fishery exploited within its maximum sustainable yield and incorporating measures to protect ecologically sensitive areas.

Baseline

Government fisheries agencies and institutions

288,000

Catches are declining in all Black Sea countries and their economic value is declining at a faster pace due to the change in catch composition. The sector is overcapitalised and there are few effective regulations to control destructive fishing practices.

Serious transboundary conflicts have emerged as more fishermen seek less fish. Several human deaths have occurred in the past two years. The overfishing of predator species coupled with destructive practices is threatening biological diversity (e.g. from habitat destruction and by-catch of mammals).

Research insts.

60,000

ICBS Biodiversity and FisheriesWG specialists

12,000

TOTAL

360,000

Alternative

740,000

A properly regulated fishery will increase the yield of high-value species and improve the quality of catch composition and economic revenue. The total yield of the fishery and number of vessels must decrease in order for this to happen.

Fish are an important part of the Black Sea ecosystem. A more sustainable fisheries management regime, coupled with measures to protect habitats, will enable the system to recover as nutrient levels are reduced. It may also help to avoid further invasions of opportunistic species.

Increment

GEF

160,000

BSEC (meetings)

20,000

Tacis

[200,000]

TOTAL

380,000

TOTAL BASELINE

10,149,920

ALTERNATIVE

18,444,840

INCREMENT:

8,294,920

Consisting of:
PDF-B

349,920

GEF Project Funding

3,703,700

Project Support Costs (8%)

296,300

CO-FUNDING FROM BLACK SEA COUNTRIES (ICBS)

1,150,000

Tacis

[2,440,000]

UNDP

240,000

UNEP

55,000

Other UN

60,000


Converted with Word to HTML.